Agriculture In 2013, as part of a European Union (EU) member state, Scottish farmers received £583 million in subsidy payments from the EU under the
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Annual CAP payments are made to the UK, which then determines how much to allocate to each of the devolved administrations, including Scotland. In the last CAP agreement, farmers in the UK qualified for additional convergence payments because Scottish farmers received a lower average single farm payment per hectare, mainly due to the mountainous terrain in Scotland. Supporters of independence therefore believed that an independent Scotland would receive greater
agricultural subsidies as an independent state.
Alistair Carmichael, the Secretary of State for Scotland, said in January 2014 that it would make sense for Scotland to be in the CTA, but it would have to operate similar immigration policies to the rest of the UK. The Conservative MP
Richard Bacon said there would be "no reason" for border controls to be implemented.
Childcare In the white paper ''Scotland's Future'', the Scottish government pledged to expand childcare provision in an independent Scotland. The paper stated that this policy would cost £700 million, but that this would be financed by increased tax revenue from an additional 100,000 women returning to work. A report by the Scottish Parliament Information Centre questioned the economic benefit of the policy, pointing out that there were only 64,000 mothers of children aged between 1 and 5 who were economically inactive. A spokesman for Salmond said that the estimated total 104,000 women would enter the workforce over a longer period, as future generations of mothers would also be able to work, stating: "The key point about the policy is that it doesn't happen on one day or one year and then cease." The Scottish government also proposed that anyone with a Scottish parent or grandparent would be able to apply for registration as a Scottish citizen, and any foreign national living in Scotland legally, or who had lived in Scotland for at least 10 years at any time and had an ongoing connection to Scotland, should be able to apply for naturalisation as a Scottish citizen. An analysis paper published by the UK government in January 2014 stated that it was likely that Scots would be able to hold dual citizenship; however, the duality was considered for all other countries, not specifically to the rest of the UK. The possibility of holding dual UK–Scotland citizenships could be subject to the "proof of affinity".
Conspiracy theories Supporters of Scottish independence promulgated conspiracy theories, including that
MI5, the British government, and other intelligence agencies were pretending to be Scottish nationalists online, pretending to be "
cybernats" (a derogatory term for supporters of Scottish nationalism online, especially
trolls), or engaging in
ballot tampering or other forms of
vote fraud. A
YouGov poll in early September showed 25 per cent of the electorate believed MI5 was working with the British government to block independence, with many voters so fearful that the marks made by the pencils provided in polling stations would be tampered with that they brought their own pens.
Defence Budget The SNP said that there was a defence underspend of 'at least £7.4 billion' between 2002 and 2012 in Scotland and that independence would allow the Scottish government to correct this imbalance. In its white paper, the Scottish government planned that an independent Scotland would have a total of 15,000 regular and 5,000 reserve personnel across land, air and maritime forces by 2026. In July 2013, the SNP proposed that there would be a £2.5 billion annual military budget in an independent Scotland. The House of Commons Defence Select Committee said that the £2.5bn budget was too low.
Andrew Murrison, UK
Minister for International Security Strategy agreed and said it was 'risible' for the SNP to suggest it could create an independent force by 'salami-slicing' from current British armed forces units. The House of Commons defence committee also stated that Scottish independence would have a negative effect on its industry, while the UK government said it would not be willing to build warships in a foreign country. Geoff Searle, the director of BAE Systems' Type 26 Global Combat Ship programme, said in June 2014 that the company had no alternative plan for shipbuilding, but this position was later revised by the Chairman of BAE, who stated that they could resume shipbuilding in the English city of
Portsmouth if an independent Scotland was established. The chief executive of
Thales, one of Britain's largest defence suppliers, said that if Scotland became independent that this might raise questions about continued investment from his firm. The
Royal United Services Institute said in 2012 that an independent Scotland could set up a Scottish Defence Force, comparable in size and strength to those of other small European states like Denmark, Norway, and Ireland, at an annual cost of £1.8 billion. Dorcha Lee, a former colonel in the Irish Army, said that Scotland could eschew forming an army based on inherited resources from the British Army and instead follow an Irish model of a limited self-defence force.
Nuclear weapons -armed
ballistic missile submarine leaving its base in the
Firth of Clyde At the time of the referendum, the
Trident nuclear missile system was based at
Coulport weapons depot and naval base of
Faslane in the
Firth of Clyde area. The SNP objected to having nuclear weapons on Scottish territory, but British military leaders said that there was no alternative site for the missiles. In April 2014, several British military leaders co-signed a letter stating that forcing Trident to leave Scottish waters would place the
UK nuclear deterrent in jeopardy.
