The process of allocating financial resources to major
investment- or
capital expenditure is known as
capital budgeting. thus impacting future financing activities and
overall valuation. More sophisticated treatments will thus produce accompanying
sensitivity- and
risk metrics, and will incorporate any
inherent contingencies. The focus of capital budgeting is on major "
projects" - often
investments in other firms, or expansion into new markets
or geographies - but may extend also to
new plants, new / replacement machinery,
new products, and
research and development programs; day to day
operational expenditure is the realm of
financial management as
below.
Investment and project valuation In general, each "
project's" value will be estimated using a
discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, and the opportunity with the highest value, as measured by the resultant
net present value (NPV) will be selected (first applied in a corporate finance setting by
Joel Dean in 1951). This requires estimating the size and timing of all of the
incremental cash flows resulting from the project. Such future cash flows are then
discounted to determine their
present value (see
Time value of money). These present values are then summed, and this sum net of the initial investment outlay is the
NPV. See for general discussion, and
Valuation using discounted cash flows for the mechanics, with discussion re modifications for corporate finance. The NPV is greatly affected by the
discount rate. Thus, identifying the proper discount rate – often termed, the project "hurdle rate" – is critical to choosing appropriate projects and investments for the firm. The hurdle rate is the minimum acceptable
return on an investment – i.e., the
project appropriate discount rate. The hurdle rate should reflect the riskiness of the investment, typically measured by
volatility of cash flows, and must take into account the project-relevant financing mix. Managers use models such as the
CAPM or the
APT to estimate a discount rate appropriate for a particular project, and use the
weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to reflect the financing mix selected. (A common error in choosing a discount rate for a project is to apply a WACC that applies to the entire firm. Such an approach may not be appropriate where the risk of a particular project differs markedly from that of the firm's existing portfolio of assets.) In conjunction with NPV, there are several other measures used as (secondary)
selection criteria in corporate finance; see . These are visible from the DCF and include
discounted payback period,
IRR,
Modified IRR,
equivalent annuity,
capital efficiency, and
ROI. Alternatives (complements) to the standard DCF, model
economic profit as opposed to
free cash flow; these include
residual income valuation,
MVA /
EVA (
Joel Stern,
Stern Stewart & Co) and
APV (
Stewart Myers). With the cost of capital correctly and correspondingly adjusted, these valuations should yield the same result as the DCF. These may, however, be considered more appropriate for projects with negative free cash flow several years out, but which are expected to generate positive cash flow thereafter (and may also be less sensitive to terminal value).
Sensitivity and scenario analysis Given the
uncertainty inherent in project forecasting and valuation, analysts will wish to assess the
sensitivity of project NPV to the various inputs (i.e. assumptions) to the DCF
model. In a typical
sensitivity analysis the analyst will vary one key factor while holding all other inputs constant,
ceteris paribus. The sensitivity of NPV to a change in that factor is then observed, and is calculated as a "slope": ΔNPV / Δfactor. For example, the analyst will determine NPV at various
growth rates in
annual revenue as specified (usually at set increments, e.g. -10%, -5%, 0%, 5%...), and then determine the sensitivity using this formula. Often, several variables may be of interest, and their various combinations produce a "value-
surface" (or even a "value-
space"), where NPV is then a
function of several variables. See also
Stress testing. Using a related technique, analysts also run
scenario based forecasts of NPV. Here, a scenario comprises a particular outcome for economy-wide, "global" factors (
demand for the product,
exchange rates,
commodity prices, etc.)
as well as for company-specific factors (
unit costs, etc.). As an example, the analyst may specify various revenue growth scenarios (e.g. -5% for "Worst Case", +5% for "Likely Case" and +15% for "Best Case"), where all key inputs are adjusted so as to be consistent with the growth assumptions, and calculate the NPV for each. Note that for scenario based analysis, the various combinations of inputs must be
internally consistent (see
discussion at
Financial modeling), whereas for the sensitivity approach these need not be so. An application of this methodology is to determine an "
unbiased" NPV, where management determines a (subjective) probability for each scenario – the NPV for the project is then the
probability-weighted average of the various scenarios; see
First Chicago Method. (See also
rNPV, where cash flows, as opposed to scenarios, are probability-weighted.)
