The Bank of Japan introduced QE from March 19, 2001, until March 2006, after having introduced negative interest rates in 1999. Most western central banks adopted similar policies in the aftermath of the
2008 financial crisis.
Precedents The methods behind QE had been implemented long before its creation. The US Federal Reserve belatedly implemented policies similar to the recent quantitative easing during the
Great Depression of the 1930s. Specifically, banks' excess reserves exceeded 6 percent in 1940, whereas they vanished during the entire postwar period until 2008. Despite this fact, many commentators called the scope of the Federal Reserve quantitative easing program after the 2008 crisis "unprecedented".
Japan (2001–2006) A policy termed "quantitative easing" (量的緩和,
ryōteki kanwa, from 量的 "quantitative" + 緩和 "easing") was first used by the
Bank of Japan (BoJ) to fight domestic
deflation in the
early 2000s. The BOJ had maintained short-term
interest rates at close to zero since 1999. The Bank of Japan had for many years, and as late as February 2001, stated that "quantitative easing ... is not effective" and rejected its use for monetary policy. The Bank of Japan adopted quantitative easing on 19 March 2001. Under quantitative easing, the BOJ flooded commercial banks with excess
liquidity to promote private lending, leaving them with large stocks of
excess reserves and therefore little risk of a liquidity shortage. The BOJ accomplished this by buying more government bonds than would be required to set the interest rate to zero. It later also bought
asset-backed securities and
equities and extended the terms of its
commercial paper-purchasing operation. The BOJ increased commercial bank current account balances from ¥5 trillion to ¥35 trillion (approximately US$300 billion) over a four-year period starting in March 2001. The BOJ also tripled the quantity of long-term Japan government bonds it could purchase on a monthly basis. However, the seven-fold increase notwithstanding, current account balances (essentially central bank reserves) being just one (usually relatively small) component of the liability side of a central bank's balance sheet (the main one being banknotes), the resulting peak increase in the BOJ's balance sheet was modest, compared to later actions by other central banks. The Bank of Japan phased out the QE policy in March 2006.
After 2007 Following the 2008 financial crisis, policies similar to those undertaken by Japan were used by the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Eurozone. Quantitative easing was used by these countries because their risk-free short-term nominal interest rates (termed the
federal funds rate in the US, or the
official bank rate in the UK) were either at or close to zero. According to Thomas Oatley, "QE has been the central pillar of post-crisis economic policy."
United States One of the
Federal Reserve System monetary policy tools is QE along with
forward guidance when controlling short-term interest rates, the central bank's primary monetary policy tool, fails to achieve the desired effect. The two primary mechanisms of monetary policy by which the Fed can effectuate those economic conditions is to raise or lower interest rates or to increase or decrease the
money supply. Within the Fed, the
Federal Open Market Committee is responsible for deciding the Fed's monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of 12 members, including the president of the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 4 presidents from a rotating selection of the 12
Federal Reserve Banks around the country, and 7 members of the system's
Board of Governors. The Fed held between $700 billion and $800 billion of Treasury notes on its
balance sheet before the recession. The US has used QE four times so far in its history, with varying degrees of intensity.
November 2008: QE1. In late November 2008, the Federal Reserve started buying $600 billion in
mortgage-backed securities. By March 2009, it held $1.75 trillion of bank debt, mortgage-backed securities, and Treasury notes; this amount reached a peak of $2.1 trillion in June 2010. Further purchases were halted as the economy started to improve, but resumed in August 2010 when the Fed decided the economy was not growing robustly. After the halt in June, holdings started falling naturally as debt matured and were projected to fall to $1.7 trillion by 2012. The Fed's revised goal became to keep holdings at $2.054 trillion. To maintain that level, the Fed bought $30 billion in two- to ten-year Treasury notes every month.
November 2010: QE2. In November 2010, the Fed announced a second round of quantitative easing, buying $600 billion of
Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011. The expression "QE2" became a ubiquitous nickname in 2010, used to refer to this second round of quantitative easing by US central banks. Retrospectively, the round of quantitative easing preceding QE2 was called "QE1".
