Situation in 2001–2004: Option 2 partially adopted By 2001 it had become evident that the SSTO Option 3 would be too difficult in practice (at least given the funding that Congress was willing to allocate) and the X-33, X-34 and VentureStar were cancelled in that year. Option 1, substantially upgrading the Shuttle system, had also been abandoned. The Study had shown convincingly that this could not be made cost-effective: "... it is clear that the major cost savings targeted as a goal for this study only accrue in architectures employing new vehicles." In practice, then, it was only Option 2 that was ultimately followed up, though not completely.
Delta II was retained.
Atlas II was upgraded with a Russian
RD-180 engine and flew as the
Atlas III in 2000. The expensive
Titan IV would be retired in 2005 and replaced by a new heavy launcher introduced in 2004, although this new launcher would be the
Delta IV Heavy (26 tonnes to
Mir orbit), not the more powerful triple RD-180 version (38 tonnes to
Mir orbit) proposed for the Option 2 system. With these upgrades the
Atlas and
Delta families would continue to launch American uncrewed spacecraft for some time to come; and the ESA
ATV (launched on the European
Ariane 5) would be ready to take over supplying cargo to the International Space Station three years before the Shuttle was retired. None of these vehicles, however, would be capable of ferrying crew to and from the ISS.
Crewed spaceplanes not reconsidered Even though the problem of assuring post-Shuttle crew access to the ISS was now becoming more urgent, NASA did not revisit the Option 2 combination of a crewed spaceplane with an expendable launcher. The proposed
X-38 Space Station 'lifeboat', while looking superficially similar to the HL-20, would have been ferried up as cargo in the Shuttle's payload bay, and used once or not at all; even this was cancelled in 2002. On the other hand, the military
Boeing X-37, while operational from 2010, was much smaller (5 tonnes at launch), uncrewed, and never intended to support Space Station operations. NASA was able to reject all three of the options for post-Shuttle ISS crew access presented in the Study because a fourth option had recently become available: using the Russian
Soyuz program infrastructure for all crew transport, a possibility that had not been considered in the Study.
The fourth option: Soyuz–Progress In 1993, while the Access to Space Study was being created, several developments occurred in quick succession that would lead to greatly increased Russian cooperation with NASA. As a result, the status of Russian cooperation was still uncertain while the Study was being written between January 1993 and January 1994. The terms of reference allowed the authors to use Russian companies as equipment suppliers (notably for engines); but they were to plan for a 'worst case', and not rely on Roscosmos, the newly established Russian
Federal Space Agency, for finance or services. Crew access was therefore assumed in the Study to be provided only by the US, Europe, Canada and Japan, the original Space Station
Freedom consortium as it was in January 1993 when the Study was commissioned. Initially Soyuz–Progress was not considered reliable: "From the beginning, challenges arose with Russia’s participation. Many promises were made by high ranking Russian government officials .... Most were not kept. ... Russia’s ability to provide sufficient
Soyuz 'lifeboat' spacecraft and
Progress 'reboost' spacecraft also was questioned. Funding for Russia’s space program was under severe stress ..." The SLI was much less structured than the Access to Space Study with its three clearly defined alternatives. The SLI would start with "Hundreds of concepts"; then "In the program's first two years, a range of risk reduction activities and milestone reviews will gradually narrow viable reusable space transportation systems to two or three candidates." Hopes were high: "With new technologies and operations ... the cost of delivering a payload will drop dramatically from today's price of $10,000 per pound."
HL-20 and HL-42 revival impossible under SLI These research priorities explain why the HL-20 and HL-42 programs were never revived by NASA. If even the SSTO X-33 (with its
aerospike engine and innovative all-metal thermal protection system) was considered not cutting-edge enough without a composite tank, the HL-20 and HL-42 stood even less chance of being built with government money: • With their expendable launchers they were very far from bringing the desired tenfold reduction in launch costs; • They had been deliberately designed not to use any breakthrough technology; • Their job was already being done by Soyuz. In these circumstances there was no chance that they would be developed further by NASA. However, commercial space transportation companies would be quite free to develop the HL-20 and HL-42 designs if they wished; NASA now welcomed commercial participation. But companies doing so would risk facing competition from SLI itself. If NASA-funded research really did produce breakthrough technology with $1000 per pound launch costs (a tenfold reduction) then spaceplanes with expendable launchers could never be competitive.
SLI discontinued in 2004 By 2004 it had become evident that NASA would never be given sufficient funds for the type of high-risk, high-return program advocated by Bekey: "well-funded parallel component developments", so that if some lines of advance failed, as they inevitably would, still one of them might succeed and bring immense rewards – perhaps even reducing costs to as little as $100 per pound. This is the combination that finally, in January 2016, won a six-launch
Commercial Resupply Services contract with NASA. ==See also==