The documents—primarily in the form of pictures of charts and graphs—concern intelligence that the United States holds on other nations, including North Korea, China, and Iran, and the
Russian invasion of Ukraine. Senior U.S. officials have attested to their legitimacy, believing that the documents are intelligence and operational briefs from the
Joint Staff within the
Pentagon. The documents appear to be compiled from multiple sources, including the
National Security Agency (NSA), the
Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) of the
State Department, and the
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA); in the lattermost case, one section of the documents originates from a daily intelligence update. In releasing the documents, the documents were first photographed and then uploaded online. According to Javed Ali, a former U.S. counter-terrorism official, the uploader of the documents may have taken steps to conceal their
IP address and timestamps from the photographs in an effort to feign anonymity. The classified material would have been limited to a
sensitive compartmented information facility (SCIF), where electronic devices connected to the Internet are prohibited. A senior U.S. official stated that hundreds—potentially thousands—of government officials may have obtained the documents.
Russo-Ukrainian War Battle of Bakhmut One document dated late February 2023 detailed Russian
flanking maneuvers near Bakhmut, discussions by the Ukrainian military about how to respond, and supply shortages in the area. An intelligence assessment states that as of February 25, Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut were nearly
encircled; a senior Ukrainian official noted that morale was low among Ukrainian soldiers.
Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's director of
military intelligence, described the Ukrainian position as "catastrophic", and offered to deploy elite units, including the
Kraken Regiment, to safeguard the single
supply line and prevent encirclement. Deployment of reinforcements, including elite units, ultimately prevented the encirclement, but at a strategic cost, depleting seasoned forces that may have been in reserve for the spring counter-offensive. purported Pentagon estimates on Russian and Ukrainian casualties, Several documents also offer "low confidence" estimates for the number of casualties, with the U.S. estimating 189,500 to 223,000 Russian casualties, compared to 124,500 to 131,000 Ukrainian casualties. The documents also allege that the
Spetsnaz GRU has suffered significant casualties as a result of the unit's use in the war.
Russian military planning -provided tanks, such as the
M1 Abrams (pictured) In one top secret document, plans by the
Russian General Staff to counter
NATO-provided tanks were detailed. One such plan involves paying Russian soldiers who destroy NATO tanks. The documents also show U.S. awareness of Russian military planning, such as plans to destroy a hangar containing drones near
Odesa. Two U.S. defense officials later stated that the pilot of the Russian fighter jet misunderstood commands from a radar operator.
Weapons use by Ukraine The documents suggest that Ukraine's air defense against aircraft—largely made up of the
S-300 and
Buk missile systems—will be depleted by May. Several documents refer to Ukraine using weapons within Russia. According to one document, in late February, Ukrainian president
Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested the use of
unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to strike within the
Rostov Oblast. Another document states that China could increase aid to Russia if Ukraine struck within Russia. Documents also outline a proposed "Combat Power Build" consisting of 9 planned
brigades supplied by the United States and allied partners.
Western special forces The documents included the list of countries which have small contingents of military special forces operating inside Ukraine; the United Kingdom sent the largest number of soldiers at 50, followed by Latvia (17), France (15), the United States (14) and the Netherlands (one). The United States special forces were detailed to the U.S. embassy in Kyiv to provide security for VIPs and to assist with oversight of U.S. equipment and supplies being sent to Ukraine. The intelligence findings suggest that Wagner chief's
Yevgeny Prigozhin's claims that the Russian Defense Ministry has been skimping on ammunition supplies to Wagner may have been grounded in fact. A document prepared by the US
Joint Chiefs of Staff,
Cyber Command, and
European Command analysed Russian online disinformation and propaganda operations of Fabrika – a Russian disinformation network under direct purview of the Russian presidential administration – as of late 2022, finding that their operations are becoming more effective, with 99% of their fake social media accounts evading detection by platforms (though experts have questioned the significance of this finding after the document was made public, noting that the impact of fake accounts may nonetheless be negligible if not picked up by other users). Fabrika uses bots to manipulate search results and recommendations algorithms, as well as actively targeting individuals with propaganda directly with email and phone contact information collected from databases. Fabrika is attempting to demoralise Ukrainians and deepen rifts in Western countries.
China Analysis of risks posed by China are mentioned throughout the documents. Documents speak to inadequacies of Taiwan's air defenses, U.S. intelligence assesses China would probably establish
air superiority very rapidly in an attack on Taiwan. One document overviews a test of the
DF-27 (
Dongfeng) ballistic missile, which possess a "high probability" of penetrating U.S. ballistic missile defense systems. An assessment by U.S. intelligence community notes that China is likely developing cyber-attack capabilities to "deny, exploit and hijack" Western satellites. A section of the documents details a potential deployment of British naval aircraft carriers in the
Indo-Pacific and differing visions of Indo-Pacific (Counter-PRC) policies between the
Conservative and
Labour parties. Other information in the documents leak include Chinese investments in a
Nicaraguan deep-sea port, Chinese complaints regarding the exclusion of
Huawei in Jordanian 5G bidding, a satellite rocket launch in March, the commissioning of a new
Yushen-class landing helicopter dock, Chinese
Hikvision surveillance equipment in DoD supply chains and instructions for Chinese foreign affairs officials regarding the
high-altitude balloon incident. One
National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency document shows satellite imagery of two
WZ-8s that could provide China an advantage in a potential war against Taiwan.
