Reflexivity, financial markets, and economic theory Soros's writings focus heavily on the concept of
reflexivity, where the biases of individuals enter into market transactions, potentially changing the fundamentals of the economy. Soros argues that different principles apply in markets depending on whether they are in a "near to equilibrium" or a "far from equilibrium" state. He argues that, when markets are rising or falling rapidly, they are typically marked by disequilibrium rather than equilibrium, and that the conventional economic theory of the market (the "
efficient market hypothesis") does not apply in these situations. Soros has popularized the concepts of dynamic disequilibrium, static disequilibrium, and near-equilibrium conditions. but received more attention after the
2008 financial crisis, becoming the focus of an issue of the
Journal of Economic Methodology. The notion of reflexivity provides an explanation of the theories of
complexity economics, as developed at the
Santa Fe Institute, although Soros had not publicized his views at the time the discipline was originally developed there in the 1980s.
Reflexivity in politics Although the primary manifestation of the reflexive process that Soros discusses is its effects in the financial markets, he has also explored its effects in politics. He has stated that whereas the greatest threats to the "
open society" in the past were from communism and fascism (as discussed in
The Open Society and Its Enemies by his mentor
Karl Popper), the largest current threat is from
market fundamentalism. He has suggested that the contemporary domination of world politics and world trade by the United States is a reflexive phenomenon, insofar as the success of military and financial coercion feeds back to encourage increasingly intense applications of the same policies to the point where they will eventually become unsustainable.
View of problems in the free market system Soros argues that the current system of financial speculation undermines healthy economic development in many underdeveloped countries. He blames many of the world's problems on the failures inherent in what he characterizes as
market fundamentalism.
Market predictions Soros's book
The New Paradigm for Financial Markets (May 2008), described a "superbubble" that had built up over the past 25 years and was ready to collapse. This was the third in a series of books he has written that have predicted disaster. As he states: He ascribes his own success to being able to recognize when his predictions are wrong: In February 2009, Soros said the world financial system had in effect disintegrated, adding that there was no prospect of a near-term resolution to the crisis. "We witnessed the collapse of the financial system ... It was placed on life support, and it's still on life support. There's no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom." In January 2016, at an economic forum in Sri Lanka, Soros predicted a
financial crisis akin to the
2008 financial crisis based on the state of the global currency, stock and commodity markets as well as the sinking
Chinese yuan.
Views on antisemitism and Israel When asked what he thought about
Israel, in
The New Yorker, Soros replied: "I don't deny Jews the right to a national existence – but I don't want to be a part of it". According to hacked emails released in 2016, Soros's Open Society Foundation has a self-described objective of "challenging Israel's racist and anti-democratic policies" in international forums, in part by questioning Israel's
reputation as a democracy. He has funded NGOs which have been actively critical of Israeli policies including groups that campaign for the
Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement against Israel. Soros has also said that Jews can overcome antisemitism by "giv[ing] up on the tribalness". In a subsequent article for
The New York Review of Books, Soros emphasized that: I do not subscribe to the myths propagated by enemies of Israel and I am not blaming Jews for anti-Semitism. Anti-Semitism predates the birth of Israel. Neither Israel's policies nor the critics of those policies should be held responsible for anti-Semitism. At the same time, I do believe that attitudes toward Israel are influenced by Israel's policies, and attitudes toward the Jewish community are influenced by the pro-Israel lobby's success in suppressing divergent views. In 2017, Israeli businessman
Beny Steinmetz filed a $10-million lawsuit against Soros, alleging that Soros had influenced the
government of Guinea to freeze Steinmetz's company BSG Resources out of iron ore mining contracts in the African country due to "long-standing animus toward the state of Israel". Steinmetz claims that Soros engaged in a "smear" campaign against him and his companies and blames Soros for scrutiny of him by American, Israeli, Swiss, and Guinean authorities. Soros called Steinmetz's suit "frivolous and entirely false" and said that it was "a desperate PR stunt meant to deflect attention from BSGR's mounting legal problems across multiple jurisdictions". During a 2003 award ceremony for author
Imre Kertész, Soros said that the victims of violence and abuse were becoming "perpetrators of violence", suggesting that this model explained Israel's behavior towards the
Palestinians, which led to walkouts and Soros being booed. In July 2017, a billboard campaign backed by then-Hungarian Prime Minister
Viktor Orbán, which was considered to be antisemitic by the country's Jewish groups, vilified Soros as an enemy of the state, using the slogan "Let's not allow Soros to have the last laugh". The campaign was estimated to have cost 5.7bn
forints (then US$21 million). According to the Israeli ambassador to Hungary, the campaign "evokes sad memories but also sows hatred and fear", a reference to
