MarketClimate change in Turkey
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Climate change in Turkey

Heatwaves and droughts in Turkey are the main hazards due to its climate getting hotter. The temperature has risen by more than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), exceeding 50 °C (122 °F) in 2025, and there is more extreme weather. The geography effects vary in different parts of the country. Water supply to some cities is threatened.

Greenhouse gas emissions
, are the largest source of greenhouse gas. Coal, cars and lorries vent more than a third of Turkey's six hundred million tonnes The nation's coal-fired power stations emit the most carbon dioxide, and other significant sources are road vehicles running on petrol or diesel. After coal and oil the third most polluting fuel is fossil gas; which is burnt in Turkey's gas-fired power stations, homes and workplaces. Much methane is belched by livestock; cows alone produce half of the greenhouse gas from agriculture in Turkey. Economists say that major reasons for Turkey's greenhouse gas emissions are subsidies for coal-fired power stations, and the lack of a price on carbon pollution. The Chamber of Engineers says that without subsidies coal-fired power stations would be gradually shutdown. The Right to Clean Air Platform argues that there should be a legal limit on fine airborne dust, much of which comes from car and lorry exhaust. Low-emission zones in cities would reduce both local air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions. Turkey's share of current global greenhouse gas emissions is slightly over 1%. Annual per person emissions are six and a half tonnes, which is around the global average. Although greenhouse gas totals are reported some details, such as the split between cars and lorries, are not published. The government supports reforestation, electric vehicle manufacturing and low-carbon electricity generation; and is aiming for net zero carbon emissions by 2053. But its long-term plan omits coal phase-out, and there is no clear pathway to net zero. Turkey's nationally determined contribution to the Paris Agreement on limiting climate change is 643 million tonnes in 2035, which has been criticised as an increase on current emissions. In 2024 environment minister Murat Kurum said that by Turkey's net zero year of 2053 half of primary energy would be from renewables and 30% from nuclear, but did not explain how the remaining 20% could be decarbonized. Although carbon emission trading is authorized to start in 2026, unless Turkey's climate and energy policies are changed the 2053 net zero target may be missed. Turkey will host the 2026 United Nations Climate Change Conference. Estimates ahead of official inventory Climate Trace estimate 584 million tonnes (Mt) of GHG was emitted in 2025, made up of 569 Mt excluding land use, land-use change, and forestry, and 15 Mt from LULUCF. Their estimate of 72 Mt of GHG from waste in 2023 and 2024 and 2025 is much higher than the official figure of 15 Mt in 2023 and 2024, but the reason is unclear. Official figures do not detail individual sources, but the largest in 2025 according to Climate Trace were ZETES power stations, Istanbul Airport, Cenal power station, İÇDAŞ Biga power station and Isdemir Payas steel plant. The Transnational Institute estimated 2023 military emissions at 4.7 million tonnes, but this estimate may not have used official NATO methodology. Monitoring, reporting and verification Monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) includes sharing information and lessons learned. The Directorate of Climate Change and Turkish government's Statistical Institute (Turkstat) follow the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines, so use production-based GHG accounting to compile the country's greenhouse gas inventory. Using consumption-based accounting would give a similar total. Turkstat sends the data to the UNFCCC annually during the second year following the reported year, for example 2023 emissions were reported in 2025 in the annual National Inventory Document (NID) and Common Reporting Tables (CRT). In years when a Biennial transparency report (BTR) is submitted to the UNFCCC the data may be included with the report, as was done in 2024 with Turkey's first BTR. Emissions from fuels sold in the country for international aviation and shipping are accounted separately in reports to the UNFCCC, and are not included in a country's total.and although road transport is a key category, it is not split between cars and lorries as is done in some countries. In 2021 the UNFCCC asked Turkey why it reported negligible indirect GHGs (carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, non-methane volatile organic compounds and sulfur oxides) in 2018. Greenhouse gas sources Turkey emitted 585 Mt of GHG in 2024. Per-person emissions are around the world average, at 6.8 t in 2024. Turkey's emissions can be looked at from different perspectives to the standard IPCC classification: for example a 2021 study by Izmir University of Economics estimated that food, "from farm to fork", accounts for about a third of national emissions, which is similar to the global emissions share of food. Fossil fuels Burning coal in Turkey was the largest contributor to fossil-fuel emissions in 2021, followed by oil and natural gas. mostly through electricity generation, followed by transport. Carbon capture and storage is not economically viable, since the country has no carbon pricing. The GHG emission intensity of energy consumption is higher than in the EU. From 2023 Turkey expects to greatly increase gas production. In 2021, IEA head Fatih Birol called for fossil-fuel producing countries to include limits on methane leaks in their climate pledges, for example the United States is doing this. Production of public heat and electricity emitted 148 megatonnes of e in 2021, around the average for G20 countries. Investment in wind and solar is hampered by subsidies for coal. . Coal is still burnt to heat older buildings in cities. Subsidised coal burnt by poor families contributes a bit to climate change, and more importantly its soot pollutes local air. Residential fuel, such as natural gas and coal, contributed 50 Mt e in 2021. Coal-fired power stations pollute but are subsidized.