Nowhere to Go, a report by
Scottish CND, concluded that the removal of Trident from Scotland would force unilateral nuclear disarmament by the United Kingdom, as the weapons would have no viable alternative base. A report by the Royal United Services Institute said that relocating Trident would be 'very difficult, but not impossible' and estimated it would take about 10 years and create an additional cost of around £3 billion. According to a seminar hosted by the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, that the
Royal Navy would have to consider a range of alternatives, including disarmament. A 2013
Scotland Institute report suggested a future Scottish government could be convinced to lease the Faslane nuclear base to the rest of the UK, in order to maintain good diplomatic relations and expedite
NATO entry negotiations.
NATO membership at the time of the referendum, member states shown in dark blue SNP policy had historically been that an independent Scotland should not seek to obtain membership in NATO, but this was dropped after a vote by party members in 2012. MSPs
John Finnie and
Jean Urquhart resigned from the SNP over this policy change. The Scottish Green Party and Scottish Socialist Party continued their opposition to NATO membership. The SNP position that Trident nuclear weapons should be removed from Scotland but that it should hold NATO membership was criticised by
Willie Rennie, leader of the
Scottish Liberal Democrats, and
Patrick Harvie, co-convenor of the Scottish Green Party.
Alex Salmond said it would be 'perfectly feasible' to join NATO while maintaining an anti-nuclear stance and that Scotland would pursue NATO membership only 'subject to an agreement that Scotland will not host nuclear weapons and NATO continues to respect the right of members to only take part in UN sanctioned operations'. In 2013, Malcolm Chalmers of the Royal United Services Institute said that 'pragmatists' in the SNP accepted that NATO membership would likely involve a long-term basing deal, enabling the UK to keep Trident on the Clyde. The former
Secretary General of NATO and Scottish Labour peer
Lord Robertson said in 2013 that 'either the SNP accept the central nuclear role of NATO ... or they reject the nuclear role of NATO and ensure that a separate Scottish state stays out of the world's most successful defence alliance.' General
Richard Shirreff criticised SNP defence proposals and questioned whether other NATO members would accept an independent Scotland that rejected the principle of nuclear deterrence. This was disputed by
Mariot Leslie, a former UK permanent representative to NATO, who said that NATO would not want to disrupt its arrangements by excluding Scotland.
Intelligence A UK government paper on security said that
Police Scotland would lose access to the UK intelligence apparatus, including
MI5,
SIS, and
GCHQ, In 2013, Allan Burnett, former head of intelligence with
Strathclyde Police and Scotland's counter-terrorism coordinator until 2010, said that 'an independent Scotland would face less of a threat, intelligence institutions will be readily created, and allies will remain allies'. Peter Jackson, professor of security at the
University of Glasgow, agreed that Police Scotland's
Special Branch could form a 'suitable nucleus' of a Scottish equivalent of MI5 and that Scotland could forego creating an equivalent of
MI6, instead 'relying on pooled intelligence or diplomatic open sources' like Canada or the
Nordic countries.
Baroness Ramsay, a Labour peer and former case officer with MI6, said that the Scottish government's stance on intelligence was 'extremely naïve' and that it was "not going to be as simple as they think". and that creating an external intelligence agency would remain an option. because the UK was a
unitary state without a codified constitution. The SNP also called the unelected
House of Lords an 'affront to democracy'. The 'democratic deficit' label has sometimes been used to refer to the period between the 1979 and 1997 UK general elections, during which the Labour Party held a majority of Scottish seats but the Conservative Party governed the whole of the UK. Salmond said in September 2013 that instances such as this amounted to a lack of democracy, and that 'people who live and work in Scotland are the people most likely to make the right choices for Scotland'. In January 2012, Patrick Harvie said: 'Greens have a vision of a more radical democracy in Scotland, with far greater levels of discussion and decision making at community level.' The Scottish Government intended that an independent Scotland should have a written constitution that 'expresses our values, embeds the rights of our citizens and sets out clearly how our institutions of state interact with each other and serve the people'.
Menzies Campbell wrote in April 2014 that any democratic deficit had been addressed by creating the devolved Scottish Parliament, and that 'Scotland and the Scottish have enjoyed influence beyond our size or reasonable expectation' within the British government and the wider political system. Conservative MP
Daniel Kawczynski said in 2009 that the UK's
asymmetric devolution had created a democratic deficit for England. This was commonly known as the
West Lothian question, which cited the anomaly whereby English MPs could not vote on affairs devolved to Scotland but Scottish MPs could vote on the equivalent subjects in England. Kawczynski also pointed out that the average number of voters in a parliamentary constituency was larger in England than in Scotland. On the morning before a televised debate between
Alex Salmond and
Alistair Darling,
Better Together published a joint statement. Co-signed by the three main UK party leaders (
David Cameron,
Ed Miliband and
Nick Clegg), it committed to granting Scotland increased power over domestic taxes and parts of the social security system.
