Hualca Hualca formed first among the three volcanoes. Later activity shifted to
Ampato and finally to Sabancaya, after a period where both Ampato and Sabancaya were active. Holocene activity at Sabancaya has been subdivided into two or three stages, Sabancaya I, Sabancaya II and Sabancaya III in the three-stage model and a principal cone-basal lava flow fields in the two-stage model; there is also an eight-stage model for the overall growth of the volcano. Sabancaya is the youngest volcano of Peru. Dating efforts have yielded ages of 12,340 ±550, 6,650 ±320, 6,300 ±310, 5,440 ±40, 5,200 ±100 and 4,100 ±100 years
before present on various lava flows of the basal lava flow field stage, indicating that effusive activity started shortly after the beginning of the Holocene and built the basal edifice.
Pyroclastic eruptions are less common and have a low volume. Layers dated 8,500 years before present, 2500-2100
BC, 420–150 BC, 100 BC – 150 AD and between 1200 and 1400 AD, could have originated either on Sabancaya or
Ampato. There is evidence that early and middle-Holocene Sabancaya mostly erupted lava, while the late-Holocene volcano was more explosive in its activity. Some lava flows might have remained hot for millennia after emplacement. Thirteen tephra-producing eruptions took place between 4,150 ±40 and 730 ±35 years ago. It is possible that the
Inca performed
human sacrifices in response to eruptions of Sabancaya to calm down the mountain spirits; the
Mummy Juanita on Ampato may have been such a sacrifice, or one against a drought.
Historical activity Sabancaya is the most active or second most active volcano in Peru. A
sulfate aerosol spike in 1695 has been attributed to Sabancaya. Spanish chronicles mention probable eruptions in 1752 and 1784, which might have left layers of
tephra. After the 18th century, the volcano went dormant for about two hundred years during which only fumarolic activity was recorded, and the volcano was sometimes omitted from listings of active volcanoes. Beginning in 1981, signs of increased activity were noted. In late 1986 an increased
fumarolic activity heralded the onset of a new eruptive period, and satellite images observed the occurrence of black spots where the ice had melted or boiled away. This period reached a climax in May 1990, when an eruption with a
volcanic explosivity index of 2–3 occurred. This eruption threw ash to distances of from the summit and was accompanied by strong earthquake activity and the formation of
eruption columns that reached heights of . The eruption and further activity, through 1990, enlarged the summit crater and caused the formation of new rows of
fumaroles. Chemical analysis of the volcanic rocks suggests that this phase of volcanic activity was started by the injection of
mafic magma into the magma chamber. Ash fell on towns around the volcano, causing irritations at the eyes, throats and intestines, and buried pastures. This eruption displaced between 4,000 and 1,500 people in the region, and there was widespread concern about the volcano, livestock losses, and complaints about government inaction. The US
Volcano Disaster Assistance Program provided assistance. Ash fall from the eruption melted ice on the neighbouring Hualca Hualca, producing
mudflows, and may have caused unusual rainfall during the dry season. After the large 1990 eruption, the style of activity at Sabancaya changed towards a frequent occurrence of explosive eruptions with however low output, which threw ballistic blocks to distances of about from the summit crater and frequently produce
plumes; this pattern of activity is referred to as "
Vulcanian eruptions" and was accompanied by a decrease of the magma supply. Ash fall from these eruptions induced melting of the glaciers on Ampato volcano, exposing
Inca artefacts including the
Mummy Juanita. These explosive eruptions became less common over time (from paroxysms every 20–30 minutes to only 5–6 eruptions per day) and the proportional amount of fresh volcanic material increased at first; since 1997 discontinuous eruptions generate steam columns no higher than and ejected material is almost entirely
lithic. Satellite imagery has evidenced the occurrence of temperature anomalies on Sabancaya on the scale of , probably owing to fumarolic activity. In March and April 2013,
fumarolic activity and the occurrence of
seismic swarms increased after fifteen years of rest, leading to local infrastructure being damaged; an eruption occurred in August 2014 and blue and yellow gases were emitted between 2013 and 2015. This pulse of activity was accompanied by an increased release of , which was being emitted at a rate of in 2014. Ash was emitted by the volcano multiple times through 2014 and 2015, and there has been steady shallow seismic activity since 2013. The remote location of the volcano means that direct impacts on towns is rare, and no human casualties are known. A further increase of fumarolic activity was observed in 2016, when new fumaroles appeared and sulfur flux increased to sulfur dioxide. Ash eruptions have occurred since 6 November 2016, with an
eruption column high five days later. Since then, the volcano has been continuously active with numerous explosions every day, which produce
volcanic ash clouds that can rise to elevations of . A persistent gas plume lies above the volcano and repeated emissions of ash have happened, resulting in several alerts for the local population.
Lahars have been produced in some occasions, without reports of damage. A
lava dome began to grow in 2017 within the crater, with unsteady explosive activity and occasional seismic swarms, and was progressively destroyed in 2020. In 2020, a second lava dome formed in November but it was destroyed between December and February of that year. These lava domes were named after numbers in Quechua: for the first and for the second. The domes formed in 2021 and was destroyed in the same year, while existed during the winter of 2021-2022. In March and May 2023, formed and was destroyed during the later course of the year. Ash emissions and seismic activity associated with the eruption begun in 2016 is ongoing .
