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Democratic backsliding in the United States

Democratic backsliding has been identified as a trend in the United States at the state and national levels in various indices and analyses, primarily during the Jim Crow era, and in the 21st century under Donald Trump. It is "a process of regime change towards autocracy that makes the exercise of political power more arbitrary and repressive, and that restricts the space for public contestation and political participation in the process of government selection."

Jim Crow era
Lead-up to Jim Crow The first Reconstruction era started with the Emancipation Proclamation in 1863. In the immediate aftermath of the American Civil War, the federal government of the United States initially took an active role in reducing racial discrimination. Between 1865 and 1870, three Reconstruction Amendments to the Constitution were passed to address racial inequality in the South: the Thirteenth (which abolished most forms of slavery), the Fourteenth (which addressed Citizenship Rights and equal protection under the law) and the Fifteenth (which made it illegal to deny the right to vote on the basis of "race, color, or previous condition of servitude"). With this, the number of African American men who could vote went from 0.5% in 1866 to 70% in 1872. These amendments would have offered more sweeping protections, but some Republican lawmakers wanted to limit their impact so that they would not apply to immigrants or poorer people in their districts. By the late 1870s, however, white backlash against the social, economic and political gains of Black people (exemplified by the violence and persecution they faced from terrorist groups like the Ku Klux Klan) contributed to the Compromise of 1877, wherein the Democratic Party (then dominated by Southern white supremacists) agreed to let Republicans win the 1876 presidential election, in exchange for removing federal troops from the South and, in the words of historian James M. McPherson, "the abandonment of the black man to his fate." Former supporters of Reconstruction-era policies began to argue that the government had made "too many changes too fast", and a White conservative movement within the Republican Party also started to gain influence. Jim Crow era In November 1898, white supremacist Democrats in North Carolina orchestrated a coup in Wilmington, deploying armed paramilitary groups to burn the Daily Record newspaper office, as it was Black-owned. They also terrorised Black neighbourhoods, and forced the resignation at gunpoint of the elected biracial city government, which they successfully replaced with their own appointees. In the months that followed, they entrenched their victory through a new state constitutional amendment imposing various measures, such as poll taxes, literacy tests. These disenfranchised almost all African Americans and many poor whites for nearly seventy years, ushering in a region‑wide Jim Crow order of racial segregation and white‑supremacist authoritarian rule. The Jim Crow era saw an erosion of political and civil rights that would span decades; between the 1890s and 1910s, Southern governments passed Jim Crow laws, which instituted poll taxes, literacy tests and other discriminatory systems, barring many Black and impoverished White Americans from voting. By 1913, this disenfranchisement extended into the federal government, as the Wilson Administration introduced segregation there as well. Jim Crow policies have been described as a democratic breakdown (or backsliding). ==21st century==
21st century
(blue) substantially and significantly (2010–2020) according to the V-Dem Institute; the remainder are substantially unchanged. The 21st century saw the erosion of voting rights and the rise of partisan gerrymandering by state legislatures. The first presidency of Donald Trump accelerated the undermining of democratic norms. A paper published in The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science said, "Trump undermined faith in elections, encouraged political violence, vilified the mainstream media, [and] positioned himself as a law-and-order strongman challenging immigrants and suppressing protests." In 2019, political scientists Robert R. Kaufman and Stephan Haggard saw "striking parallels in terms of democratic dysfunction, polarization, the nature of autocratic appeals, and the processes through which autocratic incumbents sought to exploit elected office" in the United States under Trump compared to other backsliding countries (Venezuela, Turkey, and Hungary). They argued that a transition to competitive authoritarianism is possible but unlikely. In 2020, Kurt Weyland presented a qualitative model for assessing democratic continuity and reversal using historical data from the experience of other countries. His study concluded that the United States is immune to democratic reversal. In 2021, political scientists Matias López and Juan Pablo Luna criticized his methodology and selection of parameters and argued that both democratic continuity and reversal are possible. With regard to the state of scholarly research on the subject, they wrote that "the probability of observing democratic backsliding in the United States remains an open and important question". According to some Canadian security experts, Canada may reevaluate historically close Canada–United States relations in response to democratic backsliding in the U.S., which could bring instability to the region and compromise Canada's greatest source of intelligence, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has openly said that U.S.