Boris Johnson, the Conservative
mayor of London, said he opposed giving the Scottish Parliament greater fiscal powers. During the second televised debate, Salmond challenged Darling to specify which additional powers that could help create greater employment in Scotland would be granted if there was a 'no' vote. During a visit to Scotland later that week,
David Cameron promised more powers 'soon'. He proposed that work on a new Scotland Act would begin immediately after the referendum, resulting in the publication of a white paper by the end of November 2014.
Economy , Scotland's capital city and
financial centre, the fourth largest financial hub in Europe A principal issue in the referendum was the economy.
Weir Group, one of the largest private companies based in Scotland, commissioned a study by Oxford Economics into the potential economic effects of Scottish independence. It found that Weir would pay more corporation tax, despite the Scottish government's proposal to cut the rate of corporation tax, due to it no longer being able to offset losses in Scotland against profits in the rest of the UK. In February 2014, the
Financial Times noted that Scotland's per capita GDP was bigger than that of France when a geographic share of oil and gas was taken into account, and still bigger than that of Italy when it was not. As of April 2014, Scotland had a similar rate of unemployment to the UK average (6.6%) and a lower fiscal deficit (including as a percentage of GDP). Scotland performed better than the UK average in securing new Foreign Direct Investment in 2012–13 (measured by the number of projects), although not as well as
Wales or
Northern Ireland. GDP growth during 2013 was lower in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, although this was partly due to an industrial dispute at the
Grangemouth Refinery.
Deutsche Bank issued a report in the week before the referendum in which David Folkerts-Landau, the bank's chief economist, concluded: 'While it may sound simple and costless for a nation to exit a 300-year-old union, nothing could be further from the truth'. Folkerts-Landau said the economic prospects after a 'yes' vote were 'incomprehensible', and cited
Winston Churchill's 1925
Gold Standard decision and the actions of America's
Federal Reserve that triggered the
Great Depression of the 1930s as mistakes of a similar magnitude. The Swiss financial services company
UBS supported Deutsche Bank's position. Supporters of independence said that Scotland had not realised its full economic potential because it was subject to the same economic policy as the rest of the UK. In 2013, the Jimmy Reid Foundation published a report stating that UK economic policy had become 'overwhelmingly geared to helping London, meaning Scotland and other UK regions suffer from being denied the specific, local policies they need'. Later in January 2014, Colin Fox said that Scotland is 'penalised by an economic model biased towards the South East of England'.
Banking system , the country's oldest bank and only institution created by the pre–union
Parliament of Scotland to remain in operation The UK Treasury issued a report on 20 May 2013 which said that Scotland's banking systems would be too big to ensure depositor compensation in the event of a bank failure. Economists including Andrew Hughes Hallett, Professor of Economics at
St Andrews University, rejected the idea that Scotland would have to underwrite these liabilities alone. He observed that banks operating in more than one country can be given a joint bailout by multiple governments. In this way, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands collectively bailed out Fortis Bank and the Dexia Bank.
Robert Peston reported in March 2014 that RBS and
Lloyds Banking Group might be forced to relocate their head offices from Edinburgh to London in case of Scottish independence, due to a European law brought in after the 1991 collapse of the
Bank of Credit and Commerce International. Financial groups including RBS,
Lloyds,
Clydesdale Bank,
TSB, and
Tesco Bank later announced that they planned to move their registered headquarters from Scotland to England if Scotland voted for independence, although most indicated that they had no immediate intention to transfer any jobs.
