As of early 2024, CPEC is the most developed land corridor of the BRI. CPEC runs through twelve cities with over one million inhabitants and eighteen cities with populations over 100,000. According to China's premier,
Li Keqiang, Pakistan's development through the project might "wean the populace from
fundamentalism". CPEC is considered economically vital to Pakistan, helping to drive its economic growth. The Pakistani media and government have called CPEC investments a "game and fate changer" for the region, with both China and Pakistan aiming for the massive investment plan to transform Pakistan into a regional economic hub and further deepen the ties between the two countries. Approximately one year after the announcement of CPEC, Zhang Baozhong, chairman of China Overseas Port Holding Company, told
The Washington Post that his company planned to spend an additional $4.5 billion on roads, power, hotels, and other infrastructure for Gwadar's industrial zone, The
World Bank considers the poor availability of electricity to be a major constraint to both economic growth and investment in Pakistan. The impact of Chinese investments in the energy sector became evident by December 2017, when Pakistan achieved a surplus in electricity production. The Pakistani Federal Minister for Power Division,
Awais Leghari, announced the complete end of power cuts in 5,297 out of a total of 8,600 feeders. He also claimed that the country's electricity production had increased to 16,477 megawatts, which was 2,700 megawatts more than the demand. Pakistan's large textile industry has been severely impacted by prolonged power cuts, leading to the shutdown of nearly 20% of textile factories in
Faisalabad due to power shortages. The CPEC's "Early Harvest" projects are expected to address these power shortages by 2018, increasing Pakistan's power generation capacity by over 10,000 megawatts. Former Pakistan Prime Minister
Shaukat Aziz stated in May 2016 that the predicted economic growth from CPEC projects would help stabilize Pakistan's security situation. The
World Bank has also identified security concerns as a hindrance to sustained economic growth in Pakistan. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson
Hua Chunying, the corridor will "serve as a driver for connectivity between South Asia and East Asia." Mushahid Hussain, chairman of the Pakistan-China Institute, told
China Daily that the economic corridor "will play a crucial role in the regional integration of 'Greater South Asia', which includes China, Iran, Afghanistan, and stretches all the way to Myanmar."
The Guardian noted that "The Chinese are not just offering to build much-needed infrastructure but also to make Pakistan a key partner in its grand economic and strategic ambitions."
Moody's Investors Service has described the project as "credit positive" for Pakistan. In 2015, the agency acknowledged that while much of the project's key benefits would not materialize until 2017, it believed that some of the economic corridor's benefits would likely begin accruing even before then. The
Asian Development Bank stated, "CPEC will connect economic agents along a defined geography. It will provide a connection between economic nodes or hubs, centered on urban landscapes, where large amounts of economic resources and actors are concentrated. They link the supply and demand sides of markets." On 14 November 2016,
Hyatt Hotels Corporation announced plans to open four properties in Pakistan, in partnership with the
Bahria Town Group, citing CPEC investment as the reason behind the $600 million investment. On 12 March 2017, a consortium of Pakistani broker houses reported that Pakistan would end up paying $90 billion to
China over a span of 30 years, with annual average repayments of $3–4 billion per year after fiscal year 2020. The report further stated that CPEC-related transportation would earn Pakistan $400–500 million per annum and could increase Pakistani exports by 4.5% annually until fiscal year 2025.
Chinese economy CPEC has been a significant factor in helping China improve its position in global value chains. The importance of CPEC to China is reflected in its inclusion in China's 13th
five-year development plan. CPEC projects will provide China with an alternative route for energy supplies and a new trade route for
Western China. Pakistan stands to gain from infrastructure upgrades and a more reliable energy supply.
CPEC and the "Malacca dilemma" The
Straits of Malacca provide China with its shortest maritime route to Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Approximately 80% of its Middle Eastern energy imports also pass through the Straits of Malacca. As the world's largest oil importer,, energy security is a major concern for China, especially since current sea routes used for importing Middle Eastern oil are frequently patrolled by the United States Navy. Additionally, two-thirds of all Chinese maritime trade pass through the Strait. If China were to face hostile actions from the United States, energy imports through the Straits of Malacca could be disrupted, potentially threatening the Chinese economy—a scenario often referred to as the "
Malacca dilemma". The CPEC project aims to allow Chinese energy imports to bypass these contentious areas, offering an alternative route through the west and potentially reducing the likelihood of confrontation between the United States and China. However, there is evidence suggesting that pipelines from Gwadar to China would be very costly, face significant logistical challenges, including difficult terrain and potential terrorism, and would have minimal impact on China's overall energy security.
Access to western China The
CPEC Alignments will enhance connectivity to the restive
Xinjiang region, boosting its potential to attract both public and private investment. Beyond reducing China's reliance on the Sea of Malacca and South China Sea routes, CPEC will offer a shorter and more cost-effective route for energy imports from the Middle East. Currently, the sea route to China is approximately 12,000 kilometers long, while the distance from Gwadar Port to Xinjiang is about 3,000 kilometers, with an additional 3,500 kilometers from Xinjiang to China's eastern coast. Despite the signing of the QATT, its full potential was never realized, primarily due to inadequate infrastructure links between the four countries before the announcement of CPEC. During Afghan President
Ashraf Ghani's visit to India in April 2015, he stated, "We will not provide equal transit access to Central Asia for Pakistani trucks," unless the Pakistani government included India in the 2010
Afghanistan–Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement. The current Transit Trade Agreement allows Afghanistan to access the
Port of Karachi for export trade with India and permits Afghan goods to be transited to any border of Pakistan. However, it does not grant Afghan trucks the right to cross the
Wagah Border or allow Indian goods to be exported to Afghanistan through Pakistan. Due to ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, the Pakistani government was hesitant to include India in trade negotiations with Afghanistan, resulting in limited progress between the Afghan and Pakistani sides. In February 2016, the Pakistani government announced its intention to bypass Afghanistan entirely in its efforts to access Central Asia. The plan involved reviving the QATT to allow Central Asian states to reach Pakistani ports via Kashgar, rather than through Afghanistan, thus avoiding the need to rely on a
politically unstable Afghanistan as a transit corridor. In early March 2016, the Afghan government reportedly agreed to allow Pakistan to use Afghanistan as a corridor to Tajikistan, having dropped its previous demands for reciprocal access to India via Pakistan.