|alt=white smoke rises into a blue sky from 3 large chimneys Turkey's coal-fired power stations are the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey at 103 Mt (about 20% of national emissions – see pie chart) in 2021. Over a kilogram of is emitted for every KWh of electricity generated in Turkey by coal-fired power stations. If operated at the targeted capacity factor, planned units at Afşin Elbistan would add over 60 Mt per year, more than one-tenth of the country's entire emissions. Almost all coal burnt in power stations is local lignite or imported bituminous (hard) coal. Coal analysis of Turkish lignite shows that it is high in ash and moisture, low in energy value and high in emission intensity; When carbon dioxide () from coal used by industry and buildings, and methane emissions from coal mining, are added to those from coal-fired electricity generation, over 30% of Turkey's annual emissions come from coal. In 2021, burning coal emitted 153 Mt in total. Eren Holding (via Eren Enerji's coal-fired ZETES power stations) emits over 2% of Turkey's GHG, and İÇDAŞ emits over 1% from its Bekirli coal-fired power stations. Emissions of black carbon are not published for individual power stations, Electricity generation from gas tends to increase when hydropower is limited by droughts. The cost of natural gas is expected to fall around 2026 with the expiry of expensive import agreements with Russia and Iran, and increasing production from the Sakarya Gas Field in the Black Sea. Transport fuel , one of the few major European cities without a low-emission zone. Transport emitted 91 Mt of e in 2021, Fuel quality and emissions standards for new cars are less strict than those in the EU; and in 2019 about 45% of cars were over 10 years old and energy-inefficient. Domestic flights emitted 3 Mt of e in 2021 Industry In 2021, Turkey's industrial sector emitted 75 Mt (13%) of GHG. Some sugar factories, such as some owned by Türkşeker and Konya Seker, burn coal for the heat needed to make sugar and sometimes to generate electricity. Some industrial companies reach the Global Reporting Initiative GRI 305 emissions standard. Iron and steel The European steel industry has complained that steel imports from Turkey are unfair competition, because they are not subject to a carbon tax, and alleges that the natural gas used to produce some steel is subsidised. Turkish steel, primarily from minimills, averages about one tonne of per tonne of steel produced. three steelworks—Erdemir, İsdemir and Kardemir—use blast furnaces and thus emit more than those using electric arc furnaces. The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) includes a carbon tariff on Turkish steel produced in blast furnaces, but the CBAM could help arc furnaces compete against products such as Chinese steel. Companies are investing in solar power in Turkey. Cement Turkey is the sixth-largest cement producer in the world and the largest in Europe, and by far the largest exporter to the EU. Cement (clinker) production in 2021 emitted 44 Mt , 8% of the country's total GHG. and says that Nuh, Göltaş, and Medcem cement plants emitted more than 1 Mt each in 2023. Nuh publish information about their emissions and say some of their cement is low emission, and Medcem publishes some figures whereas Göltaş has less GHG info. most producers report about 0.8 tonnes CO2eq per tonne cement. Turkey's construction sector contracted at the end of 2018 and so used less cement. Cement producers in the EU have to buy EU carbon credits, and say the CBAM is needed to protect them from unfair competition from Turkish companies as they pay no carbon price. The CBAM could be up to 50% on the cement price. The proportion of clinker in publicly procured cement is being reduced. but have very low confidence in the accuracy of their estimate. Kazan Soda Elektrik and Eti Soda have published figures for 2019 and 2021 respectively. Agriculture and fishing Agriculture accounted for 72 Mt which was 13% of Turkey's total 2021 GHG, including 61% of its methane emissions and 78% of its nitrous oxide emissions.Cattle emit almost half of the GHG from agriculture. Turks eat an average of of beef per person each year (which is more than the world average), and the country produced 1 million tonnes of beef in 2021. VAT on meat and dairy is 1% like other "staple foods". Being ruminants sheep, goats and cattle belch methane. Fertilizers can emit the GHG nitrous oxide, but estimates of the effects of government policy on the agricultural and waste sectors' emissions are lacking. Turkey is one of the top ten nitrous oxide emitters. Production of plastic, such as for agriculture, may release significant GHG in future. National GHG inventories do not yet include bottom trawling, as the IPCC has yet to issue accounting guidelines. In 2024 the government said that farming subsidies would be "reviewed through the lens of climate change". with almost half of that from the tenth of waste sent to unmanaged landfills. (part year to November) It is unclear why there is such an enormous difference. Landfilling is the most common waste-disposal method. Climate Trace estimate Odayeri (even though it has a biogas facility) on the European side of Istanbul to be the biggest waste single emitter at over 6 Mt in 2023.Organic waste sent to landfills emits methane, but the country is working to improve sustainable waste and resource management. One third of organic waste is composted, but others argue for incineration. ==Impacts on the natural environment==
Impacts on the natural environment
