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Younger Dryas impact hypothesis

The Younger Dryas impact hypothesis (YDIH) is a widely refuted fringe hypothesis for the cause of the sudden influx of freshwater into the ocean which disrupted the thermohaline circulation and resulted in the onset of the Younger Dryas cool period (stadial) at the end of the Last Glacial Period, around 12,900 years ago. It has been debunked for lack of evidence for any such impact by many scientific studies by relevant experts across geology, astronomy, and other related disciplines for decades as self-contradictory, inconsistent, ommitting contradictory information, and "sometimes defying the laws of physics." The academic conversation around YDIH is considered unusual due to the insistence of its primary proponents that rejection is a vocal minority and claims of a conspiratorial cover-up by mainstream science.

History
The first proposal that a comet struck North America at the end of the last ice age was introduced in the 19th century by the populist politician and conspiracist Ignatius Donnelly as an alternative hypothesis to glaciation. In his 1883 book Ragnarok, he posited that such an impact explained clay and gravel deposits spread across North America as a result of the cometic collision and that it had wiped out the fictional lost civilization of Atlantis. YDIH is a fringe hypothesis purported to explain the cause of the sudden cooling at the end of the Last Glacial Period, the Younger Dryas (YD) period. It was formally introduced in 2007 by nuclear physicist Richard Firestone and collaborators in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Firestone and collaborators elaborated on the hypothesis substantially in their 2006 book The Cycle of Cosmic Catastrophes, though one of its co-authors denies the book was meant to be scientific. However, genetic evidence indicates that the Clovis people migrated southward and adapted to the changes in their environment. Anthropologist Vance T. Holliday has also argued that evidence shows that there is no requisite break in the archeological record, but instead that the Clovis people did not stay in one site for very long and that Folsom points appear in the record simultaneously with the disappearance of megafauna hunting tools. The widely accepted cause of the freshwater influx is meltwater from retreating ice sheets In 2011, Pinter and collaborators set out to review and test YDIH and to present the results of such tests. They concluded that the hypothesis was rejected on the basis that the results of the 2007 study could not be reproduced and were instead a misinterpretation of data, This remained the "last hope" for the hypothesis, despite the lack of an impact crater, until a study led by physicist Tyrone Daulton concluded no such nanodiamonds could be found. Another study by geophysicist Jay Melosh showed that an air burst from such an impact could not produce the amount of pressure necessary to form nanodiamonds. Instead, a 2010 study led by paleobotanist Andrew C. Scott found fossil evidence that the materials found were fungi or insect fecal pellets. Additional studies in 2016 replicated the refutation of the existence of the nanodiamond evidence. and the 2015 discovery of the Hiawatha impact structure. However, in 2018 Melosh argued that it was statistically unlikely the impact was recent given that an object the size of the projectile would only collide with Earth once every few million years. He also said that it was too small to cause a catastrophic extinction event in the continental United States. A 2025 study led by volcanologist Charlotte E. Green found that the elevated platinum occurred 45 years after the onset of YD, and thus too late to support YDIH, and lasted for 14 years, which negated an instantaneous cataclysmic event. Green and her co-authors concluded instead that the platinum spike was due to sustained fissure eruptions in Iceland, which was consistent with several other previous studies. Other evidence cited in support of YDIH includes black mats, or strata of organic-rich soil (which contained the purported nanodiamonds), Both Marlon and Pigati argued that various natural processes unrelated to an impact could explain their presence. Likewise, Pinter and collaborators later found that the magnetic spherules were instead consistent with iron-rich detrital grains of anthropogenic or otherwise terrestrial origin. Afterward, several co-authors of the paper distanced themselves from YDIH. Philanthropist and early Googler Eugene Jhong donated $1.25 million across two universities to fund CRG's work. The group publishes research about real geological phenomenons with alternative explanations that diverge from scientific consensus. Since its forming, CRG has grown in collaborators and, since 2021, published several papers it claimed confirmed the validity