In 1744 Price published a volume of sermons. and he wrote on theological questions. He also wrote on
finance,
economics,
probability, and
life insurance.
Thomas Bayes Price was asked to become
literary executor of
Thomas Bayes, the mathematician. He edited Bayes's major work
An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances (1763), which appeared in
Philosophical Transactions, and contains
Bayes' theorem, one of the fundamental results of
probability theory. Price wrote an introduction to the paper, which provides some of the philosophical basis of
Bayesian statistics. In 1765, he was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society in recognition of his work on the legacy of Bayes.
Demographer From about 1766 Price worked with the
Society for Equitable Assurances. In particular, Price took an interest in the figures of Franklin and
Ezra Stiles on the colonial population in America, thought in some places to be doubling every 22 years. A debate on the British population had begun in the 1750s (with
William Brakenridge, Richard Forster,
Robert Wallace who pointed to manufacturing and
smallpox as factors reducing population, and
William Bell), but was inconclusive in the face of a lack of sound figures. The issue was of interest to European writers generally. The quantitative form of Price's theory on the contrasting
depopulation in England and Wales amounted to an approximate drop in population of 25 per cent since 1688. It was disputed numerically by
Arthur Young in his
Political Arithmetic (1774), which took in also criticism of the
physiocrats. In May 1770 Price presented to the Royal Society a paper on the proper method of calculating the values of contingent reversions. His book
Observations on Reversionary Payments (1771) became a classic, in use for about a century, and providing the basis for financial calculations of insurance and benefit societies, of which many had recently been formed. It, too, overestimated mortality. In consequence, it was good for the insurance business, and adverse for those purchasing annuities. Price's nephew
William Morgan was an
actuary, and became manager of the Equitable in 1775. Investigation of actual causes of ill-health began at this period, in a group of radical physicians around Priestley, including Price but centred on the Midlands and north-west: with
John Aikin,
Matthew Dobson,
John Haygarth and
Thomas Percival. Of these Haygarth and Percival supplied Price with figures, to supplement those he had collected himself in Northampton parishes.
Public finance In 1771 Price published his
Appeal to the Public on the Subject of the National Debt (ed. 1772 and 1774). This pamphlet excited considerable controversy, and is supposed to have influenced
William Pitt the Younger in re-establishing the
sinking fund for the extinction of the
national debt, created by
Robert Walpole in 1716 and abolished in 1733. The means proposed for the extinction of the debt are described by
Lord Overstone as "a sort of hocus-pocus machinery," supposed to work "without loss to any one," and consequently unsound. When Brand returned to finance and fiscal matters,
Alteration of the Constitution of the House of Commons and the Inequality of the Land Tax (1793), he used work of Price, among others.
Moral philosophy The
Review of the Principal Questions in Morals (1758, 3rd ed. revised 1787) contains Price's theory of
ethics. The work is supposedly a refutation of
Francis Hutcheson. The book is divided into ten chapters, the first of which gives his main ethical theory, allied to that of
Ralph Cudworth. Other chapters show his relation to
Joseph Butler and
Immanuel Kant. As a moralist Price is now regarded as a precursor to the
rational intuitionism of the 20th century. He drew, among other sources, on
Cicero and
Panaetius, and has been labelled a "British Platonist".
J. G. A. Pocock comments that Price was a moralist first, putting morality well ahead of democratic attachments. Price was widely criticised for that and for an absence of interest in
civil society. As well as Burke,
John Adams,
Adam Ferguson and
Josiah Tucker wrote against him.
James Mackintosh wrote that Price was attempting to revive
moral obligation.
Théodore Simon Jouffroy preferred Price to Cudworth, Reid and
Dugald Stewart. See also
William Whewell's
History of Moral Philosophy in England;
Alexander Bain's
Mental and Moral Sciences; and
Thomas Fowler's monograph on Shaftesbury and Hutcheson. A complete list of his works was given as an appendix to Priestley's
Funeral Sermon. ==Commemoration==