Due to the
COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant decline in energy usage worldwide in 2020, but total energy demand worldwide had recovered by 2021, and has hit a record high in 2022. In 2022, consumers worldwide spent nearly USD 10 trillion on energy, averaging more than USD 1,200 per person. This reflects a 20% increase over the previous five-year average, highlighting the significant economic impact and the increasing financial burden of energy consumption on a global scale.
IEA scenarios In World Energy Outlook 2023 the IEA notes that "We are on track to see all fossil fuels peak before 2030"
. The IEA presents three scenarios:
Alternative scenarios The goal set in the
Paris Agreement to
limit climate change will be difficult to achieve. Various scenarios for achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals have been developed, using IEA data but proposing transition to nearly 100% renewables by mid-century, along with steps such as reforestation. Nuclear power and carbon capture are excluded in these scenarios. The researchers say the costs will be far less than the $5 trillion per year governments currently spend subsidizing the fossil fuel industries responsible for climate change. In the
+2.0 C (global warming) Scenario total primary energy demand in 2040 can be 450 EJ = 10,755 Mtoe, or 400 EJ = 9560 Mtoe in the
+1.5 Scenario, well below the current production. Renewable sources can increase their share to 300 EJ in the
+2.0 C Scenario or 330 EJ in the
+1.5 Scenario in 2040. In 2050 renewables can cover nearly all energy demand. Non-energy consumption will still include fossil fuels. Global electricity generation from renewable energy sources will reach 88% by 2040 and 100% by 2050 in the alternative scenarios. "New" renewables—mainly wind, solar and geothermal energy—will contribute 83% of the total electricity generated. The average annual investment required between 2015 and 2050, including costs for additional power plants to produce hydrogen and synthetic fuels and for plant replacement, will be around $1.4 trillion. Shifts from domestic aviation to rail and from road to rail are needed. Passenger car use must decrease in the
OECD countries (but increase in developing world regions) after 2020. The passenger car use decline will be partly compensated by strong increase in public transport rail and bus systems. CO2 emission can reduce from 32 Gt in 2015 to 7 Gt (+2.0 Scenario) or 2.7 Gt (+1.5 Scenario) in 2040, and to zero in 2050. == See also ==