Currency Another major economic issue was the currency that an independent Scotland would use. The principal options were to establish an independent Scottish currency, join the
euro, or retain the
pound sterling Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, the SNP's policy was that an independent Scotland should adopt the euro, though this was relegated to a long-term rather than short-term goal by the party's 2009 conference. There was disagreement over whether Scotland would be required to join the euro if it became an EU member state in its own right. All new members are required to commit to joining the single currency, but they must first be party to
ERM II for two years. The Scottish government argued that this was a
de facto opt-out from the euro, because EU member states are not obliged to join ERM II. For example, the people of
Sweden rejected adopting the euro in a
2003 referendum and its government subsequently refused to enter ERM II. The SNP favoured continued use of sterling in an independent Scotland through a formal currency union with the UK, with the
Bank of England setting its interest rates and monetary policy and acting as its central bank. The white paper ''Scotland's Future'' identified five key reasons that a currency union 'would be in both Scotland and the UK's interests immediately post-independence': Scotland's main trading partner is the UK (two-thirds of exports in 2011); 'companies operating in Scotland and the UK [...have] complex cross-border supply chains'; there is high labour mobility; 'on key measurements of an optimal currency area, the Scottish and UK economies score well'; and short-term economic trends in the UK and Scotland have 'a relatively high degree of synchronicity'. Former Prime Minister Sir
John Major rejected the idea of a currency union, saying it would require the UK to underwrite Scottish debt. Former Prime Minister
Gordon Brown said the SNP proposal would create a 'colonial relationship' between Scotland and Westminster. Welsh First Minister
Carwyn Jones said in November 2013 that he would seek a veto on a currency union between Scotland and the rest of the UK. Yes Scotland said that a currency union would benefit both Scotland and the rest of the UK, as Scotland's exports would boost the
balance of payments, and consequently strengthen the exchange rate of sterling. Meanwhile, UK economists and financial experts said the effect on the balance of payments and the exchange rate would be 'largely neutral'. Sterling fell by almost one cent against the US dollar in a day early in September 2014, due to an opinion poll showing a swing towards the Yes campaign. The
Financial Times reported a few days later that 'Asset managers, investors and pension savers are moving billions of pounds out of Scotland' because of fears that Scotland would leave the UK. The newspaper also reported that '"exit clauses" are being inserted into commercial property contracts in Scotland to allow buyers to scrap deals or renegotiate prices if voters opt for independence'.
Scottish Labour leader
Johann Lamont said that any additional transaction costs would fall largely on Scottish companies, costing businesses in Scotland 11 times more than those in England. The
Institute of Directors said that any new transaction costs would 'pale in comparison to the financial danger of entering an unstable currency union'. Angus Armstrong of the
National Institute of Economic and Social Research wrote that the implicit constraints on its economic policy would be more restrictive than the explicit ones it faced as part of the UK. Salmond said in February 2014 that an independent Scotland in a currency union would retain tax and spending powers. Gavin McCrone, former chief economic adviser to the Scottish Office, said that Scotland's retention of the pound would be pragmatic initially, but problematic thereafter if a Scottish government wished to implement independent policies, and warned that keeping the pound could lead to the relocation of Scottish banks to London. The UK
Chancellor George Osborne, as well as equivalent post-holders in the two other main UK political parties, rejected the idea of a formal currency union with an independent Scotland in February 2014. Shadow Chancellor
Ed Balls said the SNP's proposals for a currency union were 'economically incoherent' and that any currency option for an independent Scotland would be 'less advantageous than what we have across the UK today'. After the three main UK political parties ruled out a formal currency union, the
Adam Smith Institute said that the economies of Panama, Ecuador, and El Salvador 'demonstrate that the informal use of another country's currency can foster a healthy financial system and economy'. Salmond disputed this, restating his belief that a sterling currency union would be formed and pledging to create the necessary financial institutions. The Scottish Green Party said that keeping sterling as 'a short term transitional arrangement' should not be ruled out, but also that the Scottish Government should 'keep an open mind about moving towards an independent currency'. In early 2013, the
Jimmy Reid Foundation described retention of the pound as a good transitional arrangement, but recommended the eventual establishment of an independent Scottish currency to 'insulate' Scotland from the UK's 'economic instability'. Other proponents of an independent Scottish currency included Yes Scotland chairman
Dennis Canavan and former SNP deputy leader
Jim Sillars. On 9 September 2014,
Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, said that a currency union between an independent Scotland and the remainder of the UK would be 'incompatible with sovereignty'. He added that cross-border ties on tax, spending and banking rules are a prerequisite: 'You only have to look across the continent to look at what happens if you don't have those components in place ... You need tax, revenues and spending flowing across those borders to help equalise, to an extent, some of the inevitable differences [across the union].' A spokesperson for the SNP's finance minister said: 'successful independent countries such as France, Germany, Finland and Austria all share a currency – and they are in charge of 100% of their tax revenues, as an independent Scotland would be. At present under devolution, Scotland controls only 7% of our revenues.' If an allocation of
North Sea oil revenue based on geography was included, Scotland also produced more per capita tax revenue than the UK average in the years immediately preceding the referendum. The
Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland report for 2012/13 found that North Sea oil revenue had fallen by 41.5% and that Scotland's public spending deficit had increased from £4.6 billion to £8.6 billion. In 2012, the Scottish Government's Finance Secretary John Swinney prepared a confidential cabinet briefing paper on the financial impact of Scottish independence. The report warned that an independent Scotland would face public spending cuts, lower pensions and welfare spending, and high levels of debt. The paper indicated that an independent Scotland would face a significant budget deficit of £28 billion, and would inherit a higher proportion of the UK national debt than ministers had publicly acknowledged, with debt interest payments potentially costing taxpayers in Scotland £5.2 billion in 2016–17. The report warned that Scotland's public finances would be heavily dependent on volatile and declining oil revenues, and suggested that the affordability of the state pension in an independent Scotland would be at risk. The report further warned that the SNP's plans for an oil fund under independence would "require some downward revision in current spending." Swinney's cabinet paper was kept secret before being leaked to the press in 2013, a year after it was drafted.