September 2012: QE3. A third round of quantitative easing, "QE3", was announced on 13 September 2012. In an 11–1 vote, the Federal Reserve decided to launch a new $40 billion per month, open-ended bond purchasing program of agency mortgage-backed securities. Additionally, the
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it would likely maintain the
federal funds rate near zero "at least through 2015". According to NASDAQ.com, this is effectively a stimulus program that allows the Federal Reserve to relieve $40 billion per month of commercial housing market debt risk. Because of its open-ended nature, QE3 has earned the popular nickname of "QE-Infinity". On 12 December 2012, the FOMC announced an increase in the amount of open-ended purchases from $40 billion to $85 billion per month. On 19 June 2013,
Ben Bernanke announced a "tapering" of some of the Fed's QE policies contingent upon continued positive economic data. Specifically, he said that the Fed could scale back its bond purchases from $85 billion to $65 billion a month during the upcoming September 2013 policy meeting. He also suggested that the bond-buying program could wrap up by mid-2014. While Bernanke did not announce an interest rate hike, he suggested that if inflation followed a 2% target rate and unemployment decreased to 6.5%, the Fed would likely start raising rates. The stock markets dropped by approximately 4.3% over the three trading days following Bernanke's announcement, with the Dow Jones dropping 659 points between 19 and 24 June, closing at 14,660 at the end of the day on 24 June. On 18 September 2013, the Fed decided to hold off on scaling back its bond-buying program, and announced in December 2013 that it would begin to taper its purchases in January 2014. Purchases were halted on 29 October 2014 after accumulating $4.5 trillion in assets.
March 2020: QE4. The Federal Reserve began conducting its fourth quantitative easing operation since the
2008 financial crisis; on 15 March 2020, it announced approximately $700 billion in new quantitative easing via asset purchases to support US liquidity in response to the
COVID-19 pandemic. As of mid-summer 2022 this resulted in an additional $2 trillion in assets on the books of the Federal Reserve.
United Kingdom The
Bank of England's QE programme commenced in March 2009, when it purchased around £165 billion in assets as of September 2009 and around £175 billion in assets by the end of October 2009. Five further tranches of bond purchases between 2009 and November 2020 brought the peak QE total to £895 billion. The Bank imposed a number of constraints on the QE policy, namely, that it would not buy more than 70% of any issue of government debt; and that it would only buy traditional (non-index-linked) debt, with a maturity of more than three years. Originally, the bonds eligible for purchase were limited to UK government debt, but this was later relaxed to include high quality commercial bonds. QE was primarily designed as an instrument of monetary policy. The mechanism required the Bank of England to purchase government bonds on the secondary market, financed by the creation of new
central bank money. This would have the effect of increasing the asset prices of the bonds purchased, thereby lowering yields and dampening longer term interest rates and making it cheaper for businesses to raise capital. The aim of the policy was initially to ease liquidity constraints in the sterling reserves system, but evolved into a wider policy to provide economic stimulus. Another side effect is that investors will switch to other investments, such as shares, boosting their price and thus encouraging consumption. In 2012 the Bank estimated that quantitative easing had benefited households differentially according to the assets they hold; richer households have more assets. In February 2022 the Bank of England announced its intention to commence winding down the QE portfolio. Initially this would be achieved by not replacing tranches of maturing bonds, and would later be accelerated through active bond sales. In August 2022 the Bank of England reiterated its intention to accelerate the QE wind down through active bond sales. This policy was affirmed in an exchange of letters between the Bank of England and the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in September 2022. Between February 2022 and September 2022, a total of £37.1bn of government bonds matured, reducing the outstanding stock from £875.0bn at the end of 2021 to £837.9bn. In addition, a total of £1.1bn of corporate bonds matured, reducing the stock from £20.0bn to £18.9bn, with sales of the remaining stock planned to begin on 27 September. On 28 September 2022 the Bank of England issued a Market Notice announcing its intention to "carry out purchases of long dated gilts in a temporary and targeted way". This was in response to market conditions in which the sterling exchange rate and bond asset pricing were significantly disrupted following a UK government fiscal statement. The Bank stated its announcement would apply to conventional gilts of residual maturity greater than 20 years in the secondary market. The existing constraints applicable to QE bond purchases would continue to apply. The funding of the purchases would be met from central bank reserves, but would be segregated in a different portfolio from existing asset purchases. The Bank also announced that its annual £80bn target to reduce the existing QE portfolio remained unchanged but, in the light of current market conditions, the beginning of gilt sale operations would be postponed to 31 October 2022.