Quantifying uncertainty A further advancement which "overcomes the limitations of sensitivity and scenario analyses by examining the effects of all possible combinations of variables and their realizations" is to construct
stochastic or
probabilistic financial models – as opposed to the traditional static and
deterministic models as above. see
Monte Carlo Simulation versus "What If" Scenarios. The output is then a
histogram of project NPV, and the average NPV of the potential investment – as well as its
volatility and other sensitivities – is then observed. This histogram provides information not visible from the static DCF: for example, it allows for an estimate of the probability that a project has a net present value greater than zero (or any other value). Continuing the above example: instead of assigning three discrete values to revenue growth, and to the other relevant variables, the analyst would assign an appropriate
probability distribution to each variable (commonly
triangular or
beta), and, where possible, specify the observed or supposed
correlation between the variables. These distributions would then be "sampled" repeatedly –
incorporating this correlation – so as to generate several thousand random but possible scenarios, with corresponding valuations, which are then used to generate the NPV histogram. The resultant statistics (
average NPV and
standard deviation of NPV) will be a more accurate mirror of the project's "randomness" than the variance observed under the scenario based approach. (These are often used as estimates of the
underlying "
spot price" and volatility for the real option valuation below; see .) A more robust Monte Carlo model would include the possible occurrence of risk events - e.g., a
credit crunch - that drive variations in one or more of the DCF model inputs.
Valuing flexibility Often - for example
R&D projects - a project may open (or close) various paths of action to the company, but this reality will not (typically) be captured in a strict NPV approach. Some analysts account for this uncertainty by Even when employed, however, these latter methods do not normally properly account for changes in risk over the project's lifecycle and hence fail to appropriately adapt the risk adjustment. Management will therefore (sometimes) employ tools which place an explicit value on these options. So, whereas in a DCF valuation the
most likely or average or
scenario specific cash flows are discounted, here the "flexible and staged nature" of the investment is
modelled, and hence "all" potential
payoffs are considered. See
further under
Real options valuation. The difference between the two valuations is the "value of flexibility" inherent in the project. The two most common tools are
Decision Tree Analysis (DTA) and
real options valuation (ROV); they may often be used interchangeably: • DTA values flexibility by incorporating
possible events (or
states) and consequent
management decisions. (For example, a company would build a factory
given that demand for its product exceeded a certain level during the pilot-phase, and
outsource production otherwise. In turn, given further demand, it would similarly expand the factory, and maintain it otherwise. In a DCF model, by contrast, there is no "branching" – each scenario must be modelled separately.) In the
decision tree, each management decision in response to an "event" generates a "branch" or "path" which the company could follow; the probabilities of each event are determined or specified by management. Once the tree is constructed: (1) "all" possible events and their resultant paths are visible to management; (2) given this "knowledge" of the events that could follow — and applying
the above value-maximization criterion — management chooses the branches (i.e. actions) corresponding to the highest value path
probability weighted; (3) this path is then taken as representative of project value. • ROV is usually used when the value of a project is
contingent on the
value of some other asset or
underlying variable. (For example, the
viability of a
mining project is contingent on the price of
gold; if the price is too low, management will abandon the
mining rights, if sufficiently high, management will
develop the
ore body. Again, a DCF valuation would capture only one of these outcomes.) Here: (1) using
financial option theory as a framework, the decision to be taken is identified as corresponding to either a
call option or a
put option; (2) an appropriate valuation technique is then employed – usually a variant on the
binomial options model or a bespoke
simulation model, while
Black–Scholes type formulae are used less often; see
Contingent claim valuation. (3) The "true" value of the project is then the NPV of the "most likely" scenario plus the option value. (Real options in corporate finance were first discussed by
Stewart Myers in 1977; viewing corporate strategy as a series of options was originally per
Timothy Luehrman, in the late 1990s.) See also
§ Option pricing approaches under
Business valuation. ==Dividend policy==