Alistair Darling, the leader of the
Better Together campaign opposed to Scottish independence, described the leaked report as a "hammer blow" to the SNP's economic credibility. A Scottish Government spokesman insisted that the report's findings had been "overtaken by events". In May 2014, the UK government published an analysis identifying a '
Union dividend' of £1,400 per year for each person in Scotland, mainly due to the higher level of public spending. The Scottish government disputed this analysis, saying that each Scot would be £1,000 better off per year under independence by 2030. In its analysis, the UK government also estimated setup costs of £1.5 billion (1% of GDP) for establishing an independent state, or possibly £2.7 billion (180 public bodies costing £15 million each). The Treasury said that their main figure (£1.5 billion) was based on estimates by Robert Young of
Western University. Two of the main unionist parties in Scotland called on the SNP to publish their own estimate of the setup costs of an independent state, Dunleavy estimated immediate setup costs of £200 million in a report commissioned by
The Sunday Post, with 'total transition costs' of between £600 million and £1,500 million in the first 10 years of independence. The
credit rating that an independent Scotland would merit also became a subject of debate. The credit-rating agency
Fitch said in 2012 that it could not give an opinion on what rating Scotland would have, because Scottish finances would largely depend on the result of negotiations between the UK and Scotland and specifically the division of UK assets and liabilities. Research published by
Moody's in May 2014 said that an independent Scotland would be given an A rating, comparable with Poland, the Czech Republic and Mexico.
Energy Energy market in the
North Sea, oil production is centred in the waters off the Scottish northeast coast The UK government controlled most energy issues, although control over planning laws had allowed the Scottish government to prevent the construction of new nuclear power stations in Scotland. The second largest supplier of energy in the UK,
SSE plc, believed that a single market would be the most likely outcome under independence, although it would require negotiations that may have led to changes to the existing system. Labour MP
Caroline Flint said that independence would mean higher energy bills in Scotland, as its customers would have to pay more to support
renewable energy in Scotland, which represented one-third of the UK total. Euan Phimister said that bills were likely to increase across the whole of Great Britain because renewable schemes and new nuclear power stations in England were receiving higher subsidies than the power plants which were due for closure due to environmental regulations.
North Sea oil Approximately 90% of the United Kingdom's
North Sea oil fields were located in
Scottish territorial waters. The tax revenue generated from an offshore site was not counted within the nation or region nearest to it, but was instead allocated to the
UK Continental Shelf. The revenue from North Sea oil was used to support current expenditure, and the UK did not create a
sovereign oil fund (as in Norway). The SNP believed that a portion of the revenues should have been invested in a sovereign oil fund. The Scottish government, citing industry body Oil and Gas UK, estimated in ''Scotland's Future'' that there were 24 billion
barrels of oil equivalent still to be extracted.
Sir Ian Wood, founder of oil services company
Wood Group, said in August 2014 that he believed there were between 15 and 16.5 billion boe and that the impact from declining production would be felt by 2030.
European Union The SNP advocated that an independent Scotland should become a full member state of the European Union (EU) with some exemptions, such as not having to adopt the euro. There was debate over whether Scotland would be required to reapply for membership and whether it could retain the UK's opt-outs. The European Commission (EC) offered to provide an opinion to an existing member state on the matter, but the UK government confirmed it would not seek this advice, as it did not want to negotiate the terms of independence in advance of the referendum. There was no precedent for an EU member state dividing into two sovereign countries after joining the EU. Supporters of independence stated that an independent Scotland would become an EU member by treaty amendment under Article 48 of the EU treaties. Opponents said that this would not be possible and that an independent Scotland would need to apply for EU membership under Article 49, which would require ratification by each member state. In March 2014,
Christina McKelvie, Convener of the European and External Relations
Committee of the Scottish Parliament, asked
Viviane Reding, Vice-President of the European Commission, whether Article 48 would apply. Reding replied that EU treaties would no longer apply to a territory that secedes from a member state.