Eurozone The
European Central Bank engaged in large-scale purchase of covered bonds in May 2009, and purchased around €250 billion worth of sovereign bonds from targeted member states in 2010 and 2011 (the SMP Programme). However, until 2015 the ECB refused to openly admit they were doing quantitative easing. In a dramatic change of policy, following the new
Jackson Hole Consensus, on 22 January 2015
Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, announced an "expanded asset purchase programme", where €60 billion per month of euro-area bonds from central governments, agencies and European institutions would be bought. Beginning in March 2015, the stimulus was planned to last until September 2016 at the earliest with a total QE of at least €1.1 trillion. Mario Draghi announced the programme would continue: "until we see a continued adjustment in the path of inflation", referring to the ECB's need to combat the growing threat of
deflation across the eurozone in early 2015. In March 2016, the ECB increased its monthly bond purchases to €80 billion from €60 billion and started to include corporate bonds under the asset purchasing programme and announced new ultra-cheap four-year loans to banks. From November 2019, the ECB resumed buying up eurozone government bonds at a rate of €20 billion in an effort to encourage governments to borrow more and spend in domestic investment projects. In March 2020, to help the economy absorb the shock of the COVID-19 crisis, the ECB announced a €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). The aim of the stimulus package (PEPP) was to lower borrowing costs and increase lending in the euro area.
Switzerland At the beginning of 2013, the
Swiss National Bank had the largest balance sheet relative to the size of its economy. It was responsible for close to 100% of Switzerland's national output. A total of 12% of its reserves were in foreign equities. By contrast, the US Federal Reserve's holdings equated to about 20% of US GDP, while the European Central Bank's assets were worth 30% of GDP. The SNB's balance sheet has increased massively due to its QE program, to the extent that in December 2020, the
US treasury accused
Switzerland of being a "
currency manipulator". The US administration recommended that Switzerland increase the
retirement age for Swiss workers to reduce saving assets by the
Swiss social security administration, in order to boost domestic demand and reduce the necessity to maintain QE to stabilize the parity between the dollar and the Swiss franc.
Sweden Sveriges Riksbank launched quantitative easing in February 2015, announcing government bond purchases of nearly 1.2 billion USD. The annualized inflation rate in January 2015 was −0.3%, and the bank implied that Sweden's economy could slide into deflation.
Japan after 2007 and Abenomics In early October 2010, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it would examine the purchase of ¥5 trillion (US$60 billion) in assets. This was an attempt to push down the value of the yen against the US dollar to stimulate the domestic economy by making Japanese exports cheaper; however, it was ineffective. On 4 August 2011 the BOJ announced a unilateral move to increase the commercial bank current account balance from ¥40 trillion (US$504 billion) to a total of ¥50 trillion (US$630 billion). In October 2011, the bank expanded its asset purchase program by ¥5 trillion ($66bn) to a total of ¥55 trillion. On 4 April 2013, the Bank of Japan announced that it would expand its asset purchase program by ¥60 trillion to ¥70 trillion per year. The bank hoped to banish deflation and achieve an inflation rate of 2% within two years. This would be achieved through a QE program worth US$1.4 trillion, an amount so large it is expected to double the money supply. This policy has been named
Abenomics, a
portmanteau of
economic policies from
Shinzō Abe, the former
Prime Minister of Japan. On 31 October 2014, the BOJ announced the expansion of its bond buying program, to purchase ¥80 trillion of bonds a year. In addition to purchases of bonds, Governor Masaaki Shirakawa also directed the BOJ to begin purchasing corporate shares as well as debt securities in October 2010. The BOJ came up with a policy to purchase index ETFs as part of the 2010 Comprehensive Monetary Easing program, which initially placed a cap of ¥450 billion shares with a termination in December 2011. However, later Governor Haruhiko Kuroda replaced the program with the Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing policy which empowered the BOJ to buy ETFs with no cap or termination date, with an increased annual target of ¥1 trillion. The cap was raised multiple times to over ¥19 trillion by March 2018. And on March 16, 2020, following the COVID-19 pandemic, the BOJ doubled its annual ETF purchase target to ¥12 trillion. == Effectiveness of QE ==