Results The race for Congress was much closer than expected; control of Congress remained uncertain for several days, and the House remained too close to call for over a week, Abortion and the economy were major issues, and young and independent voters, which Democrats narrowly won while keeping enough of their key voting blocs and could explain their key wins, turned out in record numbers particularly in some key swing states, which were won by Democrats; it is not agreed among experts only to what extent and by how much the youth vote helped Democrats. 2022 is the first midterm since the
1934 U.S. elections in which the president's party did not lose any state legislative chambers or incumbent senators. It was also the first midterm since the
1986 U.S. elections in which either party achieved a net gain of governorships while holding the presidency, which last happened for Republicans in the
1986 U.S. gubernatorial elections, and gained in the Senate, even though the president's party usually lose many seats in the midterm elections; In addition, Democrats gained a Senate seat in Pennsylvania where
John Fetterman defeated
Mehmet Oz, while they held their seat in Georgia in a
runoff election, Many factors have been attributed to the lack of a red wave and better-than-expected performance for Democrats, including the quality of candidates, youth turnout, Incumbent president
Joe Biden, a Democrat, and incumbent Florida governor
Ron DeSantis of the Republican Party, as well as
reproductive rights, have been widely considered as the biggest winners, while former president
Donald Trump was considered to be the biggest loser by the election results.
Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democratic House coalition's fundraising arm, lost his reelection bid after ten years in Congress.
Gretchen Whitmer, the incumbent Democrat, won the
2022 Michigan gubernatorial election. On the Republican side, incumbent governors performed well.
Greg Abbott won the
2022 Texas gubernatorial election, while
Brian Kemp won the
2022 Georgia gubernatorial election; in both cases, they defeated the Democratic opponents,
Beto O'Rourke and
Stacey Abrams, respectively, who had lost by narrower margins in 2018. results showed that he performed better than other Republicans among Hispanics, who got mixed results. Both parties elected female governors, resulting in the most female governors in U.S. history. Incumbent
Laura Kelly of the Democratic Party narrowly won the
2022 Kansas gubernatorial election, Despite losses, Republicans flipped a governorship from Democrats by winning the
2022 Nevada gubernatorial election, in which
Joe Lombardo defeated the incumbent
Steve Sisolak, For over a week, control of the state legislatures of Alaska, Arizona, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania was not determined. In New Hampshire, where Democrats made gains, the race for the House was so close that a series of recounts and legal challenges have followed, leaving the state of the race uncertain. In Pennsylvania, Republicans retained control of the Senate but the House was too close; by November 16, Democrats regained control of the House for the first time since 2010. Referendums to preserve or expand abortion access won in all six states where they were on the ballot (California, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, and Vermont). Senator
Lindsey Graham commented: "It's certainly not a red wave, that's for darn sure. But it is clear that we will take back the House." On November 9, when the results for the House were still uncertain, the Republican House leader
Kevin McCarthy launched his bid to succeed long-time House Democrats leader
Nancy Pelosi as
Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. In a letter asking for support among Republicans, he wrote: "I trust you know that earning the majority is only the beginning. Now, we will be measured by what we do with our majority. Now the real work begins." On November 30,
Hakeem Jeffries was selected by acclamation as the Democratic nominee for the House speakership. Earlier on November 15, McCarthy won an internal Republican caucus poll as their speaker nominee. As several members of the Republican caucus did not vote for him and have expressed opposition to his speakership, it cast doubt on how the U.S. speaker election on January 3 would unfold. McCarthy would ultimately be elected speaker, but on the 15th ballot, due to internal divisions within the
House Republican Conference. This resulted in the first speaker election since
1923 in which the speaker was not elected on the first ballot.
Analysis Polls both prior to and after the elections found that the status of the economy and inflation was the most important issue for voters, with concern about abortion being relatively low compared to them, Florida and New York were the exception to this national trend. The lack of a red wave election was attributed to, among others, Increasing concerns over
climate change and the higher approval of the
Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 compared to the previous climate policy also played a role in it, where Fetterman improved on Biden's 2020 results from white voters without a college degree. Democrats also performed well in Colorado and
New England, while Republicans made gains in Florida and New York. In New York, where Democrats suffered major losses, a gerrymander had been rejected by the courts, while gerrymanders in Florida and Tennessee gave Republicans more seats by virtue of the redistricted map being much more Republican-leaning. Defensive gerrymanders helped both parties hold competitive seats in various states; Republican gains in New York and Democratic gains in North Carolina and Ohio were made possible because
state supreme courts overturned gerrymanders passed by their
state legislatures.