of YDIH, arguing it was no longer a hypothesis, but instead a scientific theory, including a 2021 paper authored by theoretical physicist Martin Sweatman, who rejected all rebuttals of his work as "poorly constructed." Tell el-Hammam and data manipulation In September 2021, CRG collaborators published a hypothesis about an ancient city destroyed by an air burst from a meteorite at the archaeological site Tell el-Hammam 3,600 years ago. The study was led by a biblical archaeologist purported to be the site of the ruins of Sodom, a Biblical city destroyed in the Book of Genesis by God for wickedness. CRG members initially denied tampering with the photos but eventually published a correction in which they admitted to inappropriate image manipulation. Five of the paper's 53 images received retouching to remove labels and arrows present in other published versions of the photos, which Bik believed to be a possible conflict with Scientific Reports' image submission guidelines but was not in itself a disproval of the Tall el-Hammam air burst hypothesis. On February 15, 2023, the following editor's note was posted on this paper: "Readers are alerted that concerns raised about the data presented and the conclusions of this article are being considered by the Editors. A further editorial response will follow the resolution of these issues." On April 24, 2025, Scientific Reports issued a Retraction Note, citing concerns about methodology, analysis, and data interpretation. Another unrelated paper authored by a CRG member and leading YDIH advocate was retracted by Scientific Reports in 2023. The journal's Retraction Note cited a publication "indicating that the study does not provide data to support the claims of an airburst event or that such an event led to the decline of the Hopewell culture." == Public interest ==
Public interest
YDIH was popularized by its inclusion in documentaries, including media on the National Geographic Channel, History Channel, and the PBS program NOVA. In 2024, The New York Times (NYT) called YDIH "The Comet Strike Theory That Just Won't Die" in a feature describing the history and the public's peculiar fascination with it. The tendency for lay people to accept YDIH in the face of scientific consensus against it stems from "epistemic vigilance," a cognitive process that works to distinguish fact from fiction. Psychologists have found that when confronted by conflicting information from perceived experts, people tend to choose the side that most closely aligns with their existing beliefs or their political or cultural identity. Psychologist Spencer Mermelstein said that people likely choose YDIH because it offers a simple explanation that aligns with their knowledge of Earth's geologic past with "one big cause, one big outcome." These claims were criticized as inaccurate by independent reviewers, including Jason Colavito, Michael Shermer, and Marc J. Defant. Hancock expanded on his claims in a subsequent book, ''America Before: The Key to Earth's Lost Civilization'' (2019), in which he claimed that the Younger Dryas catastrophe had wiped out all traces of a sophisticated Ice Age civilization in North America. The Society for American Archaeology (SAA) said in open letter that Hancock's ideas about such a civilization echoed and promoted "dangerous racist thinking." The SAA's letter was an open call to Netflix to reclassify Hancock's 2022 docuseries as science fiction. The series, titled Ancient Apocalypse, primarily focused on Hancock's belief in such a lost civilization (including the fictional Atlantis). Episode 8 specifically covered YDIH. Impact physicist Mark Boslough published a commentary in the magazine Skeptic with the conclusion that many attributes of the series are pseudoscience. Articles in The Guardian, Slate, The Nation, and other left-leaning publications rebutted and ridiculed the Netflix series, while conservative outlets gave it glowing reviews and referred to criticism as left-wing propaganda. Political activist Tucker Carlson wrote that the SAA was an "elitist, closed-minded cabal" linked to the "collapse of the American idea." The YouTube community has further increased visibility of YDIH into popular discussion with many dozens of videos discussing the topic. Within the community, similar identity divisions appear around the rejection or acceptance of YDIH to the mainstream media. YouTubers who subscribe to YDIH cast its skeptics as villains part of a "scientific cabal" or victims of groupthink. YDIH continues to gain momentum in spite of scientific consensus to the contrary due to its grip on the public imagination and its relation to personal and group identity, rather than scientific inquiry. In particular, YDIH appeals to people who are susceptible to conspiracy theories that reject scientific expertise. == References ==
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