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Operation Yellowhammer

Operation Yellowhammer was the codename used by the British HM Treasury for cross-government civil contingency planning for the possibility of Brexit without a withdrawal agreement – a no-deal Brexit. Had the UK and EU failed to conclude such an agreement, the UK's unilateral departure from the EU could have disrupted, for an unknown duration, many aspects of the relationship between the UK and European Union, including financial transfers, movement of people, trade, customs and other regulations. Operation Yellowhammer was intended to mitigate, within the UK, some of the effects of this disruption, and was expected to run for approximately three months. It was developed by the Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS), a department of the Cabinet Office responsible for emergency planning.

Disclosure and naming
The existence of the operation leaked on 6 September 2018, when a press photographer captured a snapshot of a document revealing some "no-deal" plans and the HM Treasury codename for them. The document appeared to indicate the CCS had been used in anticipation of government policy. No further details were revealed. The National Audit Office (NAO) subsequently made some documents public relating to the operation. but it has been suggested that the code name is an allusion to the call of the Yellowhammer traditionally being described as "a little bit of bread, and no cheese", a description which might also apply to food rationing. On 2 February 2019, The Times received leaked documents with this code name, about Department for Transport command and control structure plans. ==Activation plan==
Activation plan
Operation Yellowhammer covers actions to be taken in a no-deal scenario, Consequently, full activation of Operation Yellowhammer was postponed until 8 April 2019. On 10 April 2019 the European Council granted the UK a six-month extension; Yellowhammer's 6,000-strong civil service team was disbanded a few weeks afterwards, with most members returning to their usual activities. Developments since then with Theresa May resigning as leader of the Conservative Party and both candidates to replace her talking of leaving without a deal by 31 October deadline may make it necessary to resume preparations. According to the Financial Times and others, this is a sign that we have already run out of time. On Monday 21 October 2019, The Cabinet Office announced it had held an emergency Operation Yellowhammer Cabinet meeting on Sunday 20th 2019, "triggering" the plan, because it said there was no guarantee the EU would grant an extension. This followed the Prime Minister's compliance (on 19 October) with his obligation under the Benn Act to request an extension to Article 50 from the EU. Tom Brake, the Liberal Democrat's Brexit spokesman said of the need for an extension, "if it is required, will be granted, leaving Yellowhammer nothing more than an expensive taxpayer-funded PR stunt." The EU granted the requested extension a week later, on 28 October. EU preparedness The European Commission issued a press release on 25 March 2019 indicating it had completed preparations for (what was then) an increasingly likely "no-deal" scenario on 12 April 2019. ==Possible activation in 2021==
Possible activation in 2021
The transition period will end on 1 January 2021, the deadline for further extension having expired at the end of June 2020. There is no legal provision of a further extension; that would require new legislation in the UK and each member state. , there has been "little progress" towards a deal in principle, let alone a detailed text. Time required for ratification leaves late October as the latest possible date. At the end of the August 2020 round of negotiations, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier, noting how little time remained, said that it "seems unlikely" that an agreement can be reached. ==Organisation==
Organisation
Operation Yellowhammer was developed by the Civil Contingencies Secretariat, though COBR took control on 25 March 2019. and chaired by the prime minister. It will have wide-ranging powers to order emergency measures, including use of the military, and overriding regulations. Relationships The CCS may work with the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) to achieve an objective for Brexit work, with the DExEU concentrating on new policies, legislative changes and required funding changes with the CCS dealing with steps to mitigate and manage short-term disruption. An example objective would be Continuity of supply of medicines into the UK after no deal exit from the EU falling within the areas of risk of key goods crossing borders and transport systems. Arrangements for prioritisation of key goods, additional ferry capacity and having procedures in place for operation customs operations that are effective immediately from the Brexit date are some of the areas covered. ==Areas of risk==
Areas of risk