Hungary's role in the deportation of 500,000 Jews during
the Holocaust. Lydia Gall of
Human Rights Watch asserted that it was reminiscent of Nazi posters during the Second World War featuring "'the laughing Jew'". Orbán and his government's representative said they had a "zero tolerance" of antisemitism, explaining the posters were aiming to persuade voters that Soros was a "national security risk". Soros's son
Alexander said in an interview that his father cares about Israel, and that he "would like to see Israel in
Yitzhak Rabin's image. His views are more or less the common views in
Meretz and in the
Labor Party." According to Alexander, Soros supports a
two-state solution. The younger Soros recounts that after his
bar mitzvah in 1998, his father told him: "If you're serious about being Jewish, you might want to consider immigrating to Israel". In a 2018 interview with
The New York Times, when asked why his father fights for an open society, Alex Soros replied that in a non-Jewish state, a Jew can only feel safe when other minorities are protected, which is one of the most important driving forces why his father has been active in his philanthropy: But he had always "identified firstly as a Jew", and his philanthropy was ultimately an expression of his Jewish identity, in that he felt a solidarity with other minority groups and also because he recognized that a Jew could only truly be safe in a world in which all minorities were protected. Explaining his father's motives, he said, "The reason you fight for an open society is because that's the only society that you can live in, as a Jew—unless you become a nationalist and only fight for your own rights in your own state". In December 2023, Israel's ambassador to the United Nations,
Gilad Erdan, accused Soros of supporting pro-Palestinian organizations "that seek the destruction of the State of Israel as a Jewish state". Soros's son Alexander dismissed these accusations as "distorted and dishonest right-wing attacks."
Views on the U.S. On November 11, 2003, in an interview with
The Washington Post, Soros said that removing President
George W. Bush from office was the "central focus of my life" and "a matter of life and death". He said he would sacrifice his entire fortune to defeat Bush "if someone guaranteed it". Soros gave $3 million to the
Center for American Progress, $2.5 million to
MoveOn.org, and $20 million to
America Coming Together. These groups worked to support Democrats in the
2004 election. On September 28, 2004, he dedicated more money to the campaign and kicked off his own multistate tour with a speech, "Why We Must Not Re-elect President Bush", delivered at the
National Press Club in Washington, D.C. The online transcript of this speech received many views after
Dick Cheney accidentally referred to
FactCheck.org as "factcheck.com" in the vice presidential debate, causing the owner of that domain to redirect all traffic to Soros's site. His 2003 book,
The Bubble of American Supremacy,'''' was a forthright critique of the Bush administration's "
War on Terror" as misconceived and counterproductive, and a polemic against the re-election of Bush. He explains the title in the closing chapter by pointing out the parallels in this political context with the self-reinforcing reflexive processes that generate bubbles in stock prices. When Soros was asked in 2006 about his statement in
The Age of Fallibility that "the main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States", he responded that "it happens to coincide with the prevailing opinion in the world. And I think that's rather shocking for Americans to hear. The United States sets the agenda for the world. And the rest of the world has to respond to that agenda. By declaring a 'war on terror' after
September 11, we set the wrong agenda for the world ... When you wage war, you inevitably create innocent victims." In 2017, Soros described
Donald Trump as a con man, and predicted Trump would fail because he believed Trump's ideas were self-contradictory. Soros also said he believed Trump was preparing for a
trade war and expected financial markets to do poorly. in which he calls for a stronger economic government for Europe using federal means (Common EU treasury, common fiscal supervision, etc.) and warns against the danger of nationalistic solutions to the
Great Recession. The letter was co-signed by
Javier Solana,
Daniel Cohn-Bendit,
Andrew Duff,
Emma Bonino,
Massimo D'Alema, and
Vaira Vīķe-Freiberga. In October 2015, Soros criticized Hungarian prime minister
Viktor Orbán and his handling of the
2015 European migrant crisis: "His plan treats the protection of national borders as the objective and the refugees as an obstacle. Our plan treats the protection of refugees as the objective and national borders as the obstacle." Soros expected that
Brexit would fail and the
Premiership of Theresa May would last only a short time. Soros is opposed to Brexit and donated £400,000 to the anti-Brexit 'Best for Britain' group. Soros also hosted a dinner for Conservative donors at his London home to encourage them to follow his lead. Soros's Open Society Foundations also donated a total of £303,000 to two pro-EU organizations, the European Movement UK and Scientists for EU, and a center-right think-tank, Bright Blue. In 2018, Soros highlighted that Europe faces major challenges related to immigration, austerity, and nations leaving the EU. He holds that Europe is facing an existential crisis, in view of the rise of populism, the refugee crisis and a growing rift between Europe and the United States. Soros has also stated that "the euro has many unresolved problems" which "must not be allowed to destroy the European Union". He advocated replacing the notion of a multi-speed Europe by the aim of a "multi-track Europe" that would allow member states a wider variety of choices.