Seismicity Seismic monitoring of the volcano began in 1990, when the Geophysical Institute of Peru installed several permanent seismic stations. Several of them were impacted by ashfalls and thus did not record data through that period of activity. Several types of seismic activity occur at volcanoes, and examples of the various types have been found at Sabancaya: • "Type A" seismic signals, which are shallow ( deep) earthquakes produced by the fracturing of rock caused by magma or fluid movements. They are high frequency P and S waves • "Type B" seismic signals, which are formed at depths of less than as P and S waves but are otherwise similar to "Type A" signals. They too are formed by the fracturing of rock within the volcano. • Explosive seismicity is produced by volcanic explosions, and its properties vary strongly with the nature and traits of the explosion. • Long-period earthquakes are produced by
resonant movements of fluids inside the volcano (such seismicity produced by resonant movements is also known as "tornillos"). At Sabancaya, they frequently precede steam and vapour emissions. • Tremors are produced by numerous volcanic processes and occur during most volcanic eruptions. Causes are vibrations caused by eruptive activity and weak earthquakes. At Sabancaya they occur in various forms, including
harmonic,
monochromatic and
spasmodic. Seismic activity during the 2020s, 2010s and 1990s eruption period concentrated not under the volcano, but under Hualca Hualca north and Pampa Sepina northeast of the volcano. A strong earthquake in 1991, which caused a landslide that destroyed the village of Maca, might be linked to Sabancaya.
Hazards Sabancaya rises above the valleys of the Colca river and of some tributaries of the
Siguas river with about 35,000 people living in them. Sabancaya is particularly dangerous for the Colca river valley, north of the volcano; with the towns
Achoma,
Cabanaconde,
Chivay,
Ichupampa,
Lari,
Maca,
Madrigal,
Pinchollo,
Yanque and others lie in the valley; other cities potentially endangered by Sabancaya include
Camaná on the
Pacific Ocean. About 30,000 people live within from the volcano. On the slopes of the volcano are the
Majes-Siguas canal system and the major
power line that delivers electricity from the ; all of these could be threatened in an eruption. In the case of a major
Plinian eruption, at least 60,000 to 70,000 people would be threatened. Rock fall would affect the area close to the summit domes, as would
pyroclastic flows; these would be a further hazard to the valleys draining the volcano.
Gigantic landslides from partial collapses of the volcanic cones are considered a low-probability hazard. The presence of an ice cap is an additional source of danger, as its melting during a volcanic eruption could form hazardous lahars, although the small volume of the ice cap limits their damage potential. The ice caps on Ampato and Hualca Hualca could also melt, increasing the hazard. The
Majes River and
Sihuasi River drainages would be threatened by such mudflows in case of an eruption; the former is the site of the
Majes-Siguas irrigation project, the most important in southern Peru. Other dangers from eruptions at Sabancaya are
tephra fallout, which can impact the health of people, animals and plants more than away; and lava flows, which however are not much of a threat to humans owing to their slow speed. Aside from the direct threat of eruptions, Sabancaya also contributes to air pollution in the Colca valley, which can damage plants and cause respiratory distress in animals and humans. Ash clouds from Sabancaya frequently impede
air travel over the region; the volcano is one of the most frequent causes of volcanic ash-related air traffic advisories in the world.
Wind can blow ash back in the air, thus producing ash falls even when the volcano is not erupting.
Monitoring Sabancaya and Ubinas were the first Peruvian volcanoes to be studied scientifically. Volcano monitoring in Peru commenced after the 1986 eruption, with the Southern Volcano Observatory being created two years later and beginning its work at Sabancaya. The monitoring network around the volcano was expanded after its 2013 eruption. The Southern Volcano Observatory and the monitor Sabancaya with ash measuring equipment, gas measuring equipment,
GPS,
infrasound detectors,
seismometers,
surveillance cameras, and
telemetry units. The SVO also uses data from
satellites and
volcanic ash collectors. These data are published both in real-time online and in volcano activity bulletins.
Hazard maps and scenarios INGEMMET has published three
volcano hazard maps, which show where there are hazards from
volcanic ash,
mudflows and "multiple threats", respectively. According to the "multiple threats" map, the danger from
lava flows,
mudflows,
pyroclastic flows and
volcanic bombs is highest on the edifice itself and the valleys draining Ampato-Sabancaya to the east, south and west. A moderate hazard is found on Ampato-Sabancaya and downstream valleys, and a low hazard around the foot of Ampato-Sabancaya. Only a few houses are located within "multiple threats" hazard zones , but several bridges, canals, roads and the towns of Taya, Lluta and Huanca are within the mudflow hazard zone, and the volcanic ash hazard zone includes numerous villages. Together with Ubinas, Coropuna and Misti, Sabancaya is classified by as a "very high risk" volcano; in the case of Sabancaya because of its threat to the Majes-Siguas irrigation project. Scenarios of future eruptions range from
vulcanian eruptions over
effusive eruptions (no evidence of effusive eruptions during the past few centuries) and vulcanian-subplinian eruptions to the low-probability scenario of
Plinian eruptions. Scenarios of mudflow emission range from mudflows in the valleys draining Ampato and Sabancaya over to flows that extend from the volcano into surrounding towns. == Climate and vegetation ==