Energy transition

An energy transition is a broad shift in technologies and behaviours that are needed to replace one source of energy with another. A prime example is the change from a pre-industrial system relying on traditional biomass, wind, water and muscle power to an industrial system characterized by pervasive mechanization, steam power and the use of coal. The IPCC does not define energy transition in the glossary of its Sixth Assessment Report but it does define transition as: "The process of changing from one state or condition to another in a given period of time. Transition can occur in individuals, firms, cities, regions and nations, and can be based on incremental or transformative change." == Development of the term ==

After the 1973 oil crisis, the term energy transition was coined by politicians and media. It was popularised by US President Jimmy Carter in his 1977 Address on the Nation on Energy, calling to "look back into history to understand our energy problem. Twice in the last several hundred years, there has been a transition in the way people use energy ... Because we are now running out of gas and oil, we must prepare quickly for a third change to strict conservation and to the renewed use of coal and to permanent renewable energy sources like solar power." The term was later globalised after the 1979 second oil shock, during the 1981 United Nations Conference on New and Renewable Sources of Energy. From the 1990s, debates on energy transition have increasingly taken climate change mitigation into account. Parties to the agreement committed "to limit global warming to "well below 2 °C, preferably 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels". This requires a rapid energy transition with a downshift of fossil fuel production to stay within the carbon emissions budget. use of renewable energies: Agricultural business with biogas plant and photovoltaic roof In this context, the term energy transition encompasses a reorientation of energy policy. This could imply a shift from centralized to distributed generation. It also includes attempts to replace overproduction and avoidable energy consumption with energy-saving measures and increased efficiency. The historical transitions from locally supplied wood, water and wind energies to globally supplied fossil and nuclear fuels has induced growth in end-use demand through the rapid expansion of engineering research, education and standardisation. The mechanisms for the whole-systems changes include new discipline in Transition Engineering amongst all engineering professions, entrepreneurs, researchers and educators. However it has been argued that the term is a mere slogan and that rather than transitioning, as of 2024, use of all forms of primary energy has increased. ==Examples of past energy transitions==

Historic approaches to past energy transitions are shaped by two main discourses. One argues that humankind experienced several energy transitions in its past, while the other suggests the term "energy additions" as better reflecting the changes in global energy supply in the last three centuries. The chronologically first discourse was most broadly described by Vaclav Smil. It underlines the change in the energy mix of countries and the global economy. By looking at data in percentages of the primary energy source used in a given context, it paints a picture of the world's energy systems as having changed significantly over time, going from biomass to coal, to oil, and now a mix of mostly coal, oil and natural gas. Until the 1950s, the economic mechanism behind energy systems was local rather than global. The second discourse was most broadly described by Jean-Baptiste Fressoz. It emphasises that the term "energy transition" was first used by politicians, not historians, to describe a goal to achieve in the future – not as a concept to analyse past trends. When looking at the sheer amount of energy being used by humankind, the picture is one of ever-increasing consumption of all the main energy sources available to humankind. For instance, the increased use of coal in the 19th century did not replace wood consumption, indeed more wood was burned. Another example is the deployment of passenger cars in the 20th century. This evolution triggered an increase in both oil consumption (to drive the car) and coal consumption (to make the steel needed for the car). In other words, according to this approach, humankind never performed a single energy transition in its history but performed several energy additions. Contemporary energy transitions differ in terms of motivation and objectives, drivers and governance. As development progressed, different national systems became more and more integrated becoming the large, international systems seen today. Historical changes of energy systems have been extensively studied. While historical energy changes were generally protracted affairs, unfolding over many decades, this does not necessarily hold true for the present energy transition, which is unfolding under very different policy and technological conditions. For current energy systems, many lessons can be learned from history. The need for large amounts of firewood in early industrial processes in combination with prohibitive costs for overland transportation led to a scarcity of accessible (e.g. affordable) wood, and eighteenth century glass-works "operated like a forest clearing enterprise". When Britain had to resort to coal after largely having run out of wood, the resulting fuel crisis triggered a chain of events that two centuries later culminated in the Industrial Revolution. Similarly, increased use of peat and coal were vital elements paving the way for the Dutch Golden Age, roughly spanning the entire 17th century. Another example where resource depletion triggered technological innovation and a shift to new energy sources is 19th century whaling: whale oil eventually became replaced by kerosene and other petroleum-derived products. To speed up the energy transition it is also conceivable that there will be government buyouts or bailouts of coal mining regions. == Drivers for current energy transition==