According to Boğaziçi University's Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, human-caused climate change in Turkey started in the 1970s. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project#CMIP_Phase_6 (CMIP6) models it well, however the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble Mean is too coarse a resolution (2° × 1.5°) for the higher parts of Turkey. One example of climate change's impact will be on the distribution of rainfall: the descending edge of the Hadley cell (an area of circulation near the equator) may move northwards towards Turkey, whose southern border is around 36 degrees north, and this may reduce rainfall in the south of the country. Temperature and weather changes Turkey is forecast to be more severely affected than many other countries, but effects vary considerably across its regions. the OECD thinks that with a low-carbon scenario the rise can be kept below 1.7 degrees. The weather is becoming more extreme, and in 2021 there were extensive wildfires in the south and floods in the north. Wildfires in Turkey have increased due to climate change, and wind speed is predicted to increase throughout the Marmara region. Seasonally, there may be more precipitation in the winter, but 50% less in spring and autumn. Heatwaves and droughts are increasing, at least in some parts of the country. and will be gone before the end of the century.|alt=not very sharp snow-capped mountain peak in the distance, under a blue sky with a few small clouds Climate change has reduced rainfall in some regions and has made it less regular, which has put stress on hydroelectric power plants. Between 1979 and 2019 annual precipitation fluctuated from over 60 cm to under 45 cm, Charging for water used by agriculture has been suggested. Producing beef in Turkey needs almost half as much again water as the global average, but although climate change is causing droughts in Turkey, feed for cattle is subsidized. Sea level rise Over 200 thousand people live in areas at risk if sea level rises by 1 meter. The Aegean rose by an estimated 4 mm a year in the early 21st century. Istanbul is at risk from sea level rise; for example, Kadıkoy metro station is threatened with flooding. Ecosystems In coastal areas permanent wetlands, croplands and grassland are affected. the largest remaining are the glaciers on Mount Ararat and these are forecast to be gone by 2065, as they are melting much faster than mountain glaciers in many other parts of the world. Soil erosion continues and is forecast to increase. The rise in sea surface temperature is one of the causes of marine mucilage in the Sea of Marmara, and is expected to further change marine life in Turkish waters. The sea surface temperature of the Black Sea has increased by 2 degrees, and there are concerns of brown bears not hibernating. Some white storks no longer migrate south in winter. ==Impacts on people==
Impacts on people
Economic impacts Although climate related economic losses are much lower than in the EU they increased over the early 2020s. Environment Minister Murat Kurum estimated in 2021 that losses due to disasters, such as floods, caused by climate change would amount to billions of lira (hundreds of millions of dollars). The World Bank has estimated the cost and benefits of stopping net carbon emissions, but has suggested government do far more detailed planning. For companies which responded to the Carbon Disclosure Project in 2022 the main climate change risk to their businesses is carbon pricing, such as the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. According to the United Nations Development Programme, decreasing rainfall is exacerbating the wide social and regional disparities within Turkey, and the gap between south-eastern provinces and the rest of the country is widening. There are over 3 million refugees of the Syrian Civil War in Turkey. Agriculture Unless global emissions are greatly reduced agriculture in Turkey, such as wheat, is expected to be severely affected after the late 2030s, especially in areas with rain fed agriculture. Water is lost through evaporation due to outdated irrigation techniques used by the Southeastern Anatolia Project, increasing the risk of severe water shortage. Damage to agriculture is predicted to greatly increase, for example due to "false spring" germination or blossoming followed by a cold snap. Vineyards in Thrace are being affected. A significant decline in agricultural production is transmitted throughout the economy and reduces national welfare. More agritech co-operation with the EU and UAE has been suggested. Hydropower Reduced precipitation and hydroelectricity in Turkey is forecast, and Turkish dams in the Tigris and Euphrates river basins are reducing cross-border flow and exacerbating drought due to climate change in Iraq. To conserve hydropower, solar power is being added next to the hydropower. Fisheries and aquaculture may no longer grow properly in Turkish waters.|alt=small silver fish in open polystyrene boxes labelled "Karadeniz hamsi kilo 7 lira" Warming seas and invasive marine species, such as from the Red Sea, have received little media coverage. Fishing in the Black Sea is sensitive to the impacts of climate change, and according to the Turkish Marine Research Foundation all Turkish seas will be affected. Lake Van is shrinking due to climate change. Tourism Tourism in Turkey may become too hot in the summer for some people, for example Antalya could become too hot for some visitors during some school holidays. Development of ski resorts in the Central Taurus and eastern Black Sea region mountains may not be possible. Health impacts Climate change may impact health in Turkey, for example due to increased heatwaves, especially elderly and chronically ill people and children. Wildfires in Turkey were the worst in the history of the republic in 2021 and killed several people and injured hundreds. Droughts risk mosquito borne diseases. 1,350 people died because of floods between 1970 and 2014 in Turkey and about 2 million people were affected by those floods. Urban heat islands are also a problem. Because of the increase in temperature, existing buildings will need more energy for cooling. == Mitigation ==
Mitigation