José Manuel Barroso,
president of the European Commission, said earlier that an independent Scotland would have to apply for EU membership, while the rest of the UK would continue to be a member. In 2014, he reiterated that for Scotland to join the EU would be 'extremely difficult, if not impossible'. Former prime minister Sir
John Major suggested in November 2013 that Scotland would need to reapply for EU membership, but that this would mean overcoming opposition to separatism among other member states. The
Independent reported that Spain could block Scottish membership of the EU, amid fears of repercussions with separatist movements in
Catalonia and the
Basque Country: in November 2013 Spanish Prime Minister
Mariano Rajoy said: 'I know for sure that a region that would separate from a member state of the European Union would remain outside the European Union and that should be known by the Scots and the rest of the European citizens.' He also said that an independent Scotland would become a 'third country' outside the EU and would require the consent of all 28 EU states to rejoin the EU, but that he would not seek to block its entry. Spain's European Affairs minister reiterated their position two days before the referendum. ,
José Manuel Barroso, pictured with First Minister Alex Salmond in 2009, said it would be "extremely difficult" for an independent Scotland to join the European Union. Sir David Edward, a former European Court judge, said that the EU institutions and member states would be 'obliged' to start negotiations before independence took effect to decide the future relationship. Graham Avery, the EC's honorary director-general, agreed with Edward. Avery wrote a report, published by the European Policy Centre, which said that EU leaders would probably allow Scotland to be part of the EU because of the legal and practical difficulties that would arise from excluding it. In a research paper, Professor Sionaidh Douglas-Scott of Oxford University wrote that the EU law normally takes a 'pragmatic and purposive approach' to issues not already provided for by existing treaties. Research published by the Economic and Social Research Council in August 2014 concluded that it was unlikely that an independent Scotland would be cut off from the rights and obligations of EU membership for any period of time, even if Scotland was not formally a member state of the EU from its date of independence. In January 2013, the Republic of Ireland's
Minister of European Affairs,
Lucinda Creighton, said that if Scotland were to become independent, it 'would have to apply for membership and that can be a lengthy process'. She later clarified those remarks, writing that she 'certainly did not at any stage suggest that Scotland could, should or would be thrown out of the EU'. In May 2013, Roland Vaubel, an
Alternative for Germany adviser, published a paper stating that Scotland would remain a member of the EU upon independence, and suggested there would need to be negotiations between the British and Scottish governments on sharing 'the rights and obligations of the predecessor state'. He also said that Barroso's comments on the legal position had 'no basis in the European treaties'.
Future status of the United Kingdom in the European Union In January 2013,
David Cameron committed the
Conservative Party to a referendum before the end of 2017 on UK membership of the EU if they won the
2015 general election. Legislation for an in/out EU referendum was approved by the House of Commons in November 2013. Studies showed some divergence in attitudes to the EU in Scotland and the rest of the UK. Although a Scottish government review based on survey data between 1999 and 2005 found that people in Scotland reported "broadly similar Eurosceptic views as people in Britain as a whole", Ipsos MORI noted in February 2013 that while 58% of voters in Scotland supported holding a referendum on EU membership, a majority also said they would vote to remain in the bloc. In contrast, there was a majority for withdrawal in England. Yes Scotland said that the UK government plans for an EU referendum had caused "economic uncertainty" for Scotland. During a CBI Scotland event attended by Cameron, businessman
Michael Rake criticised him for creating uncertainty about EU membership. Some commentators suggested that the
UK leaving the EU could undermine the case for Scottish independence, since free trade, freedom of movement and the absence of border controls between Scotland and England could no longer be assumed.
Health care Responsibility for most aspects of
health care was devolved to the Scottish Parliament when it was established in 1999.