loop to form what has been called a virtuous cycle—the opposite of a vicious cycle. For example, as more and more solar modules are deployed, prices fall because of the economies of scale, allowing the technology to become cost-competitive in new applications that in turn increase demand for more deployment. Climate change mitigation and co-benefits A rapid energy transition to very-low or zero-carbon sources is required to mitigate the effects of climate change. Coal, oil and gas combustion account for 89% of emissions and still provide 78% of primary energy consumption. Despite the knowledge about the risks of climate change and the increasing number of climate policies adopted since the 1980s, however, energy transitions have not accelerated towards decarbonization beyond historical trends and remain far off track in achieving climate targets. The deployment of renewable energy can generate co-benefits of climate change mitigation: positive socio-economic effects on employment, industrial development, health and energy access. Depending on the country and the deployment scenario, replacing coal power plants can more than double the number of jobs per average MW capacity. The energy transition could create many green jobs, for example in Africa. The costs for retraining workers for the renewable energy industry was found to be trivial for both coal in the U.S. and oil sands in Canada. The latter of which would only demand 2–6% of federal, provincial, and territorial oil and gas subsidies for a single year to be reallocated to provide oil and gas workers with a new career of approximately equivalent pay. In non-electrified rural areas, the deployment of solar mini-grids can significantly improve electricity access. Employment opportunities by the green transition are associated with the use of renewable energy sources or building activity for infrastructure improvements and renovations. Energy security Another important driver is energy security and independence, with increasing importance in Europe and Taiwan because of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Unlike Europe's 2010s dependence on Russian gas, even if China stops supplying solar panels those already installed continue generating electricity. Militaries are using and developing electric vehicles, particularly for their stealthiness, but not tanks. As of 2023 renewable energy in Taiwan is far too small to help in a blockade. Centralised facilities such as oil refineries and thermal power plants can be put out of action by air attack, whereas although solar can be attacked decentralised power such as solar and wind may be less vulnerable. Solar and batteries reduces risky fuel convoys. However large hydropower plants are vulnerable. Some say that nuclear power plants are unlikely to be military targets, but others conclude that civil NPPs in war zones can be weaponised and exploited by the hostile forces not only for impeding energy supplies (and thus shattering the public morale of the adversary) but also for blackmailing and coercing the decisionmakers of the attacked state and their international allies with a vision of man-made nuclear disaster. Economic development For many developing economies, for example in the mineral-rich countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, the transition to renewable energies is predicted to become a driver of sustainable economic development. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has identified 37 minerals as critical for clean energy technologies and estimates that by 2050 global demand for these will increase by 235 per cent. Africa has large reserves of many of these so-called "green minerals, such as bauxite, cobalt, copper, chromium, manganese and graphite. The African Union has outlined a policy framework, the Africa Mining Vision, to leverage the continent's mineral reserves in pursuit of sustainable development and socio-economic transformation. Achieving these goals requires mineral-rich African economies to transition from commodity export to manufacture of higher value-added products. From 2010 to 2019, the competitiveness of wind and solar power substantially increased. Unit costs of solar energy dropped sharply by 85%, wind energy by 55%, and lithium-ion batteries by 85%. In 2021, the new electricity generating capacity of renewables exceeded 80% of all installed power. ==Key technologies and approaches==