The government said in November 2024 that it was dedicated to global efforts to limit temperature increases to 1.5 degrees, A long-term climate strategy was published in 2024 but omits coal phase-out.The government intended to complete its review of long-term (2030 to 2050) policy, and publish a new National Climate Change Action Plan with sector specific targets and monitoring mechanisms by 2023, but as of 2025 the plan ends in 2030. Turkey argues that as a developing country it should be exempt from net emission reduction targets, but other countries do not agree. and cement. Public and private sector working groups discussed the European Green Deal, and the Trade Ministry published an action plan in response to its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. A green taxonomy is being developed. Path to net zero can take out. There is some correlation with the economic history of Turkey, such as a dip during the 2001 economic crisis. Turkey is aiming for net zero carbon emissions by 2053. The World Bank has estimated the cost and benefits, but has suggested government do far more detailed planning. The long-term climate change strategy published by the Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change in 2024 does not specifically mention coal, but says that the "infrastructure of existing fossil fuel-based facilities will be reviewed". Energy Emissions could be reduced considerably by switching from coal to existing gas-fired power stations: as there is enough generating capacity to allow the decommissioning of all coal-fired power stations and still meet peak energy demand, as long as hydropower as well as gas is used to meet peaks in demand. By the mid-2020s the gas price is forecast to have fallen considerably, as Turkey's production from the Black Sea will be more than enough to meet national demand. However, according to a 2021 study the electricity sector is financially unable to transform itself in response to the CBAM, and "to avoid market failure, the government must step in by designing a general decarbonization program for electricity production in Turkey". A solar panel factory began production in 2020; and solar and wind power are the cheapest generating technologies, Fossil fuel subsidies risk carbon lock-in, but if they were scrapped (as suggest by environment minister Şimşek) wind and solar power could expand faster. Relying simply on battery storage would be insufficient to decarbonise electricity, as periods of high and low demand last for two to three weeks. Ramping down nuclear power in Turkey will be technically possible, at times when solar or wind increases or electricity demand drops, but would be expensive because of high fixed costs and lost sales revenue. However, after upgrading, repowering and adding a small amount of pumped-storage hydroelectricity, there are enough hydropower dams in Turkey to provide dispatchable generation to balance variable renewable energy, even allowing for more frequent droughts in Turkey in the future because of climate change. Turkey is in the top ten countries for geothermal energy. National and international investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency are being made; for example, the EBRD is supporting the installation of smart meters. Along with cement the electricity sector is forecast to be the hardest hit by the CBAM. Buildings There are almost 10 million buildings in Turkey, There is a roadmap, which says that as of 2021 three quarters of building stock is pre-21st century, that is pre energy standards. A typical residential building emits almost 50 kgCO2eq/m2/year, mostly due to the energy used by residents. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said that more could be done to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, and that tax incentives offered for this would create jobs. Such energy efficiency improvements can be made in the same programme as increasing resilience to earthquakes in Turkey. However, as of 2023 gas was subsidized. Increasing the proportion of passive houses has been suggested, as has adopting some EU building standards. Thinktank Ember said in 2023 that rooftop solar should be mandatory on new buildings, and say that installation on apartment block roofs is hindered by bureaucracy. To improve the energy efficiency of buildings it has been suggested that green building principles and technologies should be applied. Although low-energy houses, zero-energy buildings and zero carbon housing will be encouraged, As well as more insulation help for poor rural people, subsidies for communal heat pumps and solar panels have been suggested for any villages where they would be technically suitable. Owners of larger properties such as shopping centres, schools and government buildings have shown more interest in heat pumps. Direct geothermal heating (not to be confused with heat pumps) installed capacity totaled 3.5 GW thermal (GWt) in 2020, with the potential for 60 GWt. There is no data on the carbon intensity of cement. Emissions from cement production could be lessened by reducing its clinker content—for example, by making Limestone Calcined Clay Cement, which is only half clinker. The second-largest reduction could be made by switching half the fuel from hard coal and petroleum coke (petcoke) to a mixture of rubber from waste tires, refuse-derived fuel and biomass. Although the country has enough of these materials, most cement kilns (there are 54 Further decarbonisation of cement production would depend heavily on carbon capture, or in Diyarbakır Province. Transport In the 2000s transport emission intensity improved, but this gain was partially lost in the 2010s due to the growing preference for sport utility vehicles. Although Turkey has several manufacturers of electric buses and many are exported, fewer than 100 were in use in the country in 2021. A 2024 analysis said that government was prioritising vehicle production and exports over electric vehicle use. Ebikes are manufactured, but cities could be improved to make cycling in Turkey safer. Although Turkey's ferries (unlike some other countries') are still fossil-fuelled, the world's first all-electric tugboat began working in Istanbul's harbour in 2020, electric lorries are manufactured, and an electric excavator is planned for 2022. Eti Mine Works produces small quantities of lithium carbonate locally, and plans to increase production for use in batteries. A battery factory is planned by Aspilsan, which is part of Turkey's defence industry, and Ford Otosan started making electric vans in 2022. Over a quarter of a million charging stations are planned by 2030. Building codes are being changed to mandate electric car charging points in new shopping centres and car parks. As of 2024 2% of cars on the road are hybrid and 1% fully electric, but there are almost no commercial EVs. Turkey's automotive industry makes electric cars locally, which have incentives. However the special consumption tax(Turkish) is 10% or more. As well as cutting GHG, creation of a domestic