First publication (1964) Kardashev presented for the first time a classification of civilizations according to the level of the rate of their energy consumption, or ability to harness power, in an article entitled
Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations, published in 1964 first in Russian in the March–April issue of the
Astronomicheskii Zhurnal, A
civilization known as "Type I" has achieved a technological level close to the one attained on Earth at the time Kardashev's article was submitted (December 1963), with a rate of energy consumption evaluated at about 4 × 1012
watts (W). A civilization known as "Type II" would surpass the first by fourteen orders of magnitude, matching the entire power emitted by the Sun in about 3,200 years, i.e, Earth's home
star's "output" at that time, predicted at 4 × 1026 W. Finally, a civilization known as "Type III" reaches the milepost set in 5,800 years when humanity's rate of energy consumption is predicted by the author to match the power emitted by the approximated 1011 stars in the Milky Way galaxy, which involves harnessing power of up to an estimated 4 × 1037 W. Kardashev then examined the characteristics of a transmission from an artificial source. He mentioned the two cosmic radio sources discovered in 1963 by the
California Institute of Technology, CTA-21 and
CTA-102 in particular, which would have characteristics close to those of a presumed artificial source. The most suitable region of the galaxy for observing Type II and III civilizations would then be the
Galactic Center, due to the high density of the stellar population it harbors. He then recommended that the search programs for such artificial sources should focus on other nearby galaxies, such as the
Andromeda Galaxy, the
Magellanic Clouds,
M87, or
Centaurus A. Kardashev concluded his paper by noting that the possible discovery of even the simplest organisms on
Mars would increase the likelihood that Type II civilizations exist in the galaxy. in which he stated that: in 2011 according to the BP
Statistical Review According to the Soviet astronomer, the Earth's civilization would be too young to be able to contact another civilization that would certainly be more advanced; the
Solar System is too young with its five billion years, and the first ancestors of today's man appeared only 6 million years ago at the earliest; the oldest celestial objects are between 10 and 14 billion years old; it is clear that the other civilizations are incomparably older than the human civilization. Therefore, the knowledge of these civilizations must be greater than Earth's, and, he reasoned, they must surely be aware of what humans are doing. For this supercivilization, the science of "cosmic ethnography" must be highly developed. However, the fact that
no contact has been made so far could be explained by
ethical considerations of these civilizations. Based on this principle, Kardashev sees only two possible evolutionary scenarios for a supercivilization: natural evolution and
evolution after contact with other extraterrestrial civilizations. He considers more likely the scenario based on contact between two highly developed, technologically and culturally advanced civilizations; this scenario, which he calls the "Urbanization Hypothesis", would result in the regrouping and unification of several civilizations within a few compact regions of the
Universe. and omnidirectional emission up to 21 cm. In the event of contact, humanity would see progress in all areas of society in order to join this supercivilization; it is also expected that an
ethnographic conservatory would be created on Earth. • The scenario of a unification on the scale of the
galactic cluster has only a 20% probability of realization. Kardashev advises to observe the
Virgo cluster (especially
M87) and other clusters in a similar way as in the first scenario. The consequences for humanity are the same as in the first scenario. • The scenario of a unification on the scale of galaxies has only a 10% probability. To confirm it, we must study the galactic centers, both of the
Milky Way and of neighboring galaxies (such as
M31,
M33), according to a procedure similar to that of the first scenario. The consequences for humanity are the same as in the first scenario. • The scenario of a complete
colonization of space has no probability of being realized according to Kardashev because if it were realizable then "they" would already be on Earth; yet this is not the case. However, in the case of a contact, the consequences on humanity are the same as in the first scenario. • This scenario assumes that all civilizations would have destroyed themselves before any contact. Kardashev estimates the probability of this to be 10%. Humanity should be able to detect ancient megastructures in the vicinity of the
nearest stars. As a result, no contact with humanity can take place. • The last scenario suggests that we are the first or the only ones in the Universe. Kardashev estimates its probability at 10%. Only
exobiology can confirm or falsify such a scenario. We can imagine a potential
contact in the distant future, and then the consequences would be similar to those of the other five scenarios.
Fourth publication (1997) describing the
expansion of the Universe since the
Big Bang, there may be planets older than the Earth, capable of harboring supercivilizations. In the article
Cosmology and Civilizations published in 1997, Kardashev reiterates the need to carefully observe astronomical objects with strong radiation in order to detect supercivilizations. However, the discovery of a civilization at a stage of development similar to ours is unlikely. The existence of such supercivilizations is made possible by the fact that
life on Earth is recent compared to the
age of the Universe (8 × 109 years before the
formation of the Solar System). He then examines the conditions for the appearance of life on cosmological time scales. Assuming the rate of evolution of life on Earth and considering the age of the Universe, it is reasonable to assume that a civilization could have reached our level of technological development in 6 × 109 years. Such civilizations can be observed in nearby regions, since the farther away we observe, the younger the objects are. Recent discoveries of
sources of intense radiation deadly to life show that life could have flourished under cover for the time necessary for its appearance and maintenance. Another argument for the possibility of a very old supercivilization is that most of the objects that could be megastructures have not yet been discovered and mapped. In addition, 95% of the
matter remains invisible or can only be inferred by the gravitational influence it produces. According to Kardashev, it is essential to focus our search tools on new objects radiating at a wavelength of a few microns to a few millimeters, and at a temperature of 3 to 300
K, which is characteristic of large structures of solid matter. It would then be possible to detect structures belonging to Type II in our galaxy or in those nearby. Type III structures can also be observed at large cosmological distances. Kardashev recalls that a study was conducted on 3000 sources of the
IRAS catalog from the four directions of the sky. Two temperature bands were targeted: from 110 to 120 K and from 280 to 290 K. The analysis showed that the 110–120 K sources are clustered in the
Galactic plane and in its center. Kardashev explains that only more powerful observations in the
infrared and
submillimeter range can reveal possible artificial sources of radiation. He then refers to projects that he has proposed, in particular that of putting into orbit a
cryogenic space telescope (the
Millimetron Project). According to Kardashev, these results, combined with those of other research on the age of certain cosmic objects, suggest that civilizations dating from 6 to 8 billion years ago may exist in our galaxy. It is likely that they have long since discovered our own civilization, a hypothesis that could answer the question posed by
Enrico Fermi when he formulated his
paradox: "Where are they?". Without the discovery of artificial sources, however, Shklovsky's theory that civilizations self-destruct as a result of large-scale social conflicts would be proven. Kardashev mentions another hypothesis that, in his opinion, is capable of explaining the dynamics of the supercivilizations: the "feedback effect" (theorized by
Sebastian von Hoerner in 1975), which is based on the
hypothesis that at a high technological level, civilizations tend to converge rather than to isolate themselves. The distance between supercivilizations could then be determined by half the time of the technological evolution of the oldest civilization, which would be about 3 to 4 billion years. On the other hand, this supercivilization may not have been present in our galaxy for a long time. Kardashev concludes by saying that since the
expansion of the Universe is infinite, the number and lifetime of such supercivilizations are also infinite. == Categories defined by Kardashev ==