. The emissions reductions necessary to keep global warming below 2°C will require a system-wide transformation of the way energy is produced, distributed, stored, and consumed. For a society to replace one form of energy with another, multiple technologies and behaviours in the energy system must change. Renewable energy The most important energy sources in the low carbon energy transition are wind power and solar power. They could reduce net emissions by 4 billion tons CO2 equivalent per year each, half of it with lower net lifetime costs than the reference. Other renewable energy sources include bioenergy, geothermal energy and tidal energy, but they currently have higher net lifetime costs. However, because of its heavy dependence on geography and the generally high environmental and social impact of hydroelectric power plants, the growth potential of this technology is limited. Wind and solar power are considered more scalable, but still require vast quantities of land and materials. They have higher potential for growth. These sources have grown nearly exponentially in recent decades thanks to rapidly decreasing costs. In 2019, wind power supplied 5.3% worldwide electricity while solar power supplied 2.6%. While production from most types of hydropower plants can be actively controlled, production from wind and solar power depends on the weather. Electrical grids must be extended and adjusted to avoid wastage. Dammed hydropower is a dispatchable source, while solar and wind are variable renewable energy sources. These sources require dispatchable backup generation or energy storage to provide continuous and reliable electricity. For this reason, storage technologies also play a key role in the renewable energy transition. As of 2020, the largest scale storage technology is pumped storage hydroelectricity, accounting for the great majority of energy storage capacity installed worldwide. Other important forms of energy storage are electric batteries and power to gas. The "Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions" report by the IEA emphasizes the necessity of increasing grid investments to over $600 billion annually by 2030, up from $300 billion, to accommodate the integration of renewable energy. By 2040, the grid must expand by more than 80 million kilometers to manage renewable sources, which are projected to account for over 80% of the global power capacity increase over the next two decades. Failure to enhance grid infrastructure timely could lead to an additional 58 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, significantly risking a 2 °C global temperature rise. Integration of variable renewable energy sources With the integration of renewable energy, local electricity production is becoming more variable. It has been recommended that "coupling sectors, energy storage, smart grids, demand side management, sustainable biofuels, hydrogen electrolysis and derivatives will ultimately be needed to accommodate large shares of renewables in energy systems". In the 1970s and 1980s, nuclear power gained a large share in some countries. In France and Slovakia more than half of the electrical power is still nuclear. It is a low carbon energy source but comes with risks and increasing costs. Since the late 1990s, deployment has slowed down. Decommissioning increases as many reactors are close to the end of their lifetime or long before because of anti-nuclear sentiments. Germany stopped its last three nuclear power plants by mid April 2023. On the other hand, the China General Nuclear Power Group is aiming for 200 GW by 2035, produced by 150 additional reactors. Electrification With the switch to clean energy sources where power is generated via electricity, end uses of energy such as transportation and heating need to be electrified to run on these clean energy sources. Concurrent with this switch is an expansion of the grid to handle larger amounts of generated electricity to supply to these end uses. Two key areas of electrification are electric vehicles and heat pumps. It is easier to sustainably produce electricity than it is to sustainably produce liquid fuels. Therefore, adoption of electric vehicles is a way to make transport more sustainable. While electric vehicle technology is relatively mature in road transport, electric shipping and aviation are still early in their development, hence sustainable liquid fuels may have a larger role to play in these sectors. A key sustainable solution to heating is electrification (heat pumps, or the less efficient electric heater). The IEA estimates that heat pumps currently provide only 5% of space and water heating requirements globally, but could provide over 90%. Use of ground source heat pumps not only reduces total annual energy loads associated with heating and cooling, it also flattens the electric demand curve by eliminating the extreme summer peak electric supply requirements. However, heat pumps and resistive heating alone will not be sufficient for the electrification of industrial heat. This because in several processes higher temperatures are required which cannot be achieved with these types of equipment. For example, for the production of ethylene via steam cracking, temperatures as high as 900 °C are required. Hence, drastically new processes are required. Nevertheless, power-to-heat is expected to be the first step in the electrification of the chemical industry with an expected large-scale implementation by 2025. == Economic and geopolitical aspects ==

