Sudanese transition to democracy (2019–2021)

Previous democratic experiences Sudan's 1948 election took place while Sudan was still under Anglo–Egyptian rule, with the question of union or separation from Egypt being a major electoral issue. After independence in 1956, the following half century included a mix of national elections, constitutions, coalition governments, coups d'état, involvement in the Chadian Civil War (2005–2010), Islamisation under the influence of Hassan al-Turabi (1989–1999) and the secession of South Sudan (2011). Al-Bashir rule Omar al-Bashir's rule started with the 1989 Sudanese coup d'état and ended with the April 2019 Sudanese coup d'état during the Sudanese Revolution (December 2018 – September 2019). ==2019–2020==

July 2019 agreements 5 July verbal deal On 5 July, with the help of African Union mediator Mohamed El Hacen Lebatt Many of the reforms affect the Sudanese Criminal Code of 1991 (also known as the Criminal Act or Penal Code). Some attempts had been made under al-Bashir's rule to reform legislation on issues such as extramarital rape victim blaming via 'adultery', and impunity for marital rape, by amending the definition of rape in Article 149.1 of the Criminal Code in February 2015. However, several commentators such as the African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies argued that this amendment had a number of flaws. Even though the amendment made it possible to prosecute marital rape by removing the reference to adultery, there is still no specific prohibition of marital rape, and oral rape is not criminalised. Moreover, Article 149.2 still defined adultery and sodomy as forms of 'rape', so complainants still risked being prosecuted for adultery or sodomy if they failed to prove they were subjected to sexual acts without their consent. Finally, the importance of consent was diminished in favour of coercion, going against the trend in international law to define sexual violence by lack of consent. Constitutional principles of legal reform (August 2019) The Draft Constitutional Charter (also known as the Draft Constitutional Declaration) that was agreed in August 2019 further detailed how this reform was to take place during a 39-month transitional period, and in which areas of law these were to be focused. Article 2 of the Charter specifies that:The Transitional Constitution of Sudan of 2005 and the constitutions of provinces is [sic] repealed, while the laws issued thereunder remain in force, unless they are repealed or amended. The decrees issued from 11 April 2019 until the date of signature of this Constitutional Charter remain in force, unless they are repealed or amended by the Transitional Military Council. If they contradict any provisions of this Constitutional Charter, the provisions of the present Declaration prevail.Articles 3 and 5 outline what kind of state and society Sudan is, or should become: a parliamentary democracy with equal citizenship for all, that is "founded on justice, equality, and diversity and guarantees human rights and fundamental freedoms," where the rule of law prevails and "violations of human rights and international and humanitarian law" and other transgressions are punished, including those committed by the 1989–2019 regime (a point reiterated in Article 7.3). Article 4 establishes the principle of popular sovereignty, and that provisions of existing laws "that contradict the provisions of this Constitutional Charter shall be repealed or amended to the extent necessary to remove the contradiction". According to Ihsan Fagiri, leader of the No to Oppression Against Women Initiative, around 45,000 women were prosecuted under the Public Order Act in 2016 alone. It was seen as an important first step towards gradual legal reform to improve the status of women's rights in the country as envisioned by the Charter. On the same day, the Dismantling of the Salvation Regime Act was adopted, which disbanded the former ruling National Congress Party of Omar al-Bashir, set up a committee to confiscate the vast assets of the party (many of which were allegedly illegitimately obtained from the population through 'looting', 'stealing' and corruption), and banned "the symbols of the regime or party" from "engaging in any political activity for a period of 10 years". Miscellaneous Amendments Act (April–July 2020) On 22 April 2020, the Transitional Legislative Council passed a series of bills that would amend other parts of the Criminal Code of 1991. Amongst other things, female genital mutilation (FGM) was criminalised and made punishable by a fine and 3 years imprisonment. The resulting legal changes were bundled as the 'Miscellaneous Amendments Act' (also called 'Fundamental Rights and Freedoms Act' by some media) and sent to the Sovereignty Council for approval, which took several months to review them. According to Justice Minister Nasreldin Abdelbari, some details were added to the Act by the Ministry of Justice following comments made by the Sovereignty Council "in a manner that does not undermine the law". The Miscellaneous Amendments Act was finally signed by Sovereignty Council Chairman Abdel Fattah al-Burhan The Miscellaneous Amendments Act (or 'Fundamental Rights and Freedoms Act' Reportedly, apostasy was still illegal, although the punishment for it was not clear, while prosecutors were ordered to protect those accused of apostasy. Moreover, a bill reforming the legal and justice system and the Anti-Cyber Crime Act were signed into law on the same day as well. Reactions and demands from activists Women's rights activists such as 500 Words Magazine editor Ola Diab and Redress legal advisor Charlie Loudon hailed the abolition of repressive measures and restrictions on women as "great first steps". They emphasised that the new laws needed to be enforced and the repealed laws also abandoned in practice, which would require revision of the internal policies of government agencies such as the police, the military and intelligence services. Several other laws that activists demanded to be removed included the prosecution of rape victims for 'adultery' (Article 149.2), and of women in mixed-sex settings for 'prostitution' (Article 154), Human Rights Watch (HRW) praised the transitional government on various steps it had taken for legal reform, including the repealing of the public order law and the apostasy law, the criminalisation of FGM, and the approval of draft laws establishing commissions to work on human rights and transitional justice reforms, but urged it to accelerate its pace of legal and institutional reform and to better consult with civil society groups on new laws before passing them. == TMC–FFC Political Agreement and Constitutional Declaration ==

