Atomic bomb development ,
Manhattan Project director, with a map of the Far East The discovery of
nuclear fission in 1938 made the development of an atomic bomb a theoretical possibility. Fears that a
German atomic bomb project would develop atomic weapons first, especially among scientists who were refugees from Nazi Germany and other fascist countries, were expressed in the
Einstein–Szilard letter to Roosevelt in 1939. This prompted preliminary research in the United States in late 1939. Progress was slow until the arrival of the British
MAUD Committee report in late 1941, which indicated that only 5 to 10 kilograms of
isotopically-pure
uranium-235 were needed for a bomb instead of tons of natural uranium and a
neutron moderator like
heavy water. Consequently, the work was accelerated, first as a pilot program, and finally in the agreement by Roosevelt to turn the work over to the
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to construct the production facilities necessary to produce uranium-235 and
plutonium-239. This work was consolidated within the newly created Manhattan Engineer District, which became better known as the
Manhattan Project, eventually under the direction of Major General
Leslie R. Groves, Jr.. The work of the Manhattan Project took place at dozens of sites across the United States, and even some outside of its borders. It would ultimately cost over US$2 billion (equivalent to about $ billion in ) and employ over 125,000 people simultaneously at its peak. Groves appointed
J. Robert Oppenheimer to organize and head the project's
Los Alamos Laboratory in
New Mexico, where bomb design work was carried out. Two different types of bombs were eventually developed: a
gun-type fission weapon that used uranium-235, called
Little Boy, and a more complex
implosion-type nuclear weapon that used plutonium-239, called
Fat Man. There was a
Japanese nuclear weapon program, but it lacked the human, mineral, and financial resources of the Manhattan Project, and never made much progress towards developing an atomic bomb.
Pacific War In 1945, the Pacific War between the
Empire of Japan and the
Allies entered its fourth year. Most Japanese military units fought fiercely, ensuring that the Allied victory would come at an enormous cost. The 1.25 million battle casualties incurred in total by the United States in World War II included both
military personnel killed in action and
wounded in action. Nearly one million of the casualties occurred during the last year of the war, from June 1944 to June 1945. In December 1944, American battle casualties hit an all-time monthly high of 88,000 as a result of the German
Ardennes Offensive. Worried by the losses sustained, President
Franklin D. Roosevelt suggested the use of atomic bombs on Germany as soon as possible, but was informed the first usable atomic weapons were still months away. America's reserves of manpower were running out. Deferments for groups such as agricultural workers were tightened, and there was consideration of drafting women. At the same time, the public was becoming war-weary, and demanding that long-serving servicemen be sent home. In the Pacific, the Allies
returned to the Philippines,
recaptured Burma, and
invaded Borneo. Offensives were undertaken to reduce the Japanese forces remaining in
Bougainville,
New Guinea and the Philippines. In April 1945, American forces
landed on Okinawa, where heavy fighting continued until June. Along the way, the ratio of Japanese to American casualties dropped from five to one in the Philippines to two to one on Okinawa. Although some Japanese soldiers were
taken prisoner, most fought until they were killed or committed
suicide. Nearly 99 percent of the 21,000 defenders of
Iwo Jima were killed. Of the 117,000 Okinawan and Japanese troops defending
Okinawa in April to June 1945, 94 percent were killed; 7,401 Japanese soldiers surrendered, an unprecedentedly large number. As the Allies advanced towards Japan, conditions became steadily worse for the Japanese people. Japan's merchant fleet declined from 5,250,000
gross register tons in 1941 to 1,560,000 tons in March 1945, and 557,000 tons in August 1945. The lack of raw materials forced the Japanese war economy into a steep decline after the middle of 1944. The civilian economy, which had slowly deteriorated throughout the war, reached disastrous levels by the middle of 1945. The loss of shipping also affected the fishing fleet, and the 1945 catch was only 22 percent of that in 1941. The 1945 rice harvest was the worst since 1909, and hunger and malnutrition became widespread. U.S. industrial production was overwhelmingly superior to Japan's. By 1943, the U.S. produced almost 100,000 aircraft a year, compared to Japan's production of 70,000 for the entire war. In February 1945, Prince
Fumimaro Konoe advised Emperor
Hirohito that defeat was inevitable, and urged him to abdicate.
Preparations to invade Japan depicting
Uncle Sam preparing the public for the invasion of Japan after the end of the war with Germany and Italy|alt=Uncle Sam holding a spanner, rolling up his sleeves Even before the
surrender of Nazi Germany on 8 May 1945, plans were underway for the largest operation of the Pacific War,
Operation Downfall, the Allied invasion of Japan. The operation had two parts: set to begin in October 1945,
Operation Olympic involved a series of landings by the U.S.
Sixth Army intended to capture the southern third of the southernmost main Japanese island,
Kyūshū. This was to be followed in March 1946 by
Operation Coronet, the capture of the
Kantō Plain, near Tokyo on the main Japanese island of
Honshu by the U.S.
First,
Eighth and
Tenth Armies, as well as a
Commonwealth Corps made up of Australian, British and Canadian divisions. The target date was chosen to allow for Olympic to complete its objectives, for troops to be redeployed from Europe, and the
Japanese winter to pass.
Japan's geography made this invasion plan obvious to the Japanese; they were able to predict the Allied invasion plans accurately and thus adjust their defensive plan,
Operation Ketsugō, accordingly. The Japanese planned an all-out defense of Kyūshū, with little left in reserve. In all, there were 2.3 million
Japanese Army troops prepared to defend the home islands, backed by a
civilian militia of 28 million. Casualty predictions varied widely, but were extremely high. The Vice Chief of the
Imperial Japanese Navy General Staff,
Vice Admiral Takijirō Ōnishi, predicted up to 20 million Japanese deaths. The Americans were alarmed by the Japanese buildup, which was accurately tracked through
Ultra intelligence. On 15 June 1945, a study by the Joint War Plans Committee, drawing on the experience of the
Battle of Leyte, estimated that Downfall would result in 132,500 to 220,000 U.S. casualties, with U.S. dead and missing in the range from 27,500 to 50,000.