electric vehicle market by TOGG is hoped to reduce vehicle running costs, create jobs, Introducing smart charging is important to avoid overloading Turkish electricity distribution networks. but higher than in oil-producing countries to the south. Taxis could be better integrated with public transport. However Istanbul taxi regulations are politically deadlocked. The central government has drafted enabling regulations for low-emission zones, but as of 2025 no municipality has created one. According to Shura three-quarters of emissions in the transport sector come from road freight transport. Sales of fossil-fuelled road vehicles will be banned from 2040. Using International Civil Aviation Organization methodology Turkish Airlines offers carbon offsets certified to Verified Carbon Standard and Gold Standard. Turkey is participating in the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation. In 2024 the UNFCCC again asked Turkey to separate international from national aviation and shipping in its inventory. Industry Restriction of Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, which limits emissions of fluorinated gases, began in 2024 aiming for 10% reduction by 2029 and 80% by 2045. Electric motors in small and medium-sized enterprises are becoming more efficient. Low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia could help with hard to decarbonise industries; such as fertilizer and petrochemicals. there are almost no supporters of the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, to provide information to investors about the risks of climate change to companies. Some manufacturers which export to the EU are adding their own solar power to reduce emissions, and the Turkish Industry and Business Association has asked the EU for funding to help strengthen alignment with the CBAM. Agriculture and fishing Climate-smart agriculture is being studied and financed, and agrivoltaics has been suggested as suitable for maize and some other shade-loving vegetables. Most marine protected areas are “Special Environmental Protection Areas”, of which 13 are marine . Carbon sinks . Turkey has 23 million hectares of forest covering quarter of the country, though over 40% is degraded woodland. Turkey's forests are its main carbon sink and offset 34 Mt of the country's emissions in 2021. However warmer and drier air in the south and west may make it difficult to sustain the present forest cover. Due to forest fires and reduced productivity due to climate change trees are becoming less of a sink but, Almost all Turkey's forest land belongs to the state and cannot be privatised. Private afforestation permits have been issued however, to encourage tree planting in areas where tree density is low. Civil society organizations, such as the Turkish Foundation for Combating Soil Erosion and the Foresters' Association of Turkey, are also encouraging reforestation. In 2019, an annual "National Forestation Day" every 11 November was established by President Erdoğan. Junipers have been suggested for reforestation because of their hardiness, but are said to need help to regrow quickly. But, according to Ege University associate professor Serdar Gökhan Senol, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry sometimes replants when it should wait for regrowth instead. In 2023 about 15 Mt was locked up in wood products. Wildfires emit carbon dioxide such as 10 Mt in 2021. Soil in Turkey contains soil organic carbon, which is estimated to total 3.5 billion tonnes at soil depth, with 36 t/ha in agricultural fields. Soil organic carbon has been mapped: with low levels of soil organic carbon increasing the risk of soil erosion. Turkey is a major producer of marble; it has been suggested that waste from the industry could capture carbon by calcium looping. Economics During the late 20th and early 21st centuries, growth of the Turkish economy, and to a lesser extent population, caused increased emissions from electricity generation, industry and construction, as described by the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. And from the 1990s to the 2010s they were correlated with electricity generation. But during the 2010s economic growth and the increase in emissions decoupled somewhat. whereas the carbon intensity of energy has fallen from 300g per kWh to 200g per kWh. In 2018, the government forecast that GHG emissions were expected to increase in parallel with GDP growth over the next decade. Once economic growth resumes after the debt crisis that began in 2018 and the country's COVID-19 recession, energy demand is also expected to grow. Nevertheless, Carbon Tracker says that it will be possible to decouple economic growth and emissions, by expanding the country's renewable-energy capacity and investing in energy efficiency with a sustainable energy policy. as richer people tend to fly more and buy gasoline-fuelled SUVs. Nevertheless 2019 studies disagree on whether Turkey's high income inequality causes higher CO2 emissions. The long-term strategy says that public procurement will prioritize low-carbon products and services. there were few explicit green measures in the 2020 package designed to aid recovery from the country's COVID-19 recession. On the contrary the VAT rate for domestic aviation was cut, and oil and gas were discounted. Almost all the stimulus was detrimental to the environment; according to a 2021 report, only Russia's was less green. Turkey has received climate finance from the Global Environment Facility, the Clean Technology Fund, and various bilateral funding, but is not eligible for the Green Climate Fund because of its status as a developed country under the UNFCCC. A 2017 study concluded that a US$50/tonne carbon price (similar to the 2021 EU price) would reduce emissions by about 20%, mainly by discouraging coal. A more detailed 2020 study said that the electricity sector is key, and that low cost abatement is possible in the building sector. The same study said that low levels of abatement in agriculture would be cheap, but high levels very expensive. such as in wind and solar power. The short-term health co-benefits of climate change mitigation have been estimated at $800 million for Turkey in the year 2028 alone. Academics have estimated that if Turkey and other countries invested