2018 Democratic Republic of the Congo general election

Glissement 2014 From 2014, the question of whether Kabila would run for a third term and if elections were even going to be held, were the biggest political issues in the country. From 2015, this process of the government attempting to delay elections in order to hold on to power became known as glissement (sliding). While the Constitution explicitly limited the presidency to two terms and prohibited any amendments to extend this limit, discussions persisted throughout the year about various ways to prolong Kabila's rule, including potential constitutional revisions. Supporters and opponents of a third term were found within both the government and the opposition. Among the most vocal proponents of an extension were Evariste Boshab, the head of Kabila's People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD), Monseigneur Marini Bodho, head of the Church of Christ in the Congo, and Minister of Transport and Channels of Communication Kin-Kiey Mulumba. While Senate President Léon Kengo wa Dondo and the Episcopal Conference of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (CENCO) openly opposed revisions to the constitution. Kabila himself never took a position but the reorganization in the military to allow for closer personal control over the armed forces, as well as the establishment of a government of national cohesion that stregenthened his Alliance of the Presidential Majority (AMP) coalition, while also giving the political opposition some high-ranking positions in an attempt to statify them, suggested he supported it, especially since all key positions related to the question of a third term for Kabila were filled by loyalists. being appointed as the new CENI president. On 4 May, Justice Minister Alexis Thambwe Mwamba launched an investigation into claims that Katumbi had hired foreign mercenaries, including US citizens, the same day that Katumbi made his candidacy official. Summoned to court in Lubumbashi days later, he appeared alongside several opposition figures. His court appearances over the following days sparked large protests, leading to clashes between his supporters and the police. On 13 May, Katumbi was hospitalized due to tear gas exposure during the unrest. Five days later, an arrest warrant was issued against him, but he was granted leave from the country for medical treatment. Katumbi immediately departed for South Africa, remaining in exile while continuing his political activities. On 22 June, he was sentenced in absentia to three years in prison and fined $6 million for real-estate fraud. An investigation by the CENCO into these convictions was leaked to the press on 4 May 2017, confirming the political nature of the cases. In response, the government opened a third case against Katumbi on 13 May for alleged tax evasion. 2017 Etienne Tshisekedi's leadership wouldn't last for long as he died on 1 February, taking with him the opposition's capacity to mobilise the masses, leading to the opposition's disintegration. When Felix Tshisekedi was designated to lead the UDPS and Rassemblemen, some of his father's long-term companions contested the monarchist style of the succession, forming dissident groups such as the Rassemblement Kasa-Vubu and several UDPS factions, Exploiting these divisions, Kabila was able to co-opt and integrate its members, appointing Rassemblement/UDPS dissident Bruno Tshibala as prime minister even though there was a dispute over the nomination process. This selection technically fulfilled part of the Sylvester Agreement but also increased the fragmentation of the opposition. In response, the mainline Rassemblement called for mass demonstrations on 10 April. The turnout was low and soon turned into a general strike as the authorities banned public demonstrations and heavily deployed security forces. Given the high risks to their safety, opposition followers were discouraged from participating, with Felix Tshisekedi himself immediately leaving for Ethiopia after calling for the popular uprising. On 9 May, Prime Minister Tshibala presented his 59-member transitional government, made up mostly of members from the previous government, with some positions going to Rassemblement dissidents. The CENI completed the registration of 46 million voters on 31 January, an increase of 12%, sparking concerns over fictitious voters. An independent audit by the Organisation internationale de la Francophonie (OIF) on 25 May appeared to show this with it reporting that 6.7 million voters had been registered without sufficient identification and that 400,000 voters would be underage at the time of elections, and that 1.2 million blank id cards had disappeared. The OIF recommended a publication of the provisional voter register, which ceni only started in September. According to Human Rights Watch, government security forces used live rounds to disperse crowds of opposition supporters throughout August 2018, stating that the total death toll by then since 2015 was 300 people. HRW also documented attempts by the Congolese government to persecute members of the opposition. In late December, the government further delayed voting in three cities until 31 March 2019. Those include Beni and Butembo in North Kivu province, due to the 2018 Ebola outbreak as well as the ongoing military conflict, and Yumbi in the western Mai-Ndombe province, where about 900 people were killed throughout December by inter-ethnic violence. This was criticized as these regions are known as opposition strongholds. ==Electoral system==

casting his vote on 30 December 2018 According to Article 71 of the DRC Constitution, the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is elected by plurality vote in one round. Article 72 specifies that the requirements to stand as a candidate for the presidency include being a Congolese citizen and at least thirty years old. Article 101 of the Constitution provides the basis for electing a National Assembly. For the first time, electronic voting machines were used in a Congolese election. This has raised concerns about vote-rigging, particularly after a warehouse fire in Kinshasa destroyed 8,000 voting machines, which represent more than two-thirds of the voting machines that had been planned to be used in the city. ==Candidates==

