Race to the WH was founded in 2020 by Logan Phillips. Phillips started the program when he was getting his graduate degree at
Columbia University. He studied Presidential Campaign Management under
Karine Jean Pierre, the former Biden
press secretary. Phillips worked on
Hillary Clinton's
2016 presidential election campaign and
Dannel Malloy's re-election campaign for governor of Connecticut in
2014. Race to the WH uses a political model with
quantitative data to forecast their election, instead of using
qualitative data. They create a forecast in which they simulate the national
popular vote, factor it onto the current
partisan lean of a state, comparing it to results from the last 50 years of elections in that state, and then running it through the a simulator. During this, they also take partisan drift (how a state has been moving relative to the nation in recent elections) and recent
special election performance as factors as well. They then run their model over 50,000 times and then average it to find the most common results, accounting for factors of over performance with a
demographic or region. Lastly, they then run their models filtering conditions to match previous elections to test the accuracy of the model. In the 2024 cycle, Race to the WH provided polling averages to
Split Ticket for their
House of Representatives predictions. Logan Phillips also did a joint interview with Lakshya Jain of Split Ticket on
Politico about the
2024 presidential election. ==Predictions==