On 20 July 2011, the UN declared a famine in the
Lower Shabelle and
Bakool, two regions of southern Somalia. including increases of up to 240% in southern Somalia, 117% in south-eastern Ethiopia, and 58% in northern Kenya. On 5 Sep, the UN added the entire
Bay region in Somalia to the list of famine-stricken areas. The UN has conducted several airlifts of supplies in addition to on-the-ground assistance, As of September 2011, 63 percent of the UN's appeal for $2.5 billion (US) in humanitarian assistance has been financed. The crisis was expected to worsen in the following months, peaking in August and September, with large-scale assistance needed until at least December 2011. Torrential rains also exacerbated the situation in
Mogadishu by destroying makeshift homes. Tens of thousands of southern Somalia's internally displaced people were consequently left out in the cold. women in the Turkana District, one of
Kenya's most drought-affected regions. In addition, the Kenyan
Red Cross warns of a looming humanitarian crisis in the northwestern
Turkana region of Kenya, which borders
South Sudan. According to officials with the
aid agency, over three-fourths of the area's population is now in dire need of food supplies. Malnutrition levels are also at their highest. As a consequence, schools in the region have shut down "because there is no food for the children". About 385,000 children in these neglected parts of Kenya are already malnourished, along with 90,000 pregnant and breast feeding women. A further 3.5 million people in Kenya are estimated to be at risk of malnutrition. In August 2012, an estimated 87,000 people in the
Taita-Taveta District of Kenya were reportedly affected by famine, a situation attributed to a combination of wildlife invasions and drought. Large herds of elephants and monkeys overran farms in the district's lowland and highland areas, respectively, ruining thousands of acres of crops. Local residents, about 67,000 of whom were receiving food aid, also accused the
Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) of intentionally moving the monkeys to the district. However, this was denied by the KWS. Although fighting disrupted aid delivery in some areas, a scaling up of relief operations in mid-November had unexpectedly significantly reduced
malnutrition and mortality rates in southern Somalia, prompting the UN to downgrade the humanitarian situation in the Bay, Bakool and Lower Shabele regions from famine to emergency levels. Humanitarian access to rebel-controlled areas had also improved and rainfall had surpassed expectations, improving the prospects of a good harvest in early 2012. and that general humanitarian needs requiring international assistance would persist until at least September 2012. According to the Sudan Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CSFAM) for January 2012, due to subpar cereal production and increased cereal prices caused by intense conflict that has limited trade, humanitarian and population movements, an estimated 4.2 million people in
Sudan are predicted to be in the Stressed (IPC Phase 3), Crisis and Emergency levels during the first three or four months of 2012. The number was previously estimated at 3.3 million people in December 2011, and is expected to especially affect the
South Kordofan,
North Darfur and
Blue Nile states. Below average cereal production and a trade blockade imposed by Sudan have also extended food insecurity in
South Sudan, with the northern and northeastern sections of the nation expected to be at Stressed and Crisis levels through March. At the height of the
crisis in June 2011, the
UNHCR base in
Dadaab, Kenya hosted at least 440,000 people in three refugee camps, though the maximum capacity was 90,000. More than 1,500 refugees continued to arrive every day from southern Somalia, 80 per cent of whom were women and children. Within the camps,
infant mortality had risen threefold in the few months leading up to July 2011. The overall
mortality rate was 7.4 out of 10,000 per day, which was more than seven times as high as the "emergency" rate of 1 out of 10,000 per day. There was an upsurge in sexual violence against women and girls, with the number of cases reported increasing by over 4 times. Incidents of sexual violence occurred primarily during travel to the refugee camps, with some cases reported in the camps themselves or as new refugees went in search for firewood. This put them at high risk of acquiring
HIV/AIDS. In July 2011,
Dolo Odo, Ethiopia also hosted at least 110,000
refugees from Somalia, most of whom had arrived recently. The three camps at Bokolomanyo, Melkadida, and Kobe all exceeded their maximum capacity; one more camp was reportedly being built while another was planned in the future. Water shortage reportedly affected all the facilities.
Health and disease In July 2011,
measles cases broke out in the
Dadaab camp, with 462 cases confirmed including 11 deaths. WHO statistics put the number of children that were then most at the risk of measles at 2 million. although the latter figure dropped to 36% by mid-September according to the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit.
Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) was also treating more than 10,000 severely malnourished children in its feeding centers and clinics. In July 2011, the UN's food security and nutrition analysis unit announced that the situation in southern Somalia then met all three characteristics of widespread famine: a) more than 30 percent of children were suffering from
acute malnutrition; b) more than two adults or four children were dying of hunger each day for every group of 10,000 people; and c) the population had access to less than 2,100
kilocalories of food and four liters of water per day. In August, cholera was suspected in 181 deaths in Mogadishu, along with confirmed reports of several other outbreaks elsewhere in Somalia, thus raising fears of tragedy for a severely weakened population. In mid-November, the office of the
U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) also announced that 60 cholera cases, with 10 lab-confirmed and one fatality, had hit the Dadaab refugee camp in northern Kenya. By early December 2011, the UN's OCHA bureau announced that a scaling up of relief operations had resulted in an improvement in global and severe acute malnutrition rates as well as a decrease in mortality rates in southern Somalia's conflict zones relative to the start of the drought crisis in July/August. Although acute malnutrition rates remained much higher than median global acute malnutrition (GAM) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) rates for the October–December season, global acute malnutrition rates had fallen from 30–58 percent to 20–34 percent and severe acute malnutrition rates in turn dropped from 9–29 percent in July to 6–11 percent. The mortality rate likewise declined from 1.1–6.1 per 10,000 people per day in July/August to 0.6–2.8 per 10,000 people per day. Despite some gaps in aid delivery in certain areas due imposed Islamist bans, the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) also reported that its Nutrition Cluster had by December reached 357,107 of the estimated 450,000 children that had been acutely malnourished at the start of the crisis in July. The United Nations
World Food Programme is considering a return to southern Somalia, from which it withdrew in 2010 after threats from the rebel group Al-Shabaab. It estimates that there are 1 million people in areas it cannot currently access. However, on 22 July, the group stated that the ban on certain organizations remains in place. In a statement, Al-Shabaab's spokesman Sheikh Ali Dhere indicated that his organization had no issue with allowing "Muslims and non-Muslims to help the drought affected people", but that they will "only be permitted to work if they do not have other interests". He stated that banned agencies belong to two categories: some that are acting as spies, while others, including the UN, that have "a political agenda, doing nothing like what they were claiming". He also criticized aid agencies that are providing assistance in neighboring countries, stating that "They are luring needy people with food in order to teach them their Christianity." Hassan Liban, a director of the British charity Islamic Relief which has managed to gain access through negotiations, said that Al-Shabaab were not keen on emergency relief that was not tied to longer-term programmes to help people recover their livelihoods. He stated that "To any organisation that just wants to send food, they say: 'Give us the food and go away'. But if it's sustainable and planned they will allow you to work." Al-Shabaab members have allegedly intimidated, kidnapped and killed some aid workers, leading to a partial suspension of humanitarian operations in southern Somalia. Ethiopia and the UN also accuse the Eritrean government of backing the insurgents. On 28 July,
African Union peacekeepers launched a major offensive against Al-Shabaab militants in northern
Mogadishu, Somalia, in an effort to protect famine relief efforts from attacks. Six were killed during the conflict, and key territory was seized from the insurgents. Al-Shabaab has sent 300 reinforcement fighters to Mogadishu in the preceding days, according to Lt. Col. Paddy Ankunda, spokesman for the AU peacekeeping force in Somalia. He stated that "This action will further increase security ... and ensure that aid agencies can continue to operate to get vital supplies to internally displaced." On 6 August 2011,
Reuters reported that the
Transitional Federal Government's troops and their
AMISOM allies managed to capture all of Mogadishu from the Al-Shabaab militants. Witnesses reported Al-Shabaab vehicles abandoning their bases in the capital for the south-central city of
Baidoa. The group's spokesman Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rage described the exodus as a tactical retreat, and vowed to continue the insurgency against the national government. Observers have also suggested that the pullout may at least in part have been caused by internal ideological rifts in the rebel organization. On 4 July 2011, the Prime Minister of Somalia
Abdiweli Mohamed Ali appointed a national committee to tackle the severe drought affecting the southern part of the country. The committee consists of several federal-level members of government, including the Ministers of Defense, Health, Interior, Finance, Public Works, Women's Affairs and Information. It is tasked with assessing and addressing the needs of the drought-impacted segments of the population. On 13 August, Prime Minister Ali also announced the creation of a new 300-man security force in response to discussions with UN officials about the situation in Mogadishu. The UN stated earlier in the week that aid was only reaching around 20% of the drought-affected peoples, with most of the famine-stricken areas still controlled by Al-Shabaab rebels. Assisted by African peacekeepers, the new military unit will have as its primary goal to protect convoys and food aid, as well as to secure the IDP camps themselves when the relief supplies are being distributed. Besides helping to stabilize the city, the new protection force is also tasked with combating looting and banditry in addition to other vices. (SNA) and
Somali Police Force (SPF) have ramped up security operations in the wake of the drought. On 16 August, Neela Ghoshal, an official with
Human Rights Watch, told Reuters that her group had received complaints of government soldiers robbing civilians. However,
Voice of America reported earlier in the month that, according to witnesses at a camp in Mogadishu, men dressed as government troops began stealing food rations, after which point government soldiers that were guarding the supplies opened fire on the looters. In response to the incident, the Somali government forces Commander General Abdikarim Dhengobadan denied that his men were responsible for the looting. The Information Minister of Somalia Abdirahman Omar Osman and the AMISOM commander Paddy Akunda have also previously accused Al-Shabaab militants of disguising themselves as Somali government soldiers before attacking government and AMISOM positions. Despite this, according to the UN, the security situation in the capital has generally improved since the withdrawal of Al-Shabaab militants, thus facilitating the scaling up of relief efforts in the region. The Spanish branch of Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) announced that all 49 expatriate staff working for the charity would be evacuated to Nairobi, leaving 343 local staff members in Dadaab. Certain activities such as registering new arrivals and journeying outside camp to meet refugees walking the final miles would be suspended. In December 2011, three Somali aid workers were also shot and killed in the central Somali town of Mataban. Two of the workers were UN World Food Programme employees and the third worked for a partner organization. The gunman turned himself in to the local authorities. In October 2011 a coordinated operation,
Operation Linda Nchi, between the
Somali military and the
Kenyan military, began against the Al-Shabaab militants, who are alleged to have kidnapped several foreign aid workers and tourists inside Kenya. According to the Ethiopian Foreign Minister, the mission represents one of the final stages of the
Islamist insurgency. ==International response==