in accordance with the Paris Agreement, Turkey would break even around 2060. A 2023 IMF working paper says that carbon pricing can be designed to support poor people. Fossil fuel subsidies According to the OECD, fossil fuel subsidies in 2019 totalled over 25 billion lira (US$ billion), nearly 1% of GDP. According to a 2020 report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development: "Turkey also lacks transparency and continues to provide support for coal production and fossil fuel use, predominantly by foregoing tax revenue and providing state-owned enterprise investment." A MWh of electricity from Turkish lignite emits over a tonne of . Some electricity from these power stations is purchased by the state electricity company at a guaranteed price of US$50–55/MWh until the end of 2027, Petcoke is used in cement production. In other countries fossil fuel subsidies have been successfully scrapped by good communication from government, immediate cash transfers to poor people, energy price smoothing and energy transition support for households and firms. Carbon pricing Boğaziçi University has developed a decision-support tool and integrated assessment model for Turkey's energy and environmental policy. Over 400 (about 9%) of the world's voluntary carbon offset projects are in Turkey: mostly wind, hydro, and landfill methane projects. As elsewhere wildfires are a threat to forest carbon offsets. The main standards are the Gold Standard and the Verified Carbon Standard. Earlier academic assessment suggested a revenue-neutral carbon tax might be best for the Turkish economy, but carbon emission trading is more likely to be accepted politically. The Turkish emissions trading system is due to start in 2025. the UK and other export partners. Turkey received by far the most EU climate-change financing in 2018: also the EBRD is investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy, and has offered to support an equitable transition from coal. Although there is no carbon price, other taxes in 2021 covered 39% of emissions and were equivalent to a carbon price of 22.50 euros. The OECD recommends carbon pricing for all sectors, but road fuel is currently Turkey's only major carbon pricing. Politics Article 56 of the Turkish Constitution states: Everyone has the right to live in a healthy and balanced environment. It is the duty of the State and citizens to improve the natural environment, to protect the environmental health and to prevent environmental pollution. A similar clause in the constitution of the US state of Montana has been used to declare laws that support fossil fuels unconstitutional. However, until production from large gas fields under the Black Sea begins in the mid-2020s, some in Turkey see burning local lignite as essential to lessen the high gas import bill. Likewise, until local production of solar panels and mining lithium for batteries When the treaty was signed in 1992 Turkey had much lower emissions per person, and no historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions. So, the Foreign Ministry argue that Turkey should have been grouped with non-Annex developing countries, which can receive climate finance from the Green Climate Fund. Turkey ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2009. 2010s In a 2011 dispute over air pollution in Turkey, the main opposition Republican People's Party criticised the government for prioritising fossil fuels. The Climate Change and Air Management Coordination Board was created to coordinate government departments, and includes three business organisations. The Environment Ministry chairs it, though other ministries have considerable influence over climate change policy. The Energy Ministry has an Environment and Climate Department (responsible for the GHG inventory) and the Ministry of Treasury and Finance leads on climate financing. to around double the 2020 level. In 2019, Ümit Şahin, who teaches climate change at Sabancı University, said that Turkey saw industrialised Western countries as solely responsible. While discussing their limited actions on climate change, Turkey and other countries cited the forthcoming 2020 United States withdrawal from the Paris Agreement (not knowing at that time that the US would rejoin early the following year) . Turkey was the 16th largest emitting country in 2019. During the 2019 UN Climate Action Summit on achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, Turkey co-led the coalition on the decarbonization of land transport. , the government aimed to keep the share of coal in the energy portfolio at around the same level in the medium and long term. This was explained, in part, because of Turkey's desire to have a diverse mix of energy sources. Rather than increase imports of gas, it wanted to retain domestic coal, albeit with safeguards to reduce the impact on human health and the environment. 2020s Local politics and a just transition – "This is how they earn their daily bread"|alt=colourful tiny model trucks containing coal with "Soma" written on the side in Zonguldak: Turkey's first coal mining region would need help to give up. Although the transition to clean energy increases employment in Turkey as a whole, lost jobs may be concentrated in certain locations and sectors. A 2021 study estimated the mining sector would employ 21 thousand fewer people, 14% of total mining employment in 2018. Similarly, it is hard for livestock farmers to make a profit, there have been no public debates about a just transition. According to former Economy Minister Kemal Derviş, many people will benefit from the green transition, but the losses will be concentrated on specific groups, making them more visible and politically disruptive.At the municipal level, Antalya, Bornova, Bursa, Çankaya, Eskişehir Tepebaşı, Gaziantep, İzmir, Kadıköy, Maltepe, Nilüfer and Seferihisar have sustainable energy and climate plans. A 2021 academic study of local climate change politics said that "local climate action planning takes place independent from the national efforts yet with a commitment to international agreements" and that better co-ordination between local and national government would help planning for climate change adaptation. Turkey ratified the Paris Agreement in 2021: according to Politico the country