The impact of the demise of USAID on
global health is wide-reaching. A study published in
The Lancet on June 30, 2025, estimated that funding cuts and the abolition of the agency could result in at least 14 million preventable deaths by 2030, 4.5 million of which could be among children under 5 years old.
PEPFAR and HIV medication The Lancet study concluded that the discontinuation of
PEPFAR alone could cause as many as 10.75 million new HIV infections and as many as 2.93 million deaths related to HIV. The study warned that for low and middle-income countries, "the resulting shock would be similar in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict." Another study published in March 2025 concluded that the suspension of PEPFAR could result in HIV-related deaths surging to as high as 630,000 per year. Christine Stegling, deputy executive director at
UNAIDS, estimated that there could be a 400% increase in AIDS-related deaths around the world if
PEPFAR was not formally reauthorized for USAID funding, which represents around 6.3 million AIDS-related deaths within four years. In 2024, PEPFAR funds accounted for 14% of the entire health budget of Zimbabwe.
Breastfeeding and maternal health USAID-funded breast feeding programs to reduce malnutrition in Nepal were brought to a halt following the aid freeze on January 20, 2025. According to Pio Smith,
UNFPA's Asia-Pacific regional director, the USAID freeze could lead to 1,200 maternal deaths and 109,000 additional unwanted pregnancies in the next three years in Afghanistan.
March USAID memo A USAID info memo written by Nicholas Enrich, Acting Assistant Administrator for Global Health, dated March 4, 2025, outlined the risks of the aid freeze. He stated that a permanent suspension of lifesaving humanitarian aid posed a direct threat to public health, economic stability, national security and biothreat vulnerability. He concluded: "Any decision to halt or significantly reduce global health funding for lifesaving humanitarian assistance (LHA)—despite approved waivers—and USAID global health programming, despite congressional mandates, would have severe domestic and global consequences." Enrich was notified that he was put on administrative leave less than 30 minutes after the memo's publication, a decision that had reportedly been made a week prior.
Cases refuting claim that no one has died Pe Kha Lau, 71, died after she was discharged from a USAID-funded healthcare facility operated by the
International Rescue Committee (IRC) while still relying on oxygen to survive. In the Umpiem Mai camp in Thailand, witnesses reported the deaths of multiple patients who too relied on oxygen. The IRC offered their condolences to the family and friends of Pe Kha Lau.
Nicholas Kristof also documented evidence contradicting Elon Musk's claim that "No one has died as a result of a brief pause to do a sanity check on foreign aid funding. No one."
Incineration of emergency food In July 2025
The Atlantic reported that the order had been given to incinerate nearly 500
metric tons of emergency food. Citing former and current government employees,
The Atlantic wrote that USAID had already bought the food, some $800,000 of
high-energy biscuits (a stopgap measure for feeding children under 5) for the
World Food Programme to distribute in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Instead, it remained in a warehouse in Dubai for months, was set to expire the day after the report, and would deteriorate quickly and be incinerated at a cost of $130,000. Employees could no longer ship the food without the permission of the new heads of American foreign assistance, which had been requested repeatedly.
The Atlantic cited the sources as saying that improper storage or delivery complications such as floods or terrorism might previously have cost the agency a few dozen tons of
fortified foods a year at most, and that they'd never before seen the U.S. government give up on food that could have been put to good use.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified before the House Appropriations Committee in May that the food would be distributed before spoiling.
The Atlantic's reporter stated she'd reviewed the incineration order, which had been given by the time of Rubio's testimony.
Waste of mpox vaccines According to
Africa CDC nearly 800,000 doses of
mpox vaccine the Biden administration had pledged to donate to African countries could not be shipped because their remaining
shelf life had fallen below six months, which Africa CDC described as the minimum time required to ship vaccines in order to ensure arrival in good condition and allow implementation.
Politico noted that the loss of the shots came after the Trump administration cut back on foreign aid programs and closed USAID, and that although the U.S. had not disclosed their price,
UNICEF described a price of "up to $65" per dose as "the lowest price in the market".
Incineration of contraceptives In July 2025
Reuters, citing unnamed sources and a
screenshot, reported that
contraceptive implants, pills, and
intrauterine devices worth $9.7 million would be incinerated. Reuters had reported in June that contraceptives meant largely for vulnerable women in
Sub-Saharan Africa, including young girls who face higher risks from pregnancy as well as those fleeing conflict or who could not otherwise afford or access contraceptives, had been warehoused in Belgium and Dubai for months following Trump's cuts to foreign aid and USAID. In its July article Reuters reported that the Belgian stockpile would be incinerated in France as medical waste, costing $160,000 and likely comprising "dozens of truckloads". The Belgium foreign ministry told Reuters it had "explored all possible options to prevent the destruction" and would keep trying. Reuters reported that the
United Nations Population Fund (UNPFA) tried to buy the contraceptives. However, the fact that contraceptives were embossed with the USAID trademark was a problem, as was the way the U.S. could not ensure UNFPA would not share them with groups offering abortions, violating the
Mexico City policy Trump had reinstated in January. Sarah Shaw,
nonprofit MSI Reproductive Choices' Associate Director of Advocacy, told Reuters the organization had volunteered for pay for repackaging the supplies to remove USAID branding, shipping them, and for import duties, but the U.S. government declined, saying it would only sell the supplies at full market value. Shaw added that this was "clearly not about saving money." A source in this Reuters article concluded that "Washington did not want any USAID-branded supplies to be rerouted elsewhere." created an impact counter to estimate the life toll of funding cuts on various USAID health programs. By February 2026, the Impact Counter Dashboard was retired, since it had been built to project the impact over the course of one year. The numbers were kept at the one-year mark from when the cuts began: 781,343 deaths caused by the funding discontinuation, of which 518,428 were children. "The impacts we tracked are not over. The consequences of these cuts continue to unfold in communities around the world."
Malaria The
President's Malaria Initiative, started with help from
George W. Bush, has contributed to a more than 60% reduction in malaria deaths, saved 7.6 million lives, and prevented 1.5 billion malaria cases globally between 2000 and 2019. PMI has supported malaria prevention and control for over 500 million at-risk people in Africa. However, the USAID funding of PMI has been cut an estimated 47% as of June 2025. In countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), these funds had supported the supply of antimalarial drugs to numerous health zones, including preventive treatments for pregnant women. Health officials in the DRC reported that the effects of these cuts were already being felt, with increased risk of severe illness and death from malaria among vulnerable populations. == $8 billion "claw back" for USAID but not PEPFAR ==