–Canadian relations have entered a new chapter wherein the United States will no longer be seen as a trustworthy partner. account summarizing a Daily Mail poll of words voters associated with him. Quickly after resuming office for his second term in 2025, Trump became increasingly criticized by political scientists, scholars, and other significant figures for the threat he poses to American democracy. Early on, many cited the expansion of executive power and the reduction of agency workforces and regulations by the Department of Government Efficiency as an example of such threats. Freedom House described the pardon of January 6 United States Capitol attack defendants as an attempt to "excuse a violent assault on a key element of democracy". Steven Levitsky found the first two months of the second Trump administration to be the most aggressively and openly authoritarian case of democratic backsliding that he has seen, expressing particular concern about attacks on the courts. In September 2025, Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, has warned that the United States was heading towards 1930s-style authoritarian policies. Origins Some have linked the war on terror and the Iraq War, started during the presidency of George W. Bush, as enabling later democratic backsliding under the first Trump administration. A resurgence of authoritarian, white-ethnic identity politics has been cited as well. Some have linked that rise to social media, Google, YouTube and other algorithms of the attention economy that prioritize more sensational content. The changing media landscape has also resulted in a loss of journalists, with local journalism being offered as a partial solution for political polarization. Inequality and the role of money in politics Political scientists including Wendy Brown and H.A. Giroux argued that the United States has been de-democratizing since the 1980s because of neoconservatism and neoliberalism. Aziz Huq and Behrouz Alikhani cited the growing political influence of the wealthiest classes and global corporations, related to the loosening of campaign finance laws, especially the Citizens United Supreme Court decision that reaffirmed corporate personhood. Undemocratic institutions Huq also cited the inadequate democratization of national institutions since 1787. Levitsky and Ziblatt agree, finding 2016–2021 to be a period of democratic backsliding due largely to the inability to reform minoritarian institutions like the Electoral College and Senate that enabled reactionary xenophobic candidates to win office much more easily than in other democracies that had successfully reformed their institutions in the 20th century to be more representative. The Economist argues that the American constitution is more vulnerable to backsliding than parliamentary democracies, pointing to examples throughout history of backsliding to countries that copied the American model. Levitsky and Ziblatt argue that the U.S. Constitution is the most difficult in the world to amend "by a lot" and that this helps explain why the U.S. still has so many undemocratic institutions that most or all other democracies have reformed. Ari Berman criticized Article Five of the constitution, citing how as of 2024, 7% of U.S. citizens in the 13 least populous states can block any constitutional amendment. Richard Albert says amending the U.S. Constitution is virtually impossible and that it consistently ranks among the most difficult to amend. He cites partisan division as an explanation for how it was able to be amended at certain times and not others. Redistricting and gerrymandering Gerrymandering, the process of redistricting a state with unusual shapes specifically to give an advantage to one political party over another based on voter preference, has been an issue in American politics since as early as 1789, and impacting the representation of the state at the U.S. House of Representatives. Gerrymandering, whether for partisan purposes or racial discrimination, violates the U.S. Constitution, but the court systems have struggled with how to properly quantify when a constitutional violation has occurred. Because of the difficulty in enforcement, gerrymandering remained an effective tactic for political parties to control their representation in the House for over 200 years, but up through 2012, has typically been a back-and-forth conflict between the Republics and Democrats. Partisan gerrymandering After winning power in several states in 2010, the Republicans pushed for state redistricting using the results of the 2010 United States census. They implemented the Redistricting Majority Project, or REDMAP, which was aimed to redistrict states where Republicans were in control of the district maps to push for stronger Republican representation, typically through partisan gerrymandering. This