was persuaded by a 3.2 billion dollar loan from France and Germany for its energy transition, and Turkey's chief negotiator said the threat of the EU CBAM was a factor. National Politics Some suggest that limiting emissions through directives to the state-owned gas and electricity companies would be less effective than a carbon price, but would be more politically acceptable. Turkish citizens are taking individual and political action on climate change to the streets and online, including children demanding action and petitioning the UN. Turkey's Green Party is calling for an end to coal burning TRT World calls natural gas "blue gold". After the 2020/21 droughts, the Nationalist Movement Party (the smaller party in the governing coalition) said that climate change is a national security issue. The threat of climate change had already been securitized by Environment Minister Murat Kurum back in 2019. Also following on from the droughts, all parties in parliament, including smaller opposition parties like the Peoples' Democratic Party and the Good Party, agreed to set up a Parliamentary Research Commission to combat climate change and drought. A draft climate law, including emissions trading, was considered in 2021 and a revised draft in 2023, but there is no emissions trading. In 2023 there was misinformation about this draft, the draft aims to keep the tariff money within the country by starting carbon emission trading. The national energy plan published in 2022 expected 1.7 GW more coal power to be built, but the opposition CHP had already said that no more fossil fuel power plants should be built and that there should be carbon trading. Businesses say the country needs to decarbonize so that money which would otherwise be lost to the CBAM remains in the country: NGOs and academics have such plans, however a February 2022 government-led "Climate Council" of all those groups and others issued over 200 recommendations, but not one for coal phase out. European Climate Action Network Turkey complained that civil society is not properly represented in decision making and in particular that there were no organizations such as theirs in the " Emission Reduction Commission" of the Climate Council. The Climate Change and Air Management Coordination Board () was a government agency of the Republic of Turkey, responsible for coordinating policy against air pollution in Turkey and climate change in Turkey; board meetings were chaired by the Minister of Environment and Urban Planning. In 2018 a report outlining carbon market policy options for Turkey was submitted to the board. the Health Ministry is not actively involved in the permitting of industrial facilities, such as coal-fired power stations, which cause deaths due to air pollution. Despite the Energy Ministry being represented on the board, in 2018 the European Commission criticised the lack of co-ordination between the climate change policy and energy policy of Turkey. energy policy still included mining more coal and subsidizing coal-fired power stations. As of 2022 the board's decisions are not binding. Although the Health and Agriculture Ministries coordinate with each other, there is no formal agreement between Health and Energy or Transport as of 2022. The board was replaced with the Climate Change and Adaptation Coordination Board (CCAMC) and a Climate Change Presidency was created, (which seems to be just a different translation of the “Directorate of Climate Change”. International politics Murat Kurum has said that global cooperation is key to tackling climate change, and US climate change envoy John Kerry has said that the top 20 emitting countries should reduce emissions immediately. Turkey and some other member countries say the Energy Charter Treaty should be changed to help with decarbonization, but because changes must be unanimous this is unlikely to happen. Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) is in discussions with private-sector companies about investment in Black Sea fossil gas. However some academics say that low historical greenhouse gas emissions can only be used as a fairness justification under international environmental law by least developed countries and small island developing states. They say that almost all G20 countries, including Turkey, should reduce their emissions below the 2010 level. but , the European Court of Human Rights has not yet decided whether to hear the case of Duarte Agostinho and Others v. several countries including Turkey, brought by children and young adults. The Paris Agreement was ratified by parliament shortly before the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference. Hakan Mining and Generation Industry & Trade Inc. is constructing Gisagara peat-fired power station in Rwanda. In 2022 the country promised, in its updated first nationally determined contribution(NDC), to cut greenhouse gas emissions 41% compared to business-as-usual by 2030: however this means Turkey's carbon footprint could increase to about 700 Mt by 2030, with emissions peaking by 2038 or before. Academics doubt that emissions could be reduced from a 2038 peak to zero by 2053, The 2053 target was reportedly set without consulting the Energy Ministry, and as of 2023 that ministry has not published a decarbonization roadmap. Research and data access Sabancı University's Shura Energy Transition Center is researching decarbonization pathways. Linear regression, expert judgement and local integrated assessment modelling is used for non-energy projections. However in 2025 Hayrettin Kurt, Chairman of the Audit Committee at the World Energy Council Turkish National Committee, said that facility level data from the Turkish Emissions Trading System will be disclosed to the public. Quantitative estimates of the impact of individual government policies on emissions have not been made or are not publicly available; Space-based measurements of the signs of emissions has allowed public monitoring of the megacity of Istanbul and high emitting power plants since the early-2020s. ==Adaptation==
Adaptation
The Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change coordinates activities to combat climate change in Turkey. The Twelfth Development Plan (2024–2028) mentions adaptation. A national strategy and action plan for 2024 to 2030 adaptation to climate change has been published, but Turkey has yet to submit a National Adaptation Plan to the UNFCCC. Agriculture Minister Bekir Pakdemirli said in 2023 that irrigation was being modernized and that thirsty crops, such as corn, were being swapped out of agriculture in Turkey. Water-conserving landscaping of green spaces in cities has been suggested, and Istanbul has a climate change action plan. A 2023 study suggested that local climate change plans should be better integrated with local spatial plans. The World Bank is funding flood control infrastructure. == Society and culture ==
Society and culture
Education and research Climate change education is an option in 6th, 7th and 8th grades of education in Turkey. As of 2025 there is not much teacher training or school materials, however there is higher education and research at Boğaziçi University's Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies. In 2025 results will be measured by the Programme for International Student Assessment. İklim Masası (Climate Desk) is a news platform with experts writing for the public and as a reference for journalists. Activism . Muslim environmentalists and academics quote the Quran in support of their environmentalism. In Istanbul in 2015, Islamic leaders urged the world's 1.6 billion Muslims to help defeat climate change. In 2020 first lady Emine Erdoğan said that "Every wrong step we take can be a disaster for future generations". In 2019 some Turkish schoolchildren joined the School Strike for Climate. Petition and lawsuits Environmental activist Greta Thunberg and 15 other children filed a petition in 2019 protesting lack of action on the climate crisis by Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, and Turkey saying that, amongst other dangers, more deadly heat waves would affect them and other children in future. The petition challenged the five countries under the Convention on the Rights of the Child: "Comparable emissions to Turkey's rate of emissions would lead to more than 4°C of warming." In 2020, Turkey and 32 other countries were sued at the European Court of Human Rights by a group of Portuguese children. Media and arts in Kadıköy is the first climate change museum in Turkey. In the 1990s independent Açık Radyo (Open Radio) broadcast some of the first media coverage of climate change, and its founder Ömer Madra emphasises "The three Y's in the fight on climate change: Yerel (local) Yatay (horizontal) and Yavaş (slow, no resort to violence)." The station continues, The climate impact of coal power is rarely discussed, and nearly all Turkish media owners have financial interests in fossil fuels. The media covers climate change only during extreme weather events, with insufficient expert opinions or civil-society perspectives. Some think tanks, such as Ember, are respected by both industry and environmentalists. and education is supported by the EU. Protests against opencast coal mining, such as at Akbelen Forest, have been covered by small media outlets such as Yeşil Gazete and Kaldıraç Magazine. Future warming of seawater by Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant is wrongly thought by some to be relevant to climate change. İklim Haber (Climate News) and KONDA Research and Consultancy found in 2018 that over three-quarters of public opinion on climate change thinks that extreme weather has increased. Over 70% of the public acknowledge that current climate crisis is a result of human activities. Some construction companies have been accused of greenwashing, advertising their buildings as environmentally friendly without obtaining any green building certificates. In a 2019 E3G poll of six Belt and Road Initiative countries (including Turkey), solar was the most popular energy source and coal the least popular. Twenty-four Turkish cities committed to the Paris Agreement targets that year, and the United Nations Development Programme partnered with the Turkish Basketball Federation in 2020 to raise public awareness of the fight against climate change. A 2020 study found that the level of public support for a potential carbon tax does not depend on whether the proceeds are used for mitigation and adaptation. In 2023 a draft law was proposed including public information and adding climate change to education in Turkey. Similar to global public opinion most Turks favour climate action. International cooperation with other country leaders at a meeting of the Mediterranean Climate Change Initiative in 2010. According to the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, climate change is one of the world's biggest problems. Turkey was the fifth-largest recipient of multilateral climate funds between 2013 and 2016, receiving $231 million through channels such as the Clean Technology Fund (CTF) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). In 2021, Turkey ratified the Paris Agreement, with all parliamentary members voting to ratıfy. Prior to this, it was one of the last few remaining countries, alongside neighboring country Iran, to not have ratified the agreement. It was the last of the G20 countries to ratify. Their reason for delay, according to the current presidency at the G20 summit in 2020, was the countries "negligible historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions (less than 1%)". Turkey is not party to the Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context (Espoo Convention). In 2021 Turkey ratified the Kigali Amendment to reduce production and use of hydrofluorocarbons. Armenia says that dam construction in Turkey has combined with climate change to reduce flow in the Araks River basin. Turkey will host the 2026 United Nations Climate Change Conference. Turkey sent over a thousand representatives to the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference and joined various initiatives, such as decarbonizing cement production. However it was criticised for not voting to phase-out fossil fuels, with Umit Şahin at Sabancı University Istanbul Policy Center saying that would be good for the economy as Turkey is a fossil fuel importer. == Historical aspects ==
Historical aspects
There were two significant periods of climate change in the Bronze Age. ==See also==
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