Egypt (right) planned to sell rockets to Russia One document overviews conversation between
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the president of Egypt, and senior Egyptian military officials, over the production and shipment of some 40,000 rockets, and references plans by Egypt to sell artillery and gunpowder to Russia. Sisi attempted to keep the supply a secret to "avoid problems with 'the West'". Workers were told that the rockets were for the
Egyptian Army. The document references a person known only as Salah al-Din, believed to be Mohamed Salah al-Din, the minister of state for military production. Salah al-Din reportedly told Sisi that he would "order his people to work shift work if necessary" to repay Russia for unknown help. In addition, Sisi considered selling "ordinary stuff" to China to produce more
Sakr-45 rocket launchers. Egyptian officials rejected the allegation of rocket exports to Russia; separately, Russian officials also called it a hoax.
Hungary A note of a conversation between the President of Ukraine and Deputy Prime Minister
Yulia Svyrydenko in which
Volodymyr Zelensky suggested blowing up the
Druzhba pipeline to hit Hungarian industry, as
Orbán's government was too friendly towards the Kremlin during the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Serbia The documents state that Serbia supplied weapons to Ukraine for its defense against Russia, or had agreed to do so, despite Serbia refusing to sanction Russia economically.
South Korea The documents outline internal debates in South Korea regarding a request by the U.S. to provide Korean artillery shells to Ukraine, about whether it would violate South Korea's policy on lethal aid if the U.S. then sent them to Ukraine. These debates were obtained through
signals intelligence conducted by the CIA.
Israel The documents show how the U.S. sought to pressure Israel into providing lethal aid. Israel has previously denied Ukraine weaponry, including its
Iron Dome air defense system. Out of four options pressed by the U.S., Israel was most likely to engage in the "Turkish model", providing weaponry to Ukraine through third parties while remaining cordial with Russia. One set of documents states that the
Mossad—the national intelligence agency of Israel—encouraged staff and citizens to participate in
judicial reform protests that flared up in January, following
a series of changes supported by Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu. According to the documents, director
David Barnea supported junior employees participating in the protests under the guise of anonymity. The Israeli government issued a statement denying the claims, and Israeli political commentators noted that the document appears to confuse permission with encouragement, and the actions of current and former Mossad employees.
Taiwan Intelligence assessment documents question Taiwan's ability to withstand a potential
PRC invasion, noting that PRC would swiftly establish
air superiority in a potential conflict, and that it would likely to be far more effective in establishing air superiority in comparison to Russia's push for air superiority during its
2022 invasion of Ukraine. The assessments furthermore note that only half of Taiwan's aircraft would be combat ready, that the Taiwanese military leadership questions the effectiveness of its anti-missile air defences, and that Taiwan would be slow to move its airforce fleet to shelters, leaving it exposed to destruction by missile strikes. The documents further note that PRC use of civilian ships for military purposes is making it difficult for US intelligence to predict a potential PRC invasion of Taiwan. Leaked documents also say that the
President of Mali Assimi Goïta confirmed that Mali could acquire weapons from Turkey on Wagner's behalf.
Haiti The documents state that the Wagner Group is seeking to expand its operations into Haiti, offering to combat violent gangs on behalf of the Haitian government.
Organizations Gulf Cartel Following the
2023 Matamoros kidnappings, U.S. intelligence agencies began increasing their surveillance of the
Gulf Cartel.
U.S. espionage targets According to the leaked documents,
U.S. intelligence spied on
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres because it believed Guterres was too soft on Russia. The leaks also revealed other U.S. espionage activities – including against allies such as
Jordan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Turkey, Ivory Coast and Colombia. One document states that the U.S. has been spying on Zelenskyy.
Sources and methods In addition to the intelligence findings themselves, the leaked documents also reveal the sources and methods of intelligence gathering, for example revealing that the CIA is using
signals intelligence to spy on discussions inside the
Russian Defense Ministry, as well as to eavesdrop on the South Korean and Israeli governments, and individuals associated with the
Wagner Group. The leak further reveals which Russian agencies have been penetrated by U.S. intelligence. The leak imperils future intelligence gathering efforts as targets take countermeasures and patch up exposed vulnerabilities, and puts
human sources at risk. ==Ongoing investigations==