Israel claims that the attack impeded Iraq's nuclear ambitions by at least ten years. In an interview in 2005,
Bill Clinton expressed support for the attack: "everybody talks about what the Israelis did at Osiraq, in 1981, which, I think, in retrospect, was a really good thing. You know, it kept Saddam from developing nuclear power."
Louis René Beres wrote in 1995 that "[h]ad it not been for the brilliant raid at Osiraq, Saddam's forces might have been equipped with atomic warheads in 1991." In 2010, squad leader Ze'ev Raz said of the operation: "There was no doubt in the mind of the decision makers that we couldn't take a chance. We knew that the Iraqis could do exactly what we did in
Dimona." As early as the autumn of 1981,
Kenneth Waltz discussed the fallout from the strike: In 1991,
David Ivry, who had been the commander of the Israeli Air Force at the time of the raid, received a photograph of the destroyed reactor from US Defense Secretary
Dick Cheney with the message "For Gen. David Ivry, with thanks and appreciation for the outstanding job he did on the Iraqi nuclear program in 1981 -- which made our job much easier in Desert Storm."
Charles R. H. Tripp, in an interview for the 25th anniversary of the attack, described the bombing of
Osirak as a variation of Israeli military doctrine beginning with the premiership of
David Ben-Gurion, "advocating devastating
pre-emptive strikes on Arab enemies." Tripp asserted, "the
Osirak attack is an illegal way to behave—Resolution 487 established that—but it is an understandable way to behave if you are the Israeli military-security establishment." In a 1982 conversation Hussein stated that, "Once Iraq walks out victorious [over Iran], there will not be any Israel." Of Israel's anti-Iraqi endeavors, Saddam noted, "Technically, they [the Israelis] are right in all of their attempts to harm Iraq."
Joseph Cirincione, then director of non-proliferation at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in 2006: By contrast, Iraqi researchers have stated that the
Iraqi nuclear program simply went underground, diversified, and expanded.
Khidir Hamza, an Iraqi nuclear scientist, made the following statement in an interview on
CNN's
Crossfire in 2003: Similarly, the Iraqi nuclear scientist Imad Khadduri wrote in 2003 that the bombing of
Osirak convinced the Iraqi leadership to initiate a full-fledged nuclear weapons program. United States Secretary of Defense
William Perry stated in 1997 that Iraq refocused its nuclear weapons effort on producing highly enriched uranium after the raid. In the Duelfer Report, released by the
Iraq Survey Group in 2004, it is stated that the Iraqi nuclear program "expanded considerably" with the purchase of the French reactor in 1976, and that "Israel's bombing of Iraq's
Osirak nuclear reactor spurred Saddam to build up Iraq's military to confront Israel in the early 1980s."
Bob Woodward, in the book
State of Denial, writes:
Richard K. Betts wrote that "there is no evidence that Israel's destruction of Osirak delayed Iraq's nuclear weapons program. The attack may actually have accelerated it."
Dan Reiter has repeatedly said that the attack was a dangerous failure: the bombed reactor had nothing to do with weapons research, while "the attack may have actually increased Saddam's commitment to acquiring weapons." Elsewhere, she wrote: Following
Desert Storm,
Dick Cheney, then the United States Secretary of Defense, thanked the Israeli mission commander for the "outstanding job he did on the Iraqi nuclear program in 1981". While many scholars debate the value of the bombing, Iraq did not possess nuclear weapons at the outbreak of the Gulf War, and, according to Cheney, the bombing made Desert Storm easier. The second use of the
Begin Doctrine was
Operation Orchard in 2007, an Israeli airstrike on a purported
Syrian nuclear target. Like in Operation Opera, the same types of aircraft were involved, although their roles were reversed with the
F-15Is carrying bombs while the
F-16Is provided escort. ==See also==