NHS Scotland was operationally independent of the NHS in the rest of the United Kingdom since the formation of the NHS in 1948. Supporters of independence argued that independence was needed because possible reductions in the NHS budget in England would result in reduced funding for Scotland, which would make it difficult to maintain the existing service. In May 2014, about 100 medical workers, including surgeons, consultant doctors, GPs, pharmacists, dentists, hospital porters and janitors joined a pro-independence campaign group called "NHS for Yes". Its co-founder described health care in Scotland as "a shining example of self-government for Scotland demonstrably being far better than Westminster government" and said independence would "protect [NHS Scotland] from future Westminster funding cuts, and the damaging impact of privatisation south of the border". In contrast, opponents argued that a subsequent drop in funding to an independent Scottish Government would have a significantly larger effect upon the budget. Concerns were also raised about the impact on the medical research sector in Scotland from the loss of UK wide research funding. Two days before the referendum, papers indicating "a funding gap of £400–£450m in the next two financial years, 2015–17", for Scotland's NHS, resulting from Scottish government policies, were leaked to the media. A Scottish government spokesperson commented that the papers were from "part of the regular discussions among NHS leaders to plan for NHS Scotland's future". Vote No Borders, a unionist campaign group, ran a cinema advert which claimed that Scots would find it more difficult to obtain treatment at the
Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH), a London facility which provided specialist care for children.
International relations The white paper on independence proposed that an independent Scotland would open around 100 embassies around the world. Former Prime Minister
John Major suggested that the UK could lose its permanent seat at the Security Council if Scotland became independent.
Monarchy Forming a republic was favoured by some pro-independence political parties and organisations, including the
Scottish Green Party and the
Scottish Socialist Party. The SNP favoured an independent Scotland continuing to recognise
Elizabeth II as Queen of Scotland.
Christine Grahame MSP said she believed that party policy was to hold a referendum on the matter, due to a 1997 SNP conference resolution. Some media reports suggested that the announcement on 8 September of the pregnancy of the
Duchess of Cambridge with
her second child would help
pro-union sentiment. The Queen's official position on Scottish independence was neutral. Just prior to the referendum, Elizabeth II said in a private conversation that she hoped people would "think very carefully about the future".
Pensions UK State Pensions were managed by the UK government, paying £113.10 per week to a single person who is of
state pension age in the 2013/14 tax year. The state pension age for men was 65, but this was due to rise to 66 in 2020 and 67 by 2028. The ''Scotland's Future'' white paper pledged to maintain a state pension at a similar rate to the UK. Former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown said in April 2014 that Scotland had an above-average share of the public-sector pension bill and concluded that pensions would be protected by sharing risks and resources within the UK. UK government pensions minister
Steve Webb said in May 2014 that Scots would be entitled to the current levels of state pension after independence because they had accumulated rights within the existing system. Webb went on to say that there would need to be negotiations between the UK and Scotland as to how these pensions would be paid. The EC decided in March 2014 not to relax these regulations, which require cross-border schemes to be fully funded.
Sport , held less than two months prior to the referendum. Scotland previously hosted the Games in 1970 and 1986 Scotland hosted the
2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow, less than two months before the referendum. The Scottish team won a record number of gold medals, which the writer Alan Bisset said would help give voters more belief and confidence. Former Labour first minister
Henry McLeish published a report in May 2014 that found no obvious barriers to an independent Scotland competing in the
2016 Summer Olympics. McLeish said that some athletes, particularly those in team sports, may choose to compete for the existing Great Britain team rather than Scotland, as they would be nationals of both states.
Gordon Brown pointed to the
2012 medal count for Great Britain, saying that it showed the success of the union. Scottish athletes were involved in 13 of the 65 medals won by Great Britain in 2012, but only three of those were won without assistance by athletes from other parts of the UK. Sir
Chris Hoy said in May 2013 that it would "take time" for Scottish athletes to "establish themselves in a new training environment", and indicated that the good performance of Scottish athletes in the Great Britain team would not automatically translate into that of an independent Scotland team.
Status of Northern and Western Isles The prospect of an independent Scotland raised questions about the future of the
Northern Isles (
Orkney and
Shetland) and the
Western Isles, island groups off the Scottish mainland. Some islanders called for separate referendums to be held in the islands on 25 September 2014, one week after the Scottish referendum. In March 2014, the Scottish Parliament published an
online petition it had received calling for such referendums, which was supported by Shetland MSP
Tavish Scott. The proposed referendums would have asked islanders to choose from three options: that the island group should become an independent country; that it should remain in Scotland; or that (in the event of Scottish independence) it should remain in the UK. The third option would have implemented a conditional promise made in 2012 by an SNP spokesperson, who said that Orkney and Shetland could remain in the United Kingdom if their "drive for self-determination" was strong enough. Politicians in the three island groups referred to the Scottish referendum as the most important event in their political history "since the inception of the island councils in 1975". In a meeting of the island councils in March 2013, leaders of the three territories discussed their future in the event of Scottish independence. Steven Heddle, Orkney's council leader, described pursuing Crown Dependency status as the least likely option, as it would threaten funding from the EU, which was essential for local farmers. In July 2013, the Scottish government made the
Lerwick Declaration, indicating an interest in devolving power to Scotland's islands. By November, it had committed to devolving further powers to Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles in the event of independence. Steven Heddle called for legislation to that effect to be introduced regardless of the referendum result. A day before the referendum
Alistair Carmichael, the MP for Orkney and Shetland, and then-
Secretary of State for Scotland, suggested that if Shetland were to vote strongly against independence but the Scottish national vote was narrowly in favour, a discussion should be had about Shetland becoming a self-governing crown dependency outside of independent Scotland, similar to the
Isle of Man. He stated that he did not want such circumstances to arise, "and the best way to avoid this was to vote no in the referendum".
