"Peak oil" is the period when the maximum rate of global
petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. It relates to a long-term decline in the available supply of petroleum. This, combined with increasing demand, significantly increases the worldwide prices of petroleum-derived products. Most significant is the availability and price of liquid fuel for transportation. The US Department of Energy in the
Hirsch report indicates that "The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past 'energy crisis' experience will provide relatively little guidance."
Mitigation efforts To avoid the serious
social and
economic implications a global decline in oil production could entail, the 2005 Hirsch report emphasized the need to find alternatives, at least ten to twenty years before the peak, and to phase out the use of petroleum over that time. Such
mitigation could include energy conservation, fuel substitution, and the use of unconventional oil. Because mitigation can reduce the use of traditional petroleum sources, it can also affect the timing of peak oil and the shape of the
Hubbert curve.
Energy policy may be reformed leading to greater
energy intensity, for example in
Iran with the
2007 Gas Rationing Plan in Iran,
Canada and the
National Energy Program and in the US with the
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 also called the
Clean Energy Act of 2007. Another mitigation measure is the setup of a cache of
secure fuel reserves like the United States
Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in case of
national emergency.
Chinese energy policy includes specific targets within their 5-year plans.
Andrew McKillop has been a proponent of a contract and converge model or capping scheme, to mitigate both emissions of
greenhouse gases and a peak oil crisis. The imposition of a
carbon tax would have mitigating effects on an oil crisis. The Oil Depletion Protocol has been developed by
Richard Heinberg to implement a powerdown during a
peak oil crisis. While many
sustainable development and energy policy organisations have advocated reforms to
energy development from the 1970s, some cater to a specific crisis in energy supply including
Energy-Quest and the
International Association for Energy Economics. The
Oil Depletion Analysis Centre and the
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas examine the timing and likely effects of peak oil. Ecologist
William Rees believes that Due to a lack of political viability on the issue, government-mandated fuel prices hikes are unlikely and the unresolved
dilemma of fossil fuel dependence is becoming a
wicked problem. A global
soft energy path seems improbable, due to the
rebound effect. Conclusions that the world is heading towards an unprecedented large and potentially devastating global energy crisis due to a decline in the availability of cheap oil lead to calls for a decreasing dependency on
fossil fuel. Other ideas concentrate on design and development of improved, energy-efficient urban infrastructure in developing nations. Government funding for alternative energy is more likely to increase during an energy crisis, so too are incentives for
oil exploration. For example, funding for research into
inertial confinement fusion technology increased during the 1970s. Kirk Sorensen and others have suggested that additional nuclear power plants, particularly
liquid fluoride thorium reactors have the
energy density to mitigate
global warming and replace the energy from
peak oil,
peak coal and
peak gas. The reactors produce electricity and heat so much of the transportation infrastructure should move over to electric vehicles. However, the high process heat of the
molten salt reactors could be used to make
liquid fuels from any carbon source. == Social and economic effects ==