Alternate route to Central Asia Leaders of various Central Asian republics have expressed interest in linking their infrastructure networks to the CPEC project through China. During Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's visit to Kazakhstan in August 2015, Kazakh Prime Minister
Karim Massimov conveyed Kazakhstan's desire to connect its road network to CPEC. In November 2015, during
Tajikistan President
Emomali Rahmon's visit to Pakistan, he expressed his government's interest in joining the Quadrilateral Agreement on Traffic in Transit to use CPEC as a route for imports and exports to Tajikistan, bypassing Afghanistan. This request received political support from the Pakistani Prime Minister. Numerous land crossings already exist between Kazakhstan and China. The Chinese government has also announced plans to lay railway tracks from
Tashkent, Uzbekistan, towards Kyrgyzstan, with onward connections to China and Pakistan. Furthermore, the
Pamir Highway provides Tajikistan access to Kashgar via the
Kulma Pass. These connections complement the CPEC project by offering Central Asian states access to Pakistan's deepwater ports, effectively bypassing Afghanistan, which has been plagued by
civil war and political instability since the late 1970s.
Comparison to Chabahar Port In May 2016, Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi and Iranian President
Hassan Rouhani signed a series of twelve agreements in
Tehran. India agreed to refurbish one of Chabahar's ten existing berths and reconstruct another at the
Port of Chabahar. This upgrade aims to facilitate the export of Indian goods to Iran, with potential onward connections to Afghanistan and Central Asia. As of February 2017, the project has been delayed, with both Iran and India blaming each other for the hold-ups. A segment of the Indian media referred to it as "a counter to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor," although the total financial value of the projects has been noted to be significantly lower than that of CPEC. As part of the twelve memorandums of understanding signed by the Indian and Iranian delegations, according to the text released by India's
Ministry of External Affairs, India will extend a $150 million line of credit through the
Exim Bank of India. Additionally, India Ports Global signed a contract with Iran's Aria Banader to develop berths at the port, at a cost of $85 million over a period of 18 months. Under the agreement, India Ports Global will refurbish a 640-meter-long container handling facility and reconstruct a 600-meter-long berth at the port. Moreover, India's IRCON and Iran's Construction, Development of Transport and Infrastructure Company signed a
memorandum of understanding regarding the construction and financing of the Chabahar to Zahedan rail line, with a total cost estimated at $1.6 billion. India's Highways and Shipping Minister,
Nitin Gadkari, suggested that the
free trade zone in Chabahar has the potential to attract investments of over $15 billion in the future. However, he emphasized that such investments are dependent on Iran offering India natural gas at a rate of $1.50 per million
British Thermal Units—a price significantly lower than the $2.95 per million British Thermal Units currently offered by Iran. The two countries also signed a memorandum of understanding to explore the possibility of establishing an aluminum smelter at a cost of $2 billion, as well as a
urea processing facility in Chabahar, though these investments are also contingent upon Iran providing low-cost natural gas for their operation. India, Iran, and Afghanistan also signed an agreement aimed at simplifying transit procedures between the three countries. Bandar Abbas is also considered a crucial node on the
North–South Transport Corridor, which has been supported by India and Russia since 2002. Additionally, Indian goods can be imported and transported across Iran via
Bandar-e Emam Khomeyni, near the Iraqi border. Under the
Afghanistan–Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement, Afghan goods can be transported through Pakistan for export to India; however, Indian goods cannot be exported to Afghanistan via Pakistan. Once Chabahar is fully operational, Indian exporters will potentially be able to export goods to Afghanistan, a country with an annual
gross domestic product of approximately $60.6 billion. Following the agreement's signing, Iran's ambassador to Pakistan, Mehdi Honerdoost, mentioned that the deal was "not finished" and that Iran would be open to including both Pakistan and China in the project. He clarified that Chabahar Port was not intended to compete with Pakistan's
Gwadar Port, and noted that both Pakistan and China were invited to participate in the project before India, but according to Pakistani media, neither country expressed interest in joining. However, the Iranian ambassador eventually clarified that Iran does not view Chabahar as a project capable of rivaling CPEC, stating, "Iran is eager to join CPEC with its full capabilities, possibilities, and abilities." In July 2020, Pakistani media outlet
The News International reported that the Iranian government had removed India from a long-stalled rail project, opting instead to sign a comprehensive deal with China. This report was later refuted by the Iranian government, which clarified that India's investments were never connected to the railway project in the first place.
Environment Pakistan is already facing significant challenges from
climate change and global warming, with about 5,000 of its glaciers melting at an alarming rate. The country is also experiencing extreme weather patterns and seasonal shifts in recent years. The coal-based power plants under the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are not aligned with Pakistan's green policy. It is estimated that by 2030,
carbon dioxide emissions from CPEC projects will total 371 metric tonnes, with 56% of these emissions coming from the energy sector. CPEC also anticipates a daily commute of 7,000 trucks, potentially emitting 36.5 million tons of . Since 2021, under growing pressure due to being the world's largest polluter, China has shifted its focus from coal-based energy investments in Pakistan to
renewable energy. This shift aims to promote a more "green" image of CPEC. ==Security issues==