(working towards a low-carbon economy) while still growing their economy. This is called eco-economic decoupling. A shift in energy sources has the potential to redefine relations and dependencies between countries, stakeholders and companies. Countries or land owners with resources – fossil or renewable – face massive losses or gains depending on the development of any energy transition. In 2021, energy costs reached 13% of global gross domestic product. Global rivalries have contributed to the driving forces of the economics behind the low carbon energy transition. Technological innovations developed within a country have the potential to become an economic force. Influences The energy transition discussion is heavily influenced by contributions from the fossil fuel industries. One way that oil companies are able to continue their work despite growing environmental, social and economic concerns is by lobbying local and national governments. Historically, the fossil fuel lobby has been highly successful in limiting regulations. From 1988 to 2005, Exxon Mobil, one of the largest oil companies in the world, spent nearly $16 million in anti-climate change lobbying and providing misleading information about climate change to the general public. The fossil fuel industry acquires significant support through the existing banking and investment structure. The concept that the industry should no longer be financially supported has led to the social movement known as divestment. Divestment is defined as the removal of investment capital from stocks, bonds or funds in oil, coal and gas companies for both moral and financial reasons. Banks, investing firms, governments, universities, institutions and businesses are all facing pressure from the divestment movement and many, such as Rockefeller Brothers Fund, the University of California, New York City and more, have begun to reduce their investments in fossil fuels. In 2024 the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) projected that by 2050, over half of the world's energy will be carried by electricity and over three-quarters of the global energy mix will be from renewables. Although overtaken by both biomass and clean hydrogen, fossil fuels were still projected to supply 12% of energy. The transition is expected to reshape geopolitical power by reducing reliance on long-distance fossil fuel trade and enhancing the importance of regional energy markets. Oil prices and international conflict Higher oil prices are linked to fewer conflicts started by oil-producing countries. When oil prices rise from relatively low to relatively high levels, the expected number of military disputes between countries drops by about half. The evidence also shows that when oil prices are low, oil-producing countries are more likely to enter conflicts with other oil-producing countries. This suggests that the global shift away from fossil fuels may not automatically lead to more peace among oil-producing states and, at least in the short term, could even increase the risk of conflict. The transition away from fossil fuels may have complex security implications for major oil producers. Contrary to the 'pacification' hypothesis that suggests low oil revenue leads to peace. Historical data from 1960 to 2014 suggests that periods of declining oil prices are associated with higher rates of conflict initiation by petrostates. Consequently, the global energy transition may inadvertently increase the risk of regional conflicts among oil-dependent nations as they face long-term revenue declines. == Justice, social, and environmental aspects ==

A renewable energy transition can present negative social impacts for some people who rely on the existing energy economy or who are affected by mining for minerals required for the transition. Equally, the transition can provide opportunities for populations to achieve energy justice, supporting the idea of a "just transition". Energy justice frameworks ensure that equity, fairness, and human rights are integrated into the planning and implementation of energy transitions. In the energy context, distributive justice relates to the allocation of the benefits and burdens of the energy sector. This includes revenues from the energy economy, infrastructure locations, and energy costs. Urban centres commonly see increased benefits when undergoing energy transitions, while rural locations may be faced with increased burdens due to such developments. Recognition justice in the energy context focuses on acknowledging the rights and needs of groups that have been historically marginalised or excluded from energy decision-making. Recognising and interacting with these governance systems is considered necessary to fulfill this dimension of justice. Energy justice is also closely associated with the energy democracy concept, which seeks to empower communities through local ownership and control of a renewable-focused energy sector. In an energy democracy, individuals move beyond passive energy consumers to become "energy citizens".'''''' Use of local energy sources may stabilise and stimulate some local economies, create opportunities for energy trade between communities, states and regions, and increase energy security. An example of energy democracy implementation was seen in Mauritius' Power Shift Campaign, where solar panels were installed on local farmers' greenhouse roofs. These supplied energy to the community and provided an additional stream of income for the farmers, improving local livelihoods and diversifying the economy. Energy transitions may exacerbate energy insecurity for low-income households or communities of colour. Costs associated with renewable energy infrastructure are typically passed on to consumers, which disproportionately affects low-income households who already