Views European-African relations In view of the possibility of a further increase of the number of refugees from Africa to Europe, Soros proposes that the European Union devise a "Marshall Plan for Africa" (see
Marshall Plan), fostering education and employment in Africa in order to reduce emigration. In July 2015, Soros stated that a "strategic partnership between the US and China could prevent the evolution of two power blocks that may be drawn into military conflict". In January 2016, during an interview at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Soros stated that "[a] hard landing is practically unavoidable". Chinese state media responded by stating "Soros' challenge to the RMB and Hong Kong dollar are doomed to fail, without any doubt". In January 2019, Soros used his annual speech at the
World Economic Forum, in Davos, to label
Xi Jinping,
General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and
President of China, as the "most dangerous opponent of open societies", saying: "China is not the only authoritarian regime in the world but it is the wealthiest, strongest and technologically most advanced". He also urged the
United States not to allow the Chinese technology companies
Huawei and
ZTE to dominate the
5G telecommunications market as this would present an "unacceptable security risk for the rest of the world". Soros also criticized the newest form of China's
Big Brother-like system of
mass surveillance called the
social credit system, saying it would give Xi "total control" over the people of China. Additionally, Soros is very critical of American companies that ignore Chinese human rights violations for business reasons, for example slamming
BlackRock's decision to invest big in China as detrimental to worldwide democracy and US national security.
Views on Russia and Ukraine In May 2014, Soros told CNN's
Fareed Zakaria: "I set up a foundation in Ukraine before Ukraine became independent from Russia. And the foundation has been functioning ever since and played an important part in events now." In January 2015, he said that "Europe needs to wake up and recognize that it is under attack from Russia" and urged Western countries to expand economic
sanctions against Russia for its support of separatists in eastern Ukraine. In January 2015, Soros called on the European Union to give $50 billion of bailout money to Ukraine. In July 2015, Soros stated that
Putin's annexation of Crimea was a challenge to the "prevailing world order", specifically the European Union. He hypothesized that Putin wants to "destabilize all of Ukraine by precipitating a financial and political collapse for which he can disclaim responsibility, while avoiding occupation of a part of eastern Ukraine, which would then depend on Russia for economic support". In January 2016, 53 books related to Soros's "Renewal of Humanitarian Education" program were withdrawn at the Vorkuta Mining and Economic College in the
Komi Republic, with 427 additional books seized for shredding. A Russian intergovernmental letter released in December 2015 stated that Soros's charities were "forming a perverted perception of history and making ideological directives, alien to Russian ideology, popular". Most of these books were published with funds donated by Soros's charities. In May 2022, Soros stated that the
Russian invasion of Ukraine may be the start of "a
third world war" and that Putin must be defeated "as soon as possible". He also stated that "Other issues that concern all of humanity—fighting pandemics and climate change, avoiding nuclear war, maintaining global institutions—have had to take a back seat to that struggle. That's why I say civilization may not survive."
Views on India and Narendra Modi In February 2023, Soros criticized Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi for his alleged
Islamophobia, cronyism and authoritarianism, saying that "India is...a democracy. But its leader, Narendra Modi, is no democrat. Inciting violence against Muslims was an important factor in his meteoric rise." Modi's
Bharatiya Janata Party accused Soros of trying to undermine Indian democracy. Indian foreign minister
S. Jaishankar claimed that Soros is a "dangerous" person. ==Wealth and philanthropy==