was a contributing factor to the Republicans gaining control of the U.S. House by winning over 33 seats in the 2012 United States House of Representatives elections. These new Republican-drawn district maps were met by several lawsuits challenging their validity, reaching the Supreme Court across multiple cases. The Roberts Court has never struck down an election law for infringing suffrage or Equal Protection rights. Early cases focused on partisan gerrymandering, culminating with Rucho v. Common Cause (2019) where the Court determined that while partisan gerrymandering was still illegal, determination when this occurred was too difficult to assess, and ruled partisan gerrymandering cases were beyond the justiciability of the federal courts. Following the 2020 Census, following Rucho, at least 18 Republican controlled states, some that gained an extra seat from the census, made efforts to create partisan gerrymanders, at times, seeking to prevent or eliminate majority-minority districts, to gain more Republican seats and flip the U.S. House with the 2022 general election. Several Democratic states with partisan redistricting committees, including New York, Illinois and Maryland, made their own efforts to create partisan gerrymanders to offset the seats gained by Republicans in other states and maintain Democratic control of the House. The net result was that the Republicans were able to take the majority of the House, but holding only a narrow, single-digit margin following the 2022 election. Racial gerrymandering Congress passed the Voting Rights Act of 1965 (VRA) to coding constitutional voting protections for minority voters and combat institutional racism in state voting laws, primarily for states in the southeastern United States. When the Supreme Court ruled that partisan gerrymanders could not be decided in federal courts in Rucho, new challenges to these maps arose from claims of racial gerrymandering, where Republcian states often used "cracking and packing" to minimize the influence of minority voters who are more likely to vote Democratic. Chief Justice John Roberts had been keen on weakening the VRA since his nomination in 2005, saying "the way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race". In Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard (2023), Roberts led the court to determine affirmative action projects at colleges violated the Fourteenth Amendment, which became a precursor to other devisions to weaken the VRA. The court ruled 6–3 that state courts can adjudicate matters related to federal elections held in their state and the North Carolina Supreme Court was allowed to adjudicate whether the congressional map drawn by the North Carolina Legislature complied with the state constitution, because the United States Constitution "does not insulate state legislatures from the ordinary exercise of state judicial review". The court rejected the independent state legislature theory, which contended that state legislatures have "effectively unchecked authority" to draw maps according to their wishes. During his second term, Trump has openly encouraged Republican-led states to redistrict to gain more Republican seats in the House, igniting a nationwide mid-decade gerrymandering push. In August, the Texas Senate approved a new map aiming to add five Republican seats. This led Governor Gavin Newsom of California to redistrict the state in a way that would directly counter the new Texas map. In late September, Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe signed a new map into law. The new map was challenged as being racially driven, which a three-judge panel at the district court decided was the case and had blocked the maps, but the Supreme Court ordered a stay on this in December 2025, allowing these maps to be used in 2026. During this period, the Court heard Louisiana v. Callais (2026), involving whether a second majority-minority district was required in the state due to the new census data, following Section 2 of the VRA. The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that while the VRA was still constitutional, Section 2 could not be used to create districting maps based on race under the 14th and 15th Amendments, limiting the ability to challenge racial gerrymanders. The ruling, which many commentators said effectively ended the VRA, is expected to allow the southern states to eliminate most of the majority-minority districts and swing the states towards more likely complete Republican representation in the House. Supreme Court In addition to decisions on gerrymandering, Thomas M. Keck argues that because the Court has historically not served as a strong bulwark for democracy, the Roberts Court has the opportunity to go down in history as a defender of democracy. However, he believes that if the court shields Trump from criminal prosecution (after ensuring his access to the ballot), then the risks that come with an anti-democratic status quo of the current court will outweigh the dangers that come from court reform (including court packing). Aziz Z. Huq points to the blocking progress of democratizing institutions, increasing the disparity in wealth and power, and empowering an authoritarian white nationalist