Kabila's successor On 1 July 2018, members of the AMP and moderate opposition groups launched a new coalition called the Common Front for Congo (FFC), with Kabila at its head, to support a "sole candidate for the presidential elections running on the basis of a common programme". It was unclear whether Kabila himself would be the candidate, as he asked each party within the coalition to propose four candidates while retaining the authority to select the final nominee. Several initiatives were launched in 2018, and opposition meetings were held in Kinshasa, Brussels, Johannesburg, and Pretoria. These would prove fruitless, however, due to each party's traditional regionalism and the unwillingness of the opposition figures to set aside their personal ambitions for a greater cause. Rassemblement, having already suffered from splits, proved unable to survive even with a Felix Tshisekedi and Pierre Lumbi's co-chairmanship, with other opposition leaders leaving to form their own coalitions. One of these leaders, Katumbi, with several opposition parties, including those in the Alternation for the Republic and G7 coalitions, formed Together for Change on 11 March 2018, designating Katumbi as their presidential candidate. The next day, Katumbi once again attempted to return to the country, this time to run. Members of the AMP attempted to stop this by stating that since he had dual citizenship, he couldn't run for office under the constitution, but since this would've affected other dual citizen AMP members, the government dropped this point and simply barred him from entering the country. When opposition leaders jointly requested that Katumbi be allowed to return and run, the government issued an international arrest warrant against him. Jean-Philibert Mabaya and his Rainbow of Congo (ACC) on 3 December, and Nzanga Mobutu and his Zaire group, which included the Union of Mobutist Democrats, on 8 December. Others In total, 21 candidates were approved for the presidential contest, and some 34,900 candidates were approved to run for the 500 national and 715 provincial assembly seats. The final list was published on 19 September. Disqualified candidates On 3 September, the Constitutional Court of the DRC upheld the national election commission's decision to ban six potential candidates from taking part in the election, including opposition leader Jean-Pierre Bemba. • Samy Badibanga, former prime minister. • Jean-Pierre Bemba • Antoine Gizenga, 93-year-old former associate of Patrice Lumumba and former prime minister of the DRC under Kabila. • Moïse Katumbi • Adolphe Muzito • Bruno Tshibala ==Opinion polls==

Opinion polling is rare in the Democratic Republic of the Congo due to poor roads and lack of electricity. Nevertheless, the Congo Research Group (CRG) released a poll in October 2016 of 7,545 respondents in the country's 26 provinces. The poll found that 33% would vote for Katumbi, 18% for Etienne Tshisekedi, and 7.8% for Kabila. A May 2017 poll of 7,500 respondents carried out by CRG/BERCI found that 38% would vote for Katumbi, 10% for Kabila, 5% each for Félix Tshisekedi, Vital Kamerhe and Jean-Pierre Bemba, 24% for other candidates, and 13% would not vote. A March 2018 poll carried out by the CRG showed Katumbi obtaining 26%, Tshisekedi with 14%, Adolphe Muzito and Kamerhe tied at 9%, Kabila with 7%, and Augustin Mataya Ponyo and Aubin Minaku with 3% each. A June 2018 Top Congo FM poll amongst opposition supporters showed Katumbi winning 54% of the opposition's vote, with Kamerhe at 34%, Bemba at 7%, and Tshisekedi at 5%. In October 2018, the Congo Research Group released a poll that showed Tshisekedi winning 36% of the overall vote, with Kamerhe winning 17%, Shadary winning 16%, and Fayulu winning 8%, with 5% undecided or not voting. The remaining votes went to minor candidates. ==Post-voting process==