The TMC and FFC signed the written form of the Political Agreement on 17 July 2019 Under the terms of the agreement, the factions that signed will be entitled to five ministers in the transitional cabinet and a quarter of seats in the transitional legislature. At a regional level, signatories will be entitled to 40% of the seats on transitional legislatures of their home states. A final agreement was reached in early September. This agreement stated that 'Sudan is a multi-racial, multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multi-cultural society. Full recognition and accommodation of these diversities must be affirmed. (...) The state shall not establish an official religion. No citizen shall be discriminated against based on their religion.' ==Protests during 2019–2021==

Protests continued during the creation of the transitionary period institutions, on issues that included the nomination of a new Chief Justice of Sudan and Attorney-General, killings of civilians by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the toxic effects of cyanide and mercury from gold mining in Northern state and South Kordofan, protests against a state governor in el-Gadarif and against show trials of Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA) coordinators, and for officials of the previous government to be dismissed in Red Sea and White Nile. ==Foreign influence on the transition==

A group of four states, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom and the United States, named the QUAD for Sudan was formed in 2021 to facilitate mediation and talks along with the United Nations and the African Union. Saudi Arabia and the UAE wish to limit Islamist influence and the UK and the U.S. wish to limit Russian influence in the country. The Quad claimed to have supported a transition to a democratic civilian-led government. The Trump administration tried to convince the transitional government to normalise Israel–Sudan relations by concluding a formal peace deal. It also offered to remove Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism in return for 335 million US dollars in compensation to families of victims of the 1998 United States embassy bombings by al-Qaida, which the US government alleged the previous Sudanese regime played a role in. For the Sudanese transitional government, it was important to receive financial aid and open up trade opportunities in the midst of several ongoing crises, including decades of economic mismanagement under Bashir's regime, an unfinished internal peace process, recent political upheaval and the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving millions of Sudanese in hardship as food and fuel prices had soared. Therefore, in mid-October 2020, it agreed to pay the compensation and distanced itself from the pro-terrorist activities of the Bashir regime in order to lift the anti-terrorist sanctions imposed in 1993 and obtain access to foreign loans and recover the economy. Separately, Sudan had already been conducting negotiations for peace with Israel, and by mid-October had agreed to allow flights to Israel to overfly its territory. On the 100th day of the war in Sudan, clashes continue between the army and Rapid Support Forces, resulting in over 3 million people displaced and 1,136 deaths.The main civilian coalition, Forces of Freedom and Change, seeks resolution through a meeting in Egypt on 23 July 2023. For Munzoul Assal, professor of social anthropology, the international community's power-sharing approach partly led to the failure of the democratic transition. The African Union and the IGAD wanted to push for a power-share between military and civilians. He argues that the military had the upper-hand in the negotiations and that the international community made financial promises that were not kept. The US mostly engaged with the two military leaders that would provoke the 2023 conflict. "Dealing with the military and withholding significant and necessary financial support from the civilian government characterized the approach of the international community throughout the period that followed the downfall of Bashir", he writes, arguing that tougher measures should have been taken against military that staged the coup. == 2021 coup and aftermath ==

On 25 October 2021, the Sudanese military, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, took control of the government in a military coup. At least five senior government figures were initially detained. Civilian Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok refused to declare support for the coup and on 25 October called for popular resistance; he was moved to house arrest on 26 October. Civilian groups including the Sudanese Professionals Association and Forces of Freedom and Change called for civil disobedience and refusal to cooperate with the coup organisers. On 21 November 2021, al-Burhan freed prime minister Abdalla Hamdok from house arrest and the two signed a deal that re-instated Hamdok as prime minister and promised to release political prisoners. Hamdok resigned on 2 January 2022 amid continuing protests. The African Union suspended Sudan's membership, and the U.S. and European Union froze development assistance for Sudan's transition. International Monetary Fund and World Bank aid halted, and Sudan's economy continued to decline. By April 2022, it was unclear whether the Sudanese transition to democracy would continue, as the military government was strengthening its ties with Russia, including after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine started on 24 February 2022. While in the six months following the coup, Sudanese civilians had been taking to the streets on a daily basis, calling for a civil government and chanting "Military, go back to the barracks", negotiations between the military leadership and the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission Sudan (UNITAMS) led by Volker Perthes had become strained. December 2022 framework agreement On 5 December 2022, representatives of 40 civilian groups, including an representative, and military leaders al-Burhan and Hemedti, signed a new framework agreement for the transition to a civilian government. The agreement, most of which was previously included in the 2020 Juba deal, committed the military to appoint a civilian government, including a civilian prime minister. Following the appointment of the transitional government, a new two-year transition would then begin, concluding with elections. The deal set no date for a final agreement and left some of the controversial issues for future negotiations, leading to protests by the Sudanese resistance committees. Analysis In March 2023, diplomat Rosalind Marsden described the December 2022 framework agreement as "a major step to reversing the damage" of the October 2021 coup. Marsden described the role of the Sudanese resistance committees as having been a key factor that convinced the military that their coup had failed. She stated that possible spoilers to the democratic transition were Popular Defence Forces linked to the National Islamic Front of the former al-Bashir government, recreated under new names. Marsden stated that supporters of the former al-Bashir government were using online social media to upset the Framework Agreement and to create division between the SAF and the RSF. ==See also==