Operation Yellowhammer identifies 12 areas of risk. These include the food and medicine supply chains and the status of British citizens residing in the EU. There are also three risks common to all areas. The twelve areas of risk identified are: transport systems, people crossing borders, key goods crossing borders, healthcare services, British energy and other critical systems, British food and water supplies, British nationals in the EU, law enforcement implications, banking and finance industry services, Brexit and the Irish border, specific risks to overseas territories and Crown dependencies (including the effect of Brexit on Gibraltar) and national security. Risks common to all areas identified are: legal, communications and data. ==Costs and resources==
Costs and resources
In March 2019 the CCS had 56 people working internally on the programme; it is estimated 140 would be needed to maintain the operations centre and it has been budgeted to cost £1.1 million in 2018–2019. This is in the context of the British Treasury allocating £1.5 billion for Brexit preparations by government departments in 2018–2019. 3,500 troops were placed on standby to 'assist the civil power' in the event of issues arising from a no-deal exit, although the Ministry of Defence had only disclosed their mission will be to "support government planning". ==Criticism==
Criticism
On 21 March 2019, the British government's decision to risk a no-deal Brexit and to invoke Operation Yellowhammer was criticised by the First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon. Her sentiments were echoed by the First Minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford. On 22 March confidential Cabinet documents on Operation Yellowhammer were obtained by The Guardian newspaper. The document warned that ministers could need to work 22.5-hour days, and departments would have to work 24 hours a day for at least twelve weeks without input from higher up in government. A source with knowledge of the operation said that, although planning had stepped up, the overall picture remained chaotic and "rudderless". ==August 2019 leak==
August 2019 leak
In mid-August 2019 an official cabinet Yellowhammer document from earlier that month was leaked. The paper gave base-case planning assumptions in the event of a no-deal Brexit which could lead to food, medicine and petrol shortages, with a hard border in the island of Ireland, and a "three-month meltdown" at ports unable to cope with extra checks. There could be protests requiring police action, and thousands of jobs could be lost as two oil refineries closed. Government ministers disputed the report and dismissed its warnings as "worst-case". ==September 2019 publication==
September 2019 publication
A humble address was passed by the House of Commons on 9 September 2019 requiring the government "to lay before this House no later than 11.00pm Wednesday 11 September all the documents prepared within Her Majesty's Government since 23 July 2019 relating to operation Yellowhammer and submitted to the Cabinet or a Cabinet Committee". In compliance, on 11 September the Government released a five-page document entitled "Operation Yellowhammer: HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions as of 2 August 2019". Other than a change of title – from "Base Scenario" to "Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions" – and one redacted paragraph reportedly dealing with the impact on the oil refining industry, the document was essentially identical to the one leaked in August. The document was the subject of a two-hour long "Brexit readiness and Operation Yellowhammer" Ministerial statement and debate led by Michael Gove on 25 September, the day Parliament resumed session after the Supreme Court failed the prorogation attempted by Boris Johnson. During the debate the opposition focused on the modification of the title, from "Base case" to "Worst case". The petrol tariff was revealed by opposition members to be zero, and there was some concern expressed by Adrian Bailey and Melanie Onn about job losses at uncompetitive British plant. ==Other plans==
Other plans
According to The Sunday Times Operation Yellowhammer was one of three scenarios being studied, the other two were Operation Kingfisher, involving a support package for distressed British businesses, and Operation Black Swan, a disaster scenario. Michael Gove characterised the report as inaccurate. Operation Kingfisher Operation Kingfisher was part of the UK Government's contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit. The programme was intended to help companies over the transition period. A report published by the Times of London on 10 August detailed the programme to help large employers, particularly in the construction and manufacturing sectors, because of their long supply chains. Fewer than 1,000 businesses were on the watchlist. The plan, which was conceived under Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond as a means to inject cash from the public purse directly into businesses, continued to be maintained under the Johnson government's Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Michael Gove. Michael Gove was on record as denying the existence such a plan, which appeared to have been leaked to The Times newspaper by a former cabinet minister who was unhappy at being dismissed in the 2019 British cabinet formation. ==See also==
Notes and references
Notes References ==External links==
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