On the afternoon of 31 December 2018, the NetBlocks internet observatory reported regional internet disruptions in Kinshasa and Lubumbashi and the subsequent loss of connectivity across the DRC. The signal of Radio France Internationale, the country's most popular news source, was also blocked with a spokesman stating that the restrictions were implemented by Congolese authorities to prevent the spread of "fictitious results" published on social media and maintain order. The following day, representatives of the U.S., European Union, Swiss and Canadian missions in Kinshasa urged the DRC to restore Internet access. On 2 January 2019, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and African Union (AU) observation missions stated that the voting went "relatively well" and was peaceful, despite the logistical problems in the DRC. Western diplomatic sources speaking with Church officials reported that they identified Martin Fayulu as the winner with 60% of the votes., However, Rev. Donatien Nshole, the church's secretary general, later retracted the church's allegations following a meeting with Kabila on 8 January, claiming that "we said there was a winner but we did not mention any name nor give any figures." On 4 January, United States President Donald Trump deployed 80 U.S. troops to the nearby country of Gabon to stand by in case violence broke in the DRC over the election results. On 9 January, the U.S. embassy in Kinshasa warned American citizens to leave the country due to possible election-related violence. On 5 January, election commission chairman Cornielle Nangaa announced that preliminary results would not be announced on the scheduled date of 6 January, as the commission had only received less than half of the ballots. On 8 January, Kabila adviser Kikaya Bin Karubi denied an allegation made by two aides of Felix Tshisekedi which claimed that Tshisekedi was the presumed winner and that Kabila officials had been meeting with aides of Tshisekedi since the end of the election so Kabila would hand power to Tshisekedi. Police in anti-riot gear were deployed in front of the electoral commission headquarters in Kinshasa on 9 January. That same day, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and other members of SADC urged the Congolese government to finalize the results quickly. Announcement of results In the early morning of the following day, 10 January 2019, after reading the results of over 700 candidacies for provincial elections from across the country, the commission announced Felix Tshisekedi as the winner of the presidential vote. Tshisekedi vowed to become "the president of all DR Congolese." ==Results==

President National Assembly ==Aftermath==

Accusations of fraud Second-place candidate Martin Fayulu claimed that the results were rigged later that day, stating "In 2006, Jean-Pierre Bemba's victory was stolen, in 2011, Étienne Tshisekedi's victory was stolen. In 2018 victory won't be stolen from Martin Fayulu." Furthermore, he claimed that Tshisekedi and Kabila had entered into a power-sharing deal, which was denied by Tshiseked. in exchange for allowing Kabila to control parliament and all the provincial governments. According to Jason Stearns, several regional and international powers, including Kenya and the United States, gave the secret agreement their tacit blessing, with then-United States Ambassador to the Democratic Republic of the Congo later telling him "This was the best deal we could get. It was either this or Kabila stays in power." On 11 January, Fayulu claimed he received 62% of the vote and said he would challenge the result in the country's Constitutional Court. The Court could confirm Tshisekedi, order a recount, or cancel the results and call for new elections. But Fayulu admitted that he did not believe he would have any success, saying the court is "composed of Kabila's people." He also claimed that "Felix Tshisekedi has been nominated by Mr Kabila to perpetuate the Kabila regime. Because today the boss is Kabila." Tshisekedi's spokesman denied that there was any deal between them. Fayulu officially filed a challenge to the results on 12 January. A joint investigation by the Financial Times and Radio France Internationale appeared to reveal that massive fraud occurred during the election. FT claimed on 15 January that its analysis of two separate collections of voting data — one from an anonymous person close to Fayulu who said they had obtained it with the help of a whistleblower, representing about 86% of votes cast, and another from the Episcopal Conference (CENCO), which represents all Congolese bishops and fielded 39,824 observers on election day — showed Fayulu as the clear winner of the election. According to the Congo Research Group (CRG), the CENI leak was provided to several journalists by members of the opposition close to Fayulu, who all claimed they obtained it with the help of a whistleblower. At least one journalist claimed to have managed to contact the alleged source of the leak and the whistleblower's account was deemed credible. The CENCO leak was given to journalists from different sources within the organization. The CENI leak indicated that Fayulu received 59.42% of the vote, followed by Felix Tshisekedi with 18.97% and Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary with 18.54%. CENCO's tallies were 62.80%, 15.00%, and 17.99%, respectively. The following day, 11 January, at least one protester was killed in Goma. On 18 January, the UN human rights office has said that 34 people have been killed, 59 wounded, and 241 arbitrarily arrested since the announcement of the provisional results on 10 January. International reactions The governments of France and Belgium also issued statements questioning the official result. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian claimed that Fayulu was expected to be declared the winner. Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders also doubted the result, saying that Belgium would use its temporary UN Security Council seat to investigate the situation. British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said he was "very concerned about discrepancies" in the results. In an official statement, Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres urged all parties to "refrain from violence" and "live up to their responsibility in preserving stability." The United Nations Security Council issued a statement drafted by the French delegation urging all sides to respect the outcome of the vote on 15 January. Representatives of Russia and China stated that they oppose foreign interference in the DRC election. A number of African Union heads of state and government met in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa on 17 January, issuing a statement that the organization had "serious doubts" about the provisional results and calling on the Congolese government to delay the release of the final results. The AU also stated that it would send a delegation to the DRC with "the view to reaching a consensus on a way out of the post-electoral crisis." The delegation would include AU commission head Moussa Faki and AU chairman, the President of Rwanda, Paul Kagame. After the Constitutional Court ruling upholding Tshisekedi's victory on 20 January, Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa both sent their congratulations to Tshisekedi and recognized him as the next president. AU spokeswoman Ebba Kalondo also issued a statement revealing that the AU agreed to postpone the DRC delegation talks. Kalondo claimed "I can confirm to you that the trip has been postponed. Not canceled." By 22 January, the AU and EU had agreed to support Tshisekedi's presidency as well. On 23 January, the United States agreed to support the court's certification of Tshisekdi's victory and also work with the incoming DRC President's government as well. Constitutional Court appeal Fayulu officially filed a court case on 12 January. Proceedings began on 15 January and armed riot police were deployed outside the Palace of Justice in Kinshasa. Lawyers representing Fayulu have said that the poll was rigged and have urged the Constitutional Court to order a recount. The Court ruling rejected appeals for a recount, with the verdict declaring Tshisekedi "President of the Democratic Republic of Congo by simple majority." Government spokesman Lambert Mende stated afterwards "Felix Tshisekedi will become the fifth president of the republic." After the ruling Fayulu claimed to be the "only legitimate president" and has called for mass protests. In a statement he said "The constitutional court has just confirmed that it serves a dictatorial regime ... by validating false results, (and enabling) a constitutional coup d'etat." Fayulu also called on the international community to not recognize this result. Hundreds of Tshisekedi supporters gathered outside of the court building. ==Post-court ruling==