movement, as evidence that the Supreme Court has created a "permanent minority" incapable of democratic defeat. In a 2024 Vox article, Ian Millhiser describes the court as having become a partisan institution, giving itself more and more power to decide political questions. He worries that the court, especially if it adds more Republican appointees, could permanently entrench Republican rule. The Supreme Court has increased its power over the bureaucracy through the major questions doctrine and overruling the Chevron doctrine as well as over lower courts with Trump v. CASA and its expanded use of the shadow docket. The Supreme Court under Roberts has also made a number of decisions that support the unitary executive theory, that the President has sole power over the executive branch, allowing Trump to fire commissioners on several independent agencies. Election subversion By 2020, most state legislatures were controlled by the Republican Party, though some of those states had Democratic governors. As part of attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, many Republican legislators in seven battleground states won by Joe Biden created fraudulent certificates of ascertainment composed of "alternate electors" to declare Donald Trump had actually won their states, thereby overruling the will of voters. They hoped to pass these fraudulent certificates to vice president Mike Pence on January 6, 2021, so he would reverse Biden's election and certify Trump as the winner, a scheme which became known as the Pence Card. Pence instead counted the authentic slates of electors and properly declared Biden the victor. By June 2022, participants in the alternate electors scheme began receiving subpoenas from the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6 Attack and the United States Department of Justice. Investigations into a Trump fake electors plot ensued. Restrictions on voting Despite extensive research over decades finding that voting fraud is extremely rare, many Republicans assert it is widespread and that actions must be taken to prevent it. Amid persistent false allegations that widespread fraud had led to Trump's 2020 election loss, Republicans in multiple states began taking actions in 2021 to gain control of state and county election apparatuses, limit ballot access and challenge votes. By June, Republicans had introduced at least 216 bills in 41 states to give legislatures more power over elections officials. Republican lawmakers had stripped authority from secretaries of state, who oversee state elections. In Georgia, Republicans removed Black Democrats from county election boards. In Arkansas, they stripped election control from county authorities. Wisconsin Republicans, led by senator Ron Johnson, sought to dismantle the bipartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission, which the party had created five years earlier. In Michigan and other swing states, Republicans sought to create an "army" of poll workers and attorneys who could refer what they deemed questionable ballots to a network of friendly district attorneys to challenge. Through May 2022, Republican voters had nominated at least 108 candidates, in some 170 midterm races, who had repeated Trump's stolen election claims; at least 149 had campaigned on tightening voting procedures, despite the lack of evidence of widespread fraud. Dozens of these nominees sought offices to oversee the administration and certification of elections. Such identification can be through a U.S. passport, a Real ID state driver's license that indicates citizenship, or other federal identification. Democratic politicians and voting rights groups like the Brennan Center for Justice argue these requirements create difficulty for people who have moved across state lines or changed their last names through marriage, as obtaining a birth certificate or other documentation is not always easy. This makes it easier to deny voting rights to these individuals. Republican politicians and groups like the National Center for Public Policy Research argue the Act is necessary to advance election integrity and advances voter ID policies that are supported by most Americans. While the first SAVE Act expired with the end of the 2024 congressional session, it was reintroduced in 2025, and passed the House of Representatives along party lines in April 2025; due to the limited majority that the Republicans hold in the Senate, the bill is not expected to pass there unless the Senate votes to eliminate the filibuster rule. Antidemocratic and authoritarian tendencies Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt in their 2018 book How Democracies Die analyze major modern presidential candidates against four key indicators of authoritarian behavior and found that Richard Nixon met one, George Wallace one, and Donald Trump all four. The four indicators the authors use are 1) rejection of (or weak commitment to) democratic rules of the game, 2) denial of the legitimacy of political opponents, 3) toleration or encouragement of violence, and 4) readiness to curtail civil liberties of opponents (including the media). They cite the Republican Accountability Project, which in 2021 estimated that 6% of national Republicans