Secretary of War Henry L. Stimson commissioned his own study by
Quincy Wright and
William Shockley, who estimated the invading Allies would suffer between 1.7 and 4 million casualties, of whom between 400,000 and 800,000 would be dead, while Japanese fatalities would have been around 5 to 10 million. In a meeting with the President and commanders on 18 June 1945, General
George C. Marshall stated that "there was reason to believe" casualties for the first 30 days would not exceed the price paid for
Luzon. Additionally, with the Japanese position rendered "hopeless" by an invasion of their mainland, Marshall speculated that Soviet entry into the war might be "the decisive action" needed to finally "[leverage] them into capitulation." Marshall began contemplating the use of a weapon that was "readily available and which assuredly can decrease the cost in American lives:"
poison gas. Quantities of
phosgene,
mustard gas,
tear gas and
cyanogen chloride were moved to
Luzon from stockpiles in Australia and New Guinea in preparation for Operation Olympic, and MacArthur ensured that
Chemical Warfare Service units were trained in their use. Consideration was also given to using
biological weapons.
Air raids on Japan While the United States had developed plans for an air campaign against Japan prior to the Pacific War, the capture of Allied bases in the western Pacific in the first weeks of the conflict meant that this offensive did not begin until mid-1944 when the long-ranged
Boeing B-29 Superfortress became ready for use in combat.
Operation Matterhorn involved India-based B-29s staging through bases around
Chengdu in China to make a series of raids on strategic targets in Japan. This effort failed to achieve the strategic objectives that its planners had intended, largely because of logistical problems, the bomber's mechanical difficulties, the vulnerability of Chinese staging bases, and the extreme range required to reach key Japanese cities.
Brigadier General Haywood S. Hansell determined that
Guam,
Tinian, and
Saipan in the
Mariana Islands would better serve as B-29 bases, but they were in Japanese hands. Strategies were shifted to accommodate the air war, and the
islands were captured between June and August 1944. Air bases were developed, and B-29 operations commenced from the Marianas in October 1944. The
XXI Bomber Command began missions against Japan on 18 November 1944. The early attempts to bomb Japan from the Marianas proved just as ineffective as the China-based B-29s had been. Hansell continued the practice of conducting so-called high-altitude
precision bombing, aimed at key industries and transportation networks, even after these tactics had not produced acceptable results. These efforts proved unsuccessful due to logistical difficulties with the remote location, technical problems with the new and advanced aircraft, unfavorable weather conditions, and enemy action. on the night of 9–10 March 1945, was the single deadliest air raid in history, with a greater area of fire damage and loss of life than either of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima or Nagasaki.|alt=A vast devastated area with only a few burned out buildings standing Hansell's successor,
Major General Curtis LeMay, assumed command in January 1945 and initially continued to use the same precision bombing tactics, with equally unsatisfactory results. The attacks initially targeted key industrial facilities but much of the Japanese manufacturing process was carried out in small workshops and private homes. Under pressure from
United States Army Air Forces (USAAF) headquarters in Washington, LeMay changed tactics and decided that low-level
incendiary raids against Japanese cities were the only way to destroy their production capabilities, shifting from precision bombing to
area bombardment with incendiaries. Like most
strategic bombing during World War II, the aim of the air offensive against Japan was to destroy the enemy's war industries, kill or disable civilian employees of these industries, and
undermine civilian morale. Over the next six months, the XXI Bomber Command under LeMay firebombed 64 Japanese cities. The
firebombing of Tokyo, codenamed
Operation Meetinghouse, on 9–10 March, killed an estimated 100,000 people and destroyed of the city and 267,000 buildings in a single night. It was the deadliest bombing raid of the war, at a cost of 20 B-29s shot down by flak and fighters. By May, 75 percent of bombs dropped were incendiaries designed to burn down Japan's "paper cities". By mid-June, Japan's six largest cities had been devastated. The end of the
fighting on Okinawa that month provided airfields even closer to the Japanese mainland, allowing the bombing campaign to be further escalated. Aircraft flying from Allied
aircraft carriers and the
Ryukyu Islands also regularly struck targets in Japan during 1945 in preparation for Operation Downfall. Firebombing switched to smaller cities, with populations ranging from 60,000 to 350,000. According to
Yuki Tanaka, the U.S. fire-bombed over a hundred Japanese towns and cities. The Japanese military was unable to stop the Allied attacks, and the country's
civil defense preparations proved inadequate. Japanese fighters and anti-aircraft guns had difficulty engaging bombers flying at high altitude. From April 1945, the Japanese interceptors also had to face American fighter escorts based on
Iwo Jima and Okinawa. That month, the
Imperial Japanese Army Air Service and
Imperial Japanese Navy Air Service stopped attempting to intercept the air raids to preserve fighter aircraft to counter the expected invasion. By mid-1945 the Japanese only occasionally scrambled aircraft to intercept individual B-29s conducting reconnaissance sorties over the country, to conserve supplies of fuel. In July 1945, the Japanese had of
avgas stockpiled for the invasion of Japan. About had been consumed in the home islands area in April, May and June 1945. While the Japanese
military decided to resume attacks on Allied bombers from late June, by this time there were too few operational fighters available for this change of tactics to hinder the Allied air raids. == Preparations ==