spend higher proportions of their income onenergy. Households of colour and low-income families are also statistically more likely to live in energy-inefficient housing, increasing the burden of rising energy prices. In regions which have been historically based upon fossil-fuel industries, the tax base may be significantly impacted; in Boone County, West Virginia, the decline in revenue from the coal industry forced the closure of schools and cuts to public services such as health and transport. Industry loss, without replacement, can lead to the "out-migration" of young people, altering the social demography of affected communities. Community job loss is also linked to increased suicide and homicide rates, while public health outcomes may deteriorate. This broken system perpetuates the poverty and vulnerability that decreases the adaptive capacity of coal mining communities. Increasing energy prices resulting from an energy transition may negatively impact developing countries including Vietnam and Indonesia. Increased mining for lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, and other critical minerals needed for expansion of renewable energy infrastructure has created increased environmental conflict and environmental justice issues for some communities. Labour A large portion of the global workforce works directly or indirectly for the fossil fuel economy. Moreover, many other industries are currently dependent on unsustainable energy sources (such as the steel industry or cement and concrete industry). Transitioning these workforces during the rapid period of economic change requires considerable forethought and planning. The international labor movement has advocated for a just transition that addresses these concerns. Recently, an energy crisis is upon the nations of Europe as a result of dependence on Russia's natural gas, which was cut off during the Russia-Ukraine war. This goes to show that humanity is still heavily dependent on fossil fuel energy sources and care should be taken to have a smooth transition, less energy-shortage shocks cripple the very efforts to effectively energise the transition. ==Risks and barriers==

Amongst the key issues to consider in relation to the pace of the global transition to renewables is how well individual electric companies are able to adapt to the changing reality of the power sector. For example, to date, the uptake of renewables by electric utilities has remained slow, hindered by their continued investment in fossil fuel generation capacity. Incomplete regulations on clean energy uptake and concerns about electricity shortages have been identified as key barriers to the energy transition in coal-dependent, fast developing economies such as Vietnam. == Examples by country ==

From 2000 to 2012 coal was the source of energy with the total largest growth. The use of oil and natural gas also had considerable growth, followed by hydropower and renewable energy. Renewable energy grew at a rate faster than any other time in history during this period. The demand for nuclear energy decreased, partly in reaction to a number of high-profile accidents (Three Mile Island in 1979, Chernobyl in 1986, and Fukushima in 2011) but also due to the rising cost of nuclear energy which has made it more expensive than all utility scale alternatives. More recently, consumption of coal has declined relative to low carbon energy. Coal dropped from about 29% of the global total primary energy consumption in 2015 to 27% in 2017, and non-hydro renewables were up to about 4% from 2%. Asia China The Fourteenth Five-Year Plan placed increased emphasis on the green transition as essential to China's pursuit of high-quality and sustainable growth. India India has set renewable energy goals to transition 50% of its total energy consumption into renewable sources in the Paris climate accords. As of 2022 the Central Electricity Authority are well on track of achieving their goals, producing 160 GW electricity from clean sources like solar, wind, hydro power and nuclear power plants, this is 40% of its total capacity. India is ranked third on Ernst and Young's renewable energy country attractive index behind the US and China. Hydro electric power plants are a major part of India's energy infrastructure since the days of its independence in 1947. Former prime Minister Jawahar Lal Nehru called them the " temples of modern India" and believed them to be key drivers of modernity and industrialism for the nascent republic. Notable examples of hydro power stations include the 2400 MW Tehri hydropower complex, the 1960 MW Koyna hydroelectric project and the 1670 MW Srisailam Dam. Recently, India has given due importance to emerging renewable technologies like solar power plants and wind farms. They house 3 of the world's top 5 solar farms, including world's largest 2255 MW Bhadla Solar Park in and world's second-largest solar park of 2000 MW Pavgada Solar Park and 100 MW Kurnool Ultra mega solar park. While there has been positive change, air pollution from coal still kills many people and India has to cut down its reliance on traditional coal based power production as it still accounts for around 50% of its energy production. India is also moving towards its goal for electrification of the automotive industry, aiming to have at least 30% EV ownership among private vehicles by 2030. Vietnam Vietnam has led the Southeast Asia in solar and wind uptake, achieving about 20 GW in 2022 from almost