Following the ruling, on 20 January the government restored Internet access in the country, ending a 20-day shutdown of the Internet that began on 31 December 2018. On 21 January, the day after the Constitutional Court rejected Fayulu's appeal, it became known that Tshisekedi's scheduled inauguration date (22 January) may be delayed by two days until 24 January. It was announced later that the inauguration was postponed, though no official reason was given. Police dispersed a crowd of Fayulu supporters who had gathered to hear him speak in front of his coalition's headquarters. Nevertheless, the inauguration of Tshisekedi occurred on the rescheduled date of 24 January 2019. In a speech Tshisekedi at the Palais de la Nation in Kinshasa called for a "reconciled country," and stated that "We want to build a strong Congo, turned towards its development, in peace and security – a Congo for all in which everyone has a place." On 28 January the newly elected parliament began its first session. The overdue election for the Senate of the DRC occurred on 14 March 2019. Parties aligned with former president Kabila's Common Front for Congo (FCC) won a majority of Senate seats, giving them control of both the upper and lower house of the legislature and potentially making President Tshisekedi's attempts to reform the government more limited. The President's UPDS party won very few seats. That same month elections took place for 23 provincial governors, most of them also won by FCC candidates. Several months into the Tshisekedi administration, by the start of May 2019 the President had not yet appointed a prime minister or a new cabinet. On 20 May, it was announced that Tshisekedi and Kabila had reached a deal, deciding to appoint the career civil servant and Kabila ally Sylvestre Ilunga as prime minister. Due to the pro-Kabila parties having the majority in parliament, they have the constitutional power to nominate the candidate for the head of government. On 27 July 2019, more than six months after the election the President and the parliament came to an agreement on forming a new government, beginning Ilunga's formal nomination process for prime minister. Ilunga's new cabinet will include 65 members, of which 42 will go to FCC candidates. Notably, the ministries of Defense, Justice, and Finance will be controlled by the Kabila coalition. ==References==