Universities Scientific research In 2012–13, Scottish universities received 13.1% of
Research Councils UK funding. Alan Trench of
University College London said that Scottish universities had received a "hugely disproportionate" level of funding and would no longer be able to access it following independence. Willie Rennie, leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, suggested that independence would mean Scottish universities losing £210m in research funding. The Institute of Physics in Scotland warned that access to international facilities such as the
CERN Large Hadron Collider, the
European Space Agency, and
European Southern Observatory could require renegotiation by the Scottish government. The Scottish government's education secretary,
Michael Russell, said that Scotland's universities had a "global reputation" that would continue to attract investment after independence. In September 2013, the principal of the
University of Aberdeen said that Scottish universities could continue to access UK research funding through a "single research area" that crossed both nations' boundaries. David Bell, professor of economics at the
University of Stirling, said that cross-border collaboration might continue, but Scottish universities could still lose their financial advantage. Roger Cook of the Scotland Institute pointed out that although Scottish universities had received a higher share of Research Councils funding, they were much less dependent on this as a source of funding than their counterparts in England. Professors from Scotland's five medical schools wrote an open letter warning that independence would mean Scotland's researcher base being "denied its present ability to win proportionately more grant funding". Questions were asked whether Scotland, as an economy of a smaller size than the UK, would still support the same level of research activity, and what additional efforts might be required to establish a system of research councils "north of the border". Jo Shaw, Salvesen chair of European institutions at the
University of Edinburgh, noted that in smaller states, relationships between universities and research funders became "cosy", and led to a "corporatist" approach.
Student funding At the time of the referendum, Students domiciled in Scotland did not pay tuition fees. Students domiciled in the rest of the UK were charged fees of up to £9,000 per annum by Scottish universities, but those from other EU member states were not charged fees due to EU law. If Scotland had become an independent state, students from the rest of the UK would have been in the same position as students from the rest of the EU. The Law Society of Scotland concurred. A report by a House of Commons select committee stated that it would cost an independent Scottish government £150 million to provide free tuition to students from the rest of the UK. A group of academics campaigning for independence expressed concern that the present arrangements would not continue if Scotland stayed within the UK, due to public spending cuts in England and the consequential effects of the
Barnett formula.
Welfare The Yes campaign argued that control of
welfare policy would be a major benefit of independence. According to the
Institute for Fiscal Studies, independence would "give the opportunity for more radical reform, so that the [welfare] system better reflects the views of the Scottish people". Yes Scotland and deputy first minister Nicola Sturgeon said the existing welfare system could only be guaranteed by voting for independence. In September 2013, the
Scottish Council for Voluntary Organisations (SCVO), which represents charities, called for a separate welfare system to be established in Scotland. In November 2013, the Scottish government pledged to use the powers of independence to reverse key aspects of the
Welfare Reform Act 2012, which was implemented across the UK despite opposition from a majority of Scotland's MPs. It said it would abolish
Universal Credit and the
bedroom tax. The SNP also criticised
Rachel Reeves, Labour's shadow secretary of state for work and pensions, for saying that a future UK Labour government would be even tougher on benefits than the
Cameron–Clegg coalition government. In January 2012, sources close to the prime minister told
The Scotsman that "a unified tax and benefit system is at the heart of a united country" and that these powers could not be devolved to Scotland after the referendum, though Liberal Democrat
Michael Moore said in August 2013 that devolution of parts of the welfare budget should be "up for debate". Labour politician
Jim Murphy, a former
Secretary of State for Scotland, said that he was "fiercely committed" to devolving welfare powers to the Scottish Parliament, but also warned that independence would be disruptive and would not be beneficial. Scottish Labour's Devolution Commission recommended in March 2014 that some aspects of the welfare state, including housing benefit and attendance allowance, should be devolved. Feminist economist
Ailsa McKay, a supporter of the Radical Independence movement, argued that an independent Scotland should change its welfare system dramatically by offering all its people a
basic income. == Responses ==