Close results While it is normal to take several days to know the results, including
blue shifts and red mirages as Democrats vote by mail more often than Republicans, the fact the race for Congress was competitive, and also closer than expected, resulted in control of the House being uncalled for over a week, the Senate also remained too close to call. as they made a gain in Pennsylvania's open race, while three races remained uncalled, all of which are Democratic-held; and had to defend their net gain in the Georgia
runoff election in December 2022, a competitive election where polls gave Warnock a small edge but remained within the margin of error and both candidates could win, as some polls came from pollsters without established records. Republican attempts to stop early voting, such as the Saturday after Thanksgiving, were blocked by a state court. There was also some concern that Georgia's new state law, which shortened the runoff campaign period, would have negative effects on turnout; research shows that this particularly affects turnout among voters of color. By November 12, Democrats had retained the Senate, as the Democratic incumbents in Arizona and Nevada (
Mark Kelly and
Catherine Cortez Masto, respectively) were projected to have retained their seat. Warnock, the Democratic incumbent, won the runoff in Georgia on December 6, Some gubernatorial races, such as in Arizona and Nevada, were not projected for several days, as they were too close call. refused to concede. Over two weeks later, results in many races were still unknown. including upsets in , , and congressional districts, and narrowly missed by 550 votes a further upset for the seat held by
Lauren Boebert. On November 10–12, Republicans were favored to regain control of the House with a narrow majority of 3 seats (221–214) according to
NBC News, with 218 seats needed for a majority. 211–203 according to the
Associated Press, By November 14, Republicans were projected to possibly have a narrow majority in the House by as little as a single seat. which was followed on November 16 by NBC News,
Demographic trends Starting in
2012, Democrats suffered losses among the
American working class, particularly whites. Since
2016, Republicans made gains among minorities who are working class or
Hispanic and Latino Americans; at the same time, Democrats continued to improve among college-educated whites, which helped them win in 2020. though not to the extent they expected, According to
exit polls, such as from Edison Research, Democrats won a majority of voters under $30,000 and $30,000–49,999, while Republicans won a majority of voters in the $50,000–99,999 and $100,000–199,999 income brackets, with the bigger gap between the two parties being that of those over $200,000, whom Republicans also won.
Simon Rosenberg was one exception. Republican pollsters such as the
Trafalgar Group had a notable polling miss, with errors well outside the margin of error in races such as the
2022 U.S. Senate election in Washington. Since 2016 and 2020, the latter of which was at the height of the
COVID-19 pandemic, polling companies attempted to understand the misses in recent years and how to get better. There were also fewer polls in general, and a larger share came from partisan sources. On election eve, an unweighted average of 17 polls indicated that Republicans were expected to defeat Democrats by 2.5% in the generic congressional vote. Polls were relatively good, but did not exclude that 2022 could be akin 1998 or 2002 (after
Dobbs) or have a bias in favor of Republicans, as it happened. assumed the possibility that polls underestimated Republicans; its polls-only version saw the Senate as a tossup. Many pollsters had their own worries, and many feared they would miss Republican overperformances as it happened in 2016 and 2020 in particular.
Potential green wave Some environmental organizations and media described the result as a green wave, saying candidates addressing climate change did better compared to those considered who did not. Among Republicans who won, they did not campaign against climate measures in the
Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Biden specifically thanked young climate voters.
Speculation about 2024 elections Democrats performed well in states that could be key to the
2024 U.S. elections, and their better-than-expected performance may have avoided a damaging primary for the incumbent president; with many more seats to defend than Republicans. As some moderate Republicans admitted that the party had an extremist problem and had a moment of reckoning, as well as infighting, many analysts believed that the results set up a potential contest between DeSantis and Trump for the
2024 Republican Party presidential primaries. Despite losses, Trump called the results a "great evening", though those close to him reported him "livid" and "furious with everyone" for the losses, in particular the Senate open seat in Pennsylvania. About DeSantis, Trump stated that he was ready to reveal what he described as "bad things" about him, claiming to know him "more than anyone else, perhaps more than [his wife]." On November 18, attorney general
Merrick Garland announced that he appointed
Jack Smith as a special counsel to run part of the
Department of Justice's probe into the
January 6 Capitol attack, which could affect his eligibility under the
14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution as argued by some legal experts, as well as the
FBI investigation into Trump's handling of government documents. Trump's 2024 campaign announcement received wide media coverage and a mixed response from both Democrats and Republicans. Some Democrats warily welcomed the campaign, viewing Trump as beatable, while other Democrats, along with many observers and some Republicans, opposed it, citing the negative effects it could have on U.S. democracy. Some Republicans, consisting mostly of Trump loyalists, welcomed the campaign, while others opposed it, viewing him as a weak candidate who had lost Republicans the past several election cycles including the 2022 midterms and engaged in conspiracy theories, and also cited his legal troubles.
Turnout Voter turnout was relatively high by midterm standards, with an estimated 46.6% of the voting-eligible population casting a ballot. After the
blue wave of 2018, it was the second highest since the
1970 U.S. elections. The trend was further confirmed by turnout among young voters (18–29), which was also the highest (after 2018) since the 1970s, and helped Democrats, even as Republicans turned out in greater numbers; for example, youth and Latino voters turnout in a battleground state like Arizona was historically high. According to the Edison Research National Election Pool, the youth vote for the House was 63–35 in favor of Democrats. Pollster Antonio Arellano commented that young voters were the only age group in which more than 50 percent of voters supported Democrats. ==Milestones==