politicians consistently stood up for democracy, with many of those who did losing reelection or retiring. By 2021, polling and research indicated a significant shift against democracy among Republican voters, both in terms of rhetoric and acceptance of potential political violence. The shift was most pronounced among Republicans who trusted Fox News, and more so Newsmax and One America News (OAN), who were more inclined to believe the disproven assertion that the 2020 presidential election had been stolen from Trump. A November 2021 Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) poll found that two-thirds of Republicans believed the election had been stolen, as did 82 percent of those who trusted Fox News more than any other media outlet. Ninety-seven percent of those who trusted Newsmax and OAN believed the election was stolen. Thirty percent of Republicans agreed with the statement, "true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country," rising to 40 percent among those who trust Newsmax and OAN; eleven percent of Democrats agreed. Robert Jones, CEO of PRRI, said he was deeply concerned about the poll findings and "we really have to take them seriously as a threat to democracy." Political scientist John Pitney, who was previously a domestic policy and legislative aide for congressional Republicans, remarked, "Back in the 1980s, Republicans aspired to be the party of hope and opportunity. Now it is the party of blood and soil. The culture war is front and center, and for many Republicans, it is close to being a literal war, not just a metaphorical one." Political scientist Larry Bartels, a co-director of the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions at Vanderbilt University, wrote in August 2020 that "substantial numbers of Republicans endorse statements contemplating violations of key democratic norms, including respect for the law and for the outcomes of elections and eschewing the use of force in pursuit of political ends." He ascribed the primary cause to "ethnic antagonism" among Republicans toward immigrants and minorities seeking political power and claims on government resources. It has also been described as a coup d'état or self-coup. In March 2025, ICE detained Mahmoud Khalil without charging him with any crime, and reportedly threatened his wife with arrest. Donna Lieberman, director of the New York Civil Liberties Union, condemned the detention and said it is a "targeted, retaliatory, and an extreme attack on his First Amendment rights" and "reeks of McCarthyism." Later that same month, the administration revoked the student visa of Ranjani Srinivasan, one of several Columbia University students targeted by immigration officials. Religious and white nationalism During the Trump era, a far-right, populist movement based on Christian nationalism surged, gaining a significant degree of mainstream acceptance, typified by the once fringe New Apostolic Reformation. The ideology of Trumpism broadly adheres to a deeply held belief that America was founded as a Christian nation. Philip Gorski, a Yale professor of the sociology of religion, calls this "a mythological version of American history." Movement adherents believe their Christian dominance has been usurped by other races and faiths, which Gorski characterizes as a form of racial tribalism: "a 'we don't like people who are trying to change [our country] or people who are different' form of nationalism." Multiple studies have found that support for democracy among white Americans is negatively correlated with their level of racial prejudice, resentment, and desire to maintain white power and status. Researchers have observed that many in the movement seek to reduce or eliminate the separation of church and state found in the Constitution. Every Republican voted against a July 2022 House measure requiring Homeland Security, the FBI and the Defense Department to "publish a report that analyzes and sets out strategies to combat white supremacist and neo-Nazi activity" in their ranks. A 2019 survey of active service members found that about one third had "personally witnessed examples of white nationalism or ideological-driven racism within the ranks in recent months." About one-fifth of those who were charged for participating in the January 6 attack were veterans, with some on active service. Rachel Kleinfeld, a scholar of global political violence and democracy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, found in July 2022 that Trump's affinity for far-right militia groups dated to his 2016 campaign and such groups had since become increasingly mainstreamed in the Republican Party. She argued the militia influence had spread since the January 6 attack among Republican leaders at the national, state, and local level. Political scientist Barbara Walter, who has studied political violence leading to civil war, commented in March 2022 that "There are definitely lots of groups on the far right who want war. They are preparing for war ... We know the warning signs. And we know that if we strengthen our democracy, and if the Republican Party decides it's no longer going to be an ethnic faction that's trying to exclude everybody else, then our risk of civil war will disappear." Reactions