Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election. == National poll results ==

Most opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru stands candidates only in Wales and the Scottish National Party stands candidates only in Scotland. Due to rounding, total figures may not add up to 100%. The lead is calculated by subtracting the polling percentage of the first party (shaded in the party's colour, and in bold) by that of the second party (shaded in grey). 2026 2025 2024 == Seat projections ==

326 seats are needed for a majority. The party with the most seats is shaded in its colour, and where a party reaches the majority threshold, in bold. The party with the second-most seats is shaded in grey. All polls so far have been conducted excluding the 18 seats in Northern Ireland. Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) is the most common methodology for projecting seats nationally. Multiple polling companies have conducted such polling and modelling for the next election, these are tabulated below. Also included are some polls compiled via Political Analysis through Regional and Local Insights System (POLARIS), a novel model created by JL Partners which uses council by-elections to predict election outcomes. POLARIS polls from January 2025 onwards are also combined with a representative survey data, with the data used shifted to reflect the pollster's most recent national polling. == Sub-national poll results ==

Scotland Wales 100 most rural constituencies In November 2024, Survation conducted a survey of the 100 "most rural" constituencies. Northern England and the Midlands In April 2025, Survation conducted a survey of Northern England and the Midlands. London Greater Manchester == Individual constituency poll results ==

=== Gorton and Denton === Hypothetical: With Andy Burnham as the Labour candidate In the run-up to the 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election, Mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham launched a bid to become the Labour candidate, leading to speculation that he could mount a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer. However, on 25 January 2026, Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC) blocked Burnham from standing for the party. === Runcorn and Helsby === == Hypothetical scenarios==

Different Conservative Party leaders: voting intention and seat projection For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives. Tactical voting scenarios YouGov has conducted polling on scenarios wherein only two parties appear to have a chance of winning a constituency. With under-18s In July 2025, the Government announced their intention to reduce the voting age to 16 before the next general election. Following this, some pollsters conducted polling including 16–17-year-olds, although the voting age has not yet been reduced by law. National poll results including 16–17-year-olds Polling solely among 16–17-year-olds Some pollsters also conducted polling solely among 16–17-year-olds, or broke out an oversample of this group. Polling solely among 13–17-year-olds Merlin Strategy conducted polling solely among those who would be eligible to vote in 2029, the latest possible date for the election. Including Your Party prior to formation In 2025, Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana founded a new political party, called Your Party. Prior to the announcement of these plans, polling was carried out about the idea for a hypothetical new party. After the announcement of the plan for a new party, more polling was carried out. Seat projections (MRP polls) 326 seats needed for a majority. Including Restore Britain prior to registration In June 2025, former Reform MP Rupert Lowe launched a political organisation called "Restore Britain", advocating a harder line on immigration than Reform UK. Find Out Now were asked by the organisation to poll on a hypothetical new party led by Lowe. In February 2026, Lowe announced that Restore Britain would become a political party. Great Yarmouth Additionally, a poll was commissioned for the constituency of Great Yarmouth for a new (although unregistered at the time) party "Great Yarmouth First" led by Lowe. The sample size of this poll was significantly smaller than standard polling leading to a wider margin of error. Great Yarmouth First was registered with the Electoral Commission as a political party on 4 March 2026. == See also ==