The cornerstone of Schlieffen's war planning was undoubtedly the strategic counter-offensive. Schlieffen was a great believer in the power of the attack in the context of the defensive operation. Germany's smaller forces relative to the Franco-Russian Entente meant that an offensive posture against one or both was basically suicidal. On the other hand, Schlieffen placed great faith in Germany's ability to use its railways to launch a counter-offensive against a hypothetical French or Russian invasion force, defeat it, then quickly re-group her troops and launch a counter-offensive against the other. To quote Holmes: Schlieffen also recognised the need for
offensive planning, however, as failing to do so would limit the German Army's capabilities if the situation called for them. In 1897, starting from a plan of 1894, Schlieffen developed a tactical plan that – acknowledging the German army's limited offensive power and capacity for strategic manoeuvres – basically amounted to using brute force to advance beyond the French defences on the Franco-German border. To complement this unsophisticated manoeuvre and improve its chances of success he deemed it necessary to outflank the fortress line to the north and focus on destroying it from north–south starting at
Verdun. This was a
tactical plan centred around the destruction of the fortress-line that called for very little movement by the forces involved. In 1905, however, Schlieffen developed what was truly his first plan for a
strategic offensive operation – the
Schlieffen plan Denkschrift (Schlieffen plan memorandum). This plan was based on the hypothesis of an isolated Franco-German war which
would not involve Russia and called for Germany to attack France. The rough draft of this plan was so crude as not to consider questions of supply at all and be vague on the actual number of troops involved, but theorised that Germany would need to raise at least another 100,000 professional troops and 100,000 "ersatz" militiamen (the latter being within Germany's capabilities even in 1905) in addition to being able to count on
Austro-Hungarian and
Italian forces being deployed to German
Alsace-Lorraine to defend it. The German Army would then move through the
Dutch province of
Limburg and northern Belgium, securing southern Belgium and Luxembourg with a flank-guard to protect both Germany and the main force from a French offensive during this critical manoeuvre [this being the point of the 1913 French Plan XVII]. Another factor considered for the plan was the size of armies of Germany herself and her enemies. Schlieffen calculated that Germany would have peacetime strength of 612,000, which is stronger than 593,000 of France. While the size of Russia's population and army was terrifying at first glance, Schlieffen did not see it as a great threat for his plans, considering the humiliating defeat of the Russian Army in the
Russo-Japanese War, and, in his eyes, their poor railway system. But it is here, in the second and final phase of the operation, that Schlieffen shows his true genius: he notes the immense strength of the French "second defensive area" in which the French can use the fortress-sector of Verdun, "Fortress Paris", and the River Marne as the basis of a
very strong defensive line. Appreciating its defensive power, Schlieffen knew that he would have to try to force the French back from the Marne or at least secure a
bridgehead over the
Marne and/or
Seine if he did not want the second German operation/campaign of the war to result in heavy losses. To do this, Schlieffen insisted that they cross the Seine
to the west of Paris and, if they managed to cross in strength against sufficiently weak opposition, then they might even be able to force the French back from the westernmost sections of the Marne and surround Paris. However, the bulk of Schlieffen's planning still followed his personal preferences for the counter-offensive.
Aufmarsch II and
Aufmarsch Ost (later
Aufmarsch II West and
Aufmarsch I Ost, respectively) continued to stress that Germany's best hope for survival if faced by a war with the Franco-Russian entente was a defensive strategy. This "defensive strategy", was reconciled with a very offensive
tactical posture as Schlieffen held that the
destruction of an attacking force required that it be surrounded and attacked from all sides until it surrendered, and not merely repulsed as in a "passive" defense: In August 1905 Schlieffen was kicked by a companion's horse, making him "incapable of battle". During his time off, now at the age of 72, he started planning his retirement. His successor was yet undetermined.
Goltz was the primary candidate, but the Emperor was not fond of him. A favourite of the Emperor was
Helmuth von Moltke the Younger, who became Chief of Staff after Schlieffen retired. Moltke went on to devise
Aufmarsch II Ost, a variant upon Schlieffen's
Aufmarsch Ost designed for an isolated Russo-German war. Schlieffen seems to have tried to impress upon Moltke that an offensive strategy against France could work only for isolated Franco-German war, as German forces would otherwise be too weak to implement it. Thus, Moltke still attempted to apply the offensive strategy of
Aufmarsch I West to the two-front war Germany faced in 1914 and Schlieffen's defensive plan
Aufmarsch II West. With too few troops to cross west of Paris, let alone attempt a crossing of the Seine, Moltke's campaign failed to breach the French "second defensive sector" and his troops were pushed back in the Battle of the Marne. == Influence ==