In March 2025, historian Christopher R. Browning found "considerable" democratic backsliding. Adrienne LaFrance wrote in April 2025 that "backsliding" may not be a strong enough word given the speed with which she believes U.S. democracy is declining under the second Trump administration. National security researcher Tom Nichols argued in October 2025 that Trump has taken control of the country's intelligence and judicial systems and is now testing the independence of the military. In September 2023, thirteen presidential centers dating from Herbert Hoover to Barack Obama released an unprecedented joint message warning of the fragile state of American democracy. The statement called for a recommitment to the rule of law and civility in political discourse, as well as respect for democratic institutions and secure and accessible elections. President Joe Biden warned of threats to democracy during addresses in 2022 and 2023. At a fundraiser in August 2022, Biden said Donald Trump's MAGA philosophy was "like semi-fascism". In September 2023, weeks after Trump had been indicted on federal and state charges related to his attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, and as most Republicans still refused to accept Trump's 2020 election loss, Biden said: Hillary Clinton, whom Trump defeated in 2016, said in October 2023 that Trump was likely to be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee and if elected "will wreck our democracy", likening his MAGA supporters to a "cult". Congress Despite the importance of Congress outlined in Article One, Congress has lost power to the executive and judiciary both intentionally and unintentionally. Executive Law Kristi Noem, during a March 2025 tour of CECOT, the Salvadoran prison which holds extrajudicial prisoners headquarters with Pam Bondi, the Attorney General, previously one of Trump's defense lawyers During the first year of his second presidency, Trump appointed personal lawyers and loyalists to positions including Pam Bondi, Emil Bove, Todd Blanche, Stanley Woodward, and D. John Sauer. In February 2026, Patrick J. Schiltz wrote "The court is not aware of another occasion in the history of the United States in which a federal court has had to threaten contempt — again and again and again — to force the United States government to comply with court orders". Unitary executive theory and Project 2025 While the scope of the theory is disputed around the powers of the president, it has grown in prominence since the Reagan administration and has been cited as justification for many of the increases in presidential power since. Donald Trump embraced the theory when in office and plans to use it more aggressively following his reelection to a second term. Presidents of both parties tend to view the idea that they should have increased power more favorably when in office. In April 2023, the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, unveiled Project 2025, a political initiative which details comprehensive plans for the next Republican president to consolidate control over the executive branch. Over 100 conservative organizations contributed to the project. Project 2025 proposes sweeping changes in the federal government relating to social and economic issues by cutting funding for, dismantling, or abolishing altogether major Cabinet departments and agencies, with the objective of placing their functions under the full and direct control of the president to impose an array of conservative policies on a national scale. The proposal includes replacing thousands of career federal civil servants with Trump loyalists to implement the plan, and includes the deployment of military forces for domestic law enforcement, pursuing Trump's political adversaries, and infusing government policies with Christian beliefs. Critics of Project 2025 have described it as an authoritarian Christian nationalist movement and a path for the United States to become an autocracy. Several experts in law have indicated that it would undermine the rule of law and the separation of powers. Ruth Ben-Ghiat, a scholar of fascism and authoritarian leaders at New York University, wrote in May 2024 that Project 2025 "is a plan for an authoritarian takeover of the United States that goes by a deceptively neutral name," characterizing participants in the project as "American incarnations of fascism." Announcing in June 2024 the formation of a task force to address Project 2025, Democratic congressman Jared Huffman characterized it as "an unprecedented embrace of extremism, fascism, and religious nationalism, orchestrated by the radical right and its dark money backers." Some academics worry Project 2025 represents significant executive aggrandizement, a type of democratic backsliding. Militarism ==Indicators==
Indicators
