Monetary interpretations Examining the
causes of the Great Depression raises multiple issues: what factor set off the first downturn in 1929; what structural weaknesses and specific events turned it into a major depression; how the downturn spread from country to country; and why the economic recovery was so prolonged. Many rural banks began to fail in October 1930 when farmers defaulted on loans. There was no
federal deposit insurance during that time as
bank failures were considered a normal part of economic life. Worried depositors started to withdraw savings, so the
money multiplier worked in reverse. Banks were forced to liquidate assets (such as calling in loans rather than creating new loans). This caused the
money supply to shrink and the economy to contract (the
Great Contraction), resulting in a significant decline in aggregate investment. The decreased money supply further aggravated
price deflation, putting more pressure on already struggling businesses. . The U.S. used the
gold standard until 1934 and controlled nearly half of the global gold supply during the inter-war period. The
U.S. Government's commitment to the
gold standard prevented it from engaging in
expansionary monetary policy. High
interest rates needed to be maintained in order to attract international investors who bought foreign assets with gold. However, the high interest also inhibited domestic business borrowing. The U.S. interest rates were also affected by
France's decision to raise their interest rates to attract gold to their vaults. In theory, the U.S. would have two potential responses to that: allow the
exchange rate to adjust, or increase their own interest rates to maintain the gold standard. At the time, the U.S. was pegged to the gold standard. Therefore, Americans converted their dollars into
francs to buy more French assets, the demand for the
U.S. dollar fell, and the exchange rate increased. One of the only things the U.S. could do to get back into equilibrium was increase interest rates. In the late 20th century,
Winner of the Swedish Central Bank Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences economist
Milton Friedman and his fellow
monetarist Anna Schwartz argued that the
Federal Reserve could have stemmed the severity of the Depression, but failed to exercise its role of managing the
monetary system and ameliorating
banking panics, resulting in a
Great Contraction of the economy from 1929 until the
New Deal began in 1933. This view was endorsed by
Fed Governor Ben Bernanke who in 2002 said in a speech honoring Friedman and Schwartz: Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression, you're right. We did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again. The value that evaporated that week was ten times more than the entire federal budget and more than all of what the U.S. had spent on
World War I. By 1930 the value of shares had fallen by 90%. Since many banks had also invested their clients' savings in the stock market, these banks were forced to close when the stock market crashed. After the stock market crash and the bank closures, people were afraid of losing more money. Because of their fears of further economic challenge, individuals from all classes stopped purchasing and consuming. Thousands of individual investors who believed they could get rich by investing on margin lost everything they had. The stock market crash severely impacted the American economy.
Banking failures A large contribution was the closure and suspension of thousands of banks across the country. Financial institutions failed for several reasons, including unregulated lending procedures, confidence in the
gold standard,
consumer confidence in future economics, and agricultural defaults on outstanding loans. With these compounding issues the banking system struggled to keep up with the public's increasing demand for cash withdrawals. This overall decreased the money supply and forced the banks to resort to
short or
liquidate existing loans. The economy as a whole experienced a massive reduction in banking footholds across the country amounting to more than nine thousand closed banks by 1933. The closures resulted in a massive withdrawal of deposits by millions of Americans estimated at near $6.8 billion ($ in dollars). During this time the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was not in place resulting in a loss of roughly $1.36 billion (or 20%) of the total $6.8 billion accounted for within the failed banks. These losses came directly from everyday individuals' savings, investments and bank accounts. As a result,
GDP fell from the high seven-hundreds in 1929 to the low to mid six-hundreds in 1933 before seeing any recovery for the first time in nearly 4 years. Federal leadership intervention is highly debated on its effectiveness and overall participation. The
Federal Reserve Act could not effectively tackle the banking crisis as state bank and trust companies were not compelled to be a member, paper eligible discount member banks heavily restricted access to the Federal Reserve, power between the twelve Federal Reserve banks was decentralized and federal level leadership was ineffective, inexperienced, and weak.
