The World Bank's April 2024 update indicates that the growth rate for the Europe, Middle-East and African region, is expected to slightly increase to 4.6% in 2024, up from 4.4% in 2023. This underscores a diverse economic resilience against global pressures. Meanwhile,
global trade growth, which was minimal at 0.2% in 2023, is projected to improve to 2.3% in 2024, crucial for the region's export-oriented economies. However, private investment remains below
pre-pandemic levels due to higher debt levels and rising interest rates, signaling a cautious investment climate. The region faces significant challenges from both external factors, such as high core inflation and modest global trade recovery, and domestic issues like increased debt and political uncertainties, potentially hindering economic growth. Additionally, a hypothetical 1% decline in
GDP growth in the US or China could reduce GDP growth in other developing Europe, Middle-East and African economies by approximately 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. The increase in trade-distorting measures, which have tripled since 2019 among
G-20 countries, reflects a trend towards protective industrial policies, although other European, Middle-Eastern, and African countries, except for
the Big Four,
South Africa,
Russia,
Turkey and
Saudi Arabia, have been less involved in these measures. By 2026, the EMEA region has intensified its focus on "near-shoring" to enhance supply chain resilience against geopolitical volatility. Major European manufacturers have increasingly shifted production to hubs in Central and Eastern Europe as well as North Africa to shorten lead times and mitigate transport costs. In the technology sector, IT spending across EMEA is projected to grow by 7% in 2026, driven by a shift from AI experimentation to operational deployment at scale, particularly in industrial and enterprise applications. This trend is further supported by the expansion of regional logistics trackers that monitor the impact of policy shifts on international business investment. ==See also==