Bright Line Watch Bright Line Watch classifies the United States as a mixed regime, ranking the country in between "Israel (49) and Mexico (60) and well below our nominal democratic peers of Great Britain (83) and Canada (88)". It polls political scientists more regularly than some other indices and has shown a significant decrease in democracy at the start of Trump's first and second terms. Brendan Nyhan and NPR interpreted 2025 survey results as showing significant consensus among political scientists around concerns for further democratic backsliding at the start of the second Trump administration. While not a representative sample, it is a large sample that has been used since 2016 to gauge shifts in how experts and the public perceive American democracy's health. Freedom House As part of their Freedom in the World survey series, Freedom House downgraded the United States' score significantly in their civil rights and political liberties index between 2010 (94) and 2020 (83), including an accelerated 6-point loss during the first presidency of Donald Trump alone, citing the need for three main reforms: removing barriers to voting, limiting the influence of money in politics, and establishing independent redistricting commissions. In the Freedom in the World index published in 2026, the U.S. received its lowest score (81) since the report began its 100-point system in 2002. Polity The Polity data series labels the United States an anocracy. In 2025, they wrote: "The USA is no longer considered a democracy and lies at the cusp of autocracy; it has experienced a Presidential Coup and an Adverse Regime Change event". IDEA's democracy scores started sliding for the United States in 2016. In their most recent democracy index published in 2025, which was conducted before Trump's second term, the U.S. is among the lowest-ranking OECD members in all categories except for participation. Secretary General of the IDEA, Kevin Casas Zamora, said: "Some of the things that we saw during the [2024] election at the end of last year and in the first few months of 2025 are fairly disturbing". Grumbach found Alabama, Tennessee, Ohio, Wisconsin, and North Carolina were the worst performers (with Wisconsin and North Carolina previously ranking at the top), and suggested a sense of racial threat was one of the main drivers in these states with larger Black populations becoming more anti-democratic. Grumbach also cites economic inequality, the nationalization of state politics through declining journalism and an increase in national donors as contributors of backsliding. While he notes it would be difficult to compare across eras, he believes that the slavery and Jim Crow eras in particular had far greater gaps in the quality of democracy between states than the present-day gaps he analyzes and notes that the U.S., in the eyes of some, was not a democracy until 1964. 2018–2024 resulted in slight improvements overall thanks to the expansion of mail-in voting during COVID-19 and a couple states restricting gerrymandering. The Economist Democracy Index The Economist Democracy Index started the U.S. at the index's launch in 2006 at an 8.22/10 (full democracy) though the rating started declining in 2010, with the country being classified as a flawed democracy beginning in 2016. It dropped to its lowest rating yet of 7.65 in 2025. The Economist stated that since Donald Trump's second presidency, "[e]fforts to redraw electoral boundaries, the use of the military to quell protests and continued political polarisation weighed on America’s score. The Department of Government Efficiency disrupted the functioning of government, and attempts to muzzle the media hit civil liberties." In March 2025, V-Dem Institute's director Staffan I. Lindberg said the U.S. was on track to lose its democracy status in six months. In September 2025, he said this had occurred by his analysis. V-Dem has measures on democracy starting in 1789, providing rare historical data to compare backsliding events, though comparing across centuries has challenges. The Century Foundation The Century Foundation's Democracy Meter for 2025 rated the U.S. at 57/100 on its scale involving 23 categories to evaluate the quality of democracy, down from 79/100 in 2024. Their "analysis suggests U.S. democracy is at greater risk than at any time since Watergate, and it may even be approaching its pre-Civil Rights Movement lowpoint." In September 2025, the U.S. scored 55/100 on said index's overall threat level score, the highest ever recorded. The country was singled out in the report as an area of "alarming decline", with changes under President Donald Trump cited as a primary factor. In the "Political context" section of the U.S.' country profile, the organization stated: "Since returning to the White House in 2025, President Trump has extended the war on the press he launched while running for his first presidential term. He has censored government data, attempted to dismantle US public broadcasters, weaponized independent government agencies to punish media that criticize his actions, halted aid funding for media freedom internationally, sued disfavored outlets, and applied pressure to install cronies to lead others. Press freedom in the United States continues to decline as a result of these actions." Public opinion Bright Line surveys from the University of Chicago have taken frequent measurements on attitudes around democracy in the U.S. from political scientists and a representative sample of the public, and have shown democratic decline consistent with V-Dem and The Economist Democracy Index. ==See also==
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