Banking growth Throughout the early 1900s banking regulations were extremely lax if not non-existent. The Currency Act of 1900 lowered the required
capital of investors from $50,000 to $25,000 to create a
national bank. As a result of this change nearly two thirds of the banks formed over the next ten years were quite small, averaging just above the $25,000 in required capital. The number of banks would nearly double (number of banks divided by Real GDP) from 1890 to 1920 due to the lack of oversight and qualification when banking
charters were being issued in the first two decades of the 1900s. The unregulated growth of small rural banking institutions can be partially attributed to the rising cost of agriculture especially in the
Corn Belt and
Cotton Belt. Throughout the corn and cotton belts real estate increases drove the demand for more local funding to continue to supply rising agricultural economics. The rural banking structures would supply the needed capital to meet the farm
commodity market, however, this came with a price of reliability and low risk lending. Economic growth was promising from 1887 to 1920 with an average of 6 percent growth in GDP. In particular, the participation in
World War I drove a booming agricultural market that drove optimism at the consumer and lending level which, in turn, resulted in a more lax approach in the lending process. Over banked conditions existed which pressured struggling banks to increase their services (specifically to the agricultural customers) without any additional regulatory oversight or qualifications. This dilemma introduced several high-risk and marginal business returns to the banking market. Banking growth would continue through the first two decades well outside of previous trends disregarding the current economic and population standards. Banking profitability and loan standards begin to deteriorate as early as 1900 as a result. . April 18, 1935. Crop failures beginning in 1921 began to impact this poorly regulated system, the expansion areas of corn and cotton suffered the largest due to the
Dust Bowl era resulting in real estate value reductions. In addition, the year 1921 was the peak for banking expansion with roughly 31,000 banks in activity, however, with the failures at the agricultural level 505 banks would close between 1921 and 1930 marking the largest banking system failure on record. Regulatory questions began to hit the debating table around banking qualifications as a result; discussions would continue into the Great Depression as not only were banks failing but some would disappear altogether with no rhyme or reason. The panic of financial crisis would increase in the Great Depression due to the lack of confidence in the regulatory and recovery displayed during the 1920s, this ultimately drove a nation of doubts, uneasiness, and lack of consumer confidence in the banking system.
Contagion With a lack of consumer confidence in the economic direction given by the federal government panic started to spread across the country shortly after the
Wall Street Crash of 1929. President Hoover retained the
Gold Standard as the country's currency gauge throughout the following years. As a result, the American shareholders with the majority of the gold reserves began to grow wary of the value of gold in the near future.
Europe's decision to move away from the
Gold Standard caused individuals to start to withdraw gold shares and move the investments out of the country or began to hoard gold for future investment. The market continued to suffer due to these reactions, and as a result caused several of the everyday individuals to speculate on the economy in the coming months. Rumors of market stability and banking conditions began to spread, consumer confidence continued to drop and panic began to set in. Contagion spread, pushing Americans all over the country to withdraw their deposits
en masse. This idea would continue from 1929 to 1933 causing the greatest financial crisis ever seen at the banking level pushing the economic recovery efforts further from resolution. An increase in the currency-deposit ratio and a money stock determinant forced money stock to fall and income to decline. This panic-induced banking failure took a mild recession to a major recession. Whether this caused the Great Depression is still heavily debated due to many other attributing factors. However, it is evident that the banking system suffered massive reductions across the country due to the lack of consumer confidence. As withdraw requests would exceed cash availability banks began conducting steed discount sales such as fire sales and short sales. Due to the inability to immediately determine current value worth these fire sales and short sales would result in massive losses when recuperating any possible revenue for outstanding and defaulted loans. This would allow healthy banks to take advantage of the struggling units forcing additional losses resulting in banks not being able to deliver on depositor demands and creating a failing cycle that would become widespread. Investment would continue to stay low through the next half-decade as the private sector would hoard savings due to uncertainty of the future. The federal government would run additional policy changes such as the Check tax, monetary restrictions (including reduction of money supply by burning), High Wage Policy, and the New Deal through the Hoover and Roosevelt administration. ==Social and political impacts==