zero in 2017. Thailand has the highest number of EV registrations, with 218,000 in 2022. The energy transition in Southeast Asia can be summarized as: Challenging, achievable, and interdependent. This implies that while there are obstacles, feasibility largely relies on international support. Thanks to a relatively more conducive investment environment, Vietnam is poised to a faster energy transition than some other ASEAN members Europe European Union The European Green Deal is a set of policy initiatives by the European Commission with the overarching aim of making Europe climate neutral in 2050. An impact assessed plan will also be presented to increase the EU's greenhouse gas emission reductions target for 2030 to at least 50% and towards 55% compared with 1990 levels. The plan is to review each existing law on its climate merits, and also introduce new legislation on the circular economy, building renovation, biodiversity, farming and innovation. Germany Germany has played an outsized role in the transition away from fossil fuels and nuclear power to renewables. The energy transition in Germany is known as die Energiewende (literally, "the energy turn") indicating a turn away from old fuels and technologies to new one. The key policy document outlining the Energiewende was published by the German government in September 2010, some six months before the Fukushima nuclear accident; legislative support was passed in September 2010. The policy has been embraced by the German federal government and has resulted in a huge expansion of renewables, particularly wind power. Germany's share of renewables has increased from around 5% in 1999 to 17% in 2010, reaching close to the OECD average of 18% usage of renewables. In 2022 Germany has a share of 46,2 % and surpassed the OECD average. A large driver for this increase in the shares of renewables energy are decreases in cost of capital. Germany boasts some of the lowest cost of capitals for renewable solar and wind onshore energy worldwide. In 2021 the International Renewable Energy Agency reported capital costs of around 1.1% and 2.4% for solar and wind onshore. This constitutes a significant decrease from previous numbers in the early 2000s, where capital costs hovered around 5.1% and 4.5% respectively. This decrease in capital costs was influenced by a variety of economic and political drivers. Following the 2008 financial crisis, Germany eased the refinancing regulations on banks by giving out cheap loans with low interest rates in order to stimulate the economy again. During this period, the industry around renewable energies also started to experience learning effects in manufacturing, project organisation as well as financing thanks to rising investment and order volumes. This coupled with various forms of subsidies contributed to a large reduction of the capital cost and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar and onshore wind power. As the technologies have matured and become integral parts of the existing sociotechnical systems it is to be expected that in the future, experience effects and general interest rates will be key determinants for the cost-competitiveness of these technologies. Nonetheless, for the first time in more than ten years, electricity prices for household customers fell at the beginning of 2015. Switzerland Due to the high share of hydroelectricity (59.6%) and nuclear power (31.7%) in electricity production, Switzerland's per capita energy-related emissions are 28% lower than the European Union average and roughly equal to those of France. On 21 May 2017, Swiss voters accepted the new Energy Act establishing the 'energy strategy 2050'. The aims of the energy strategy 2050 are: to reduce energy consumption; to increase energy efficiency; and to promote renewable energies (such as water, solar, wind and geothermal power as well as biomass fuels). The Energy Act of 2006 forbids the construction of new nuclear power plants in Switzerland. To help in reaching this statutory goal national energy policy is mainly focusing on the country's off-shore wind power and delivering new and advanced nuclear power. The increase in national renewable power – particularly from biomass – together with the 20% of electricity generated by nuclear power in the United Kingdom meant that by 2019 low carbon British electricity had overtaken that generated by fossil fuels. In order to meet the net zero target energy networks must be strengthened. Electricity is only a part of energy in the United Kingdom, so natural gas used for industrial and residential heat and petroleum used for transport in the United Kingdom must also be replaced by either electricity or another form of low-carbon energy, such as sustainable bioenergy crops or green hydrogen. Although the need for the energy transition is not disputed by any major political party, in 2020 there is debate about how much of the funding to try and escape the COVID-19 recession should be spent on the transition, and how many jobs could be created, for example in improving energy efficiency in British housing. Some believe that due to post-covid government debt that funding for the transition will be insufficient. Brexit may significantly affect the energy transition, but this is unclear . The government is urging UK business to sponsor the climate change conference in 2021, possibly including energy companies but only if they have a credible short-term plan for the energy transition. ==See also==