Empire versus nation state Empires can be traced as far back as the recorded history goes and have been the dominant international organization in
world history until the 20th century to the least. Yet a century ago, most of the world was ruled by persons who proudly proclaimed themselves Emperors and were proud of their Empires. Of the great powers, only the United States and France were republics. In his textbook on empires, Michael Doyle observed: Many empires endured for centuries, while the age of the ancient Egyptian, Chinese and Japanese Empires is counted in millennia. Most people throughout history have lived under imperial rule. Despite "efforts in words and wars to put national unity at the center of political imagination, imperial politics, imperial practices, and imperial cultures have shaped the world we live in." Looking at a time frame of several millennia prior to the emergence of a global system,
Robert Gilpin,
Daniel Deudney and
John Ikenberry observed that all pre-modern regional systems were initially anarchic and marked by high levels of military competition. But almost universally, they tended to consolidate into universal empires. For millennia, this propensity was the principal feature of pre-modern politics. pointing to a fundamental political dynamic. This dynamic, according to
Niall Ferguson, Ikenberry and Deudney, is obscured by our fixation on the
Westphalian state. Moreover, the consolidations of European states proceeded synchronously with their imperial expansions worldwide. "Ironically, it was the European empires that carried the idea of the sovereign territorial state to the rest of the world..."
Amitav Acharya and
Barry Buzan sought to apply the discipline to other Asian civilizations. They found the discipline, created in modern Europe, hardly applicabe for the civilizations they selected. Instead of anarchy, international relations appeared usually fixed by the imperial center. A later attempt of
Bridging Two Worlds aimed to introduce insights from early China and India into their present dialogue for deeper mutual understanding, appreciation and friendship. The project’s goals are laudable, reviewed the book Sinologist
Yuri Pines. However, the use of those classics for modern IR woule rather be "detrimental" as the outcome invariably was IR "fiasco" and "quagmire." Diplomatic failures led to total wars and ultimately to universal empire. The author of
The Idea of Nationalism: A Study in Its Origins and Background,
Hans Kohn, acknowledged that it was the opposite idea—of imperialism—that was, perhaps, the most influential single idea for two millennia, the ordering of human society through unified dominion and common civilization. Empire is something like the "darling of
global historians," usually not because they like it, but because empire was the way history shifted to transnational and global stages. The prevalence of empire in history was partly due to peace which it establishes for both the conquerors and the conquered, and the by-product of peace, prosperity. The attitude towards the
imperial peace since the mid-20th century has been overwhelmingly negative. Within the field of
International relations all central concepts have been formulated against a world empire.
John Kennedy called the idea of
Pax Americana "the peace of grave" and the association has been popular ever since. History, however, shows that humans eventually "prefer the peace of graveyard over the very graveyard."
Universal empire Expert on warfare
Quincy Wright generalized on what he called "universal empire"—empire unifying all the contemporary system: German Sociologist Friedrich Tenbruck finds that the macro-historic process of imperial expansion gave rise to
global history in which the formations of universal empires were most significant stages. A later group of political scientists, working on the phenomenon of the current
unipolarity, in 2007 edited research on several pre-modern civilizations by experts in respective fields. The overall conclusion was that the
balance of power was inherently unstable order and usually soon broke in favor of imperial order. Yet before the advent of the unipolarity, world historian
Arnold Toynbee and political scientist
Martin Wight had drawn the same conclusion with an unambiguous implication for the modern world: The earliest thinker to approach the phenomenon of universal empire from a theoretical point of view was
Polybius (2:3):
Johann Gottlieb Fichte, having witnessed the battle at Jena in 1806 when Napoleon overwhelmed Prussia, described what he perceived as a deep historical trend: Fichte's later compatriot, Geographer
Alexander von Humboldt, in the mid-Nineteenth century observed a macro-historic trend of imperial growth in both Hemispheres: "Men of great and strong minds, as well as whole nations, acted under influence of one idea, the purity of which was utterly unknown to them." In 1870, Argentine diplomat, jurist and political theorist
Juan Bautista Alberdi described imperial consolidation. As von Humboldt, he found this trend unplanned and irrational but evident beyond doubt in the "unwritten history of events." He linked this trend to the recent
Evolution theory: Nations gravitate towards the formation of a single universal society. The laws that lead the nations in that direction are the same natural laws that has formed societies and are part of evolution. These evolutionary laws exist disregarding whether men recognize them.
The Grand Inquisitor of
Dostoevski (1880) envisaged a distant future of universal empire ruled by Caesar. The overall unity (human "anthill") has always been one of the main aims of men. The greater was the nation, the more they recognized the need for universal unity. History's great conquerors, such as
Genghis Khan and
Tamerlan, irrationally expressed this greatest necessity of humanity. The world unification entails long suffering but it will be the last suffering of mankind before the universal Caesar stops it and imposes world peace. The Inquisitor reminds Jesus that Satan from the beginning proposed him the sword of Caesar over all kingdoms of the world. The allusion is to
Matthew 4:8 where universal empire and absolute Caesarism are the ultimate temptation. This would have stopped all suffering caused by the lack of unity. But Jesus declined the proposal opting instead to grant humans freedom of choice. Due to human nature, however, humans screwed up to choose unity and instead slaughter each other. Stressing that freedom plunged humanity into unbearbale suffering, the Inquisitor blames Jesus for his rejection of Devil's imperial gift. Moreover, people took his freedom to science which, in the absence of unity, will lead to such "marvels" that the survivors will crawl to the future Caesar begging him to "save them from themselves." The image of Caesar as Savior from wars is common in Rome and other universal empires. People, adds the Inquisitor, will be free only when they reject freedom and recognize the Caesar. As Jesus failed in his primary mission, earthly rulers took the sword of Caesar. By sword they will wield the world into universal empire and thus fulfill mankind's ancient dream of universal unity as initially proposed to Jesus by Antichrist on the mountain. Under the literary style of Dostoevski appears a deep historical insight. In 1946, with the "marvels" of science accomplished,
Atomic Scientists repeated the concept of the Grand Inquisitor in their
One World or None. In 1967, Robert Wesson published a 500-page comparative research on universal empires searching how these organizations, horrible in his view, repeatedly occurred in history and the next he expected for the same reason on the global scale before the year 2000. His outline of the prime cause seems in agreement with the implication of the Grand Inquisitor: "Always... we need a higher power to prevent us from abusing our little powers and hurting one another... Let someone save us from ourselves. We long to have peace and security... Yet we cannot have all this with freedom, for freedom means the ability to be disorderly..." In 1886,
Nietzsche perceived the new warlike age which the Europeans have entered in the "long spun-out comedy of its petty-statism" and, above all, under "parliamentary imbecility." Blaming the shattering of the European empire into small states when the time for petty politics is past, he stressed the threatening attitude of the immense Russia Empire and warned that the next (20th) century "will bring the struggle for the dominion of the world—the compulsion to great politics." The imperial expansion filled the world . Three famous contemporary observers—
Frederick Turner,
Halford Mackinder and
Max Weber and Mackinder proclaimed that the world empire is now in sight.
Friedrich Ratzel observed that the "drive toward the building of continually larger states continues throughout the entirety of history" and is active in the present. He drew "Seven Laws of Expansionism". His seventh law stated: "The general trend toward amalgamation transmits the tendency of territorial growth from state to state and increases the tendency in the process of transmission." He commented on this law to make its meaning clear: "There is on this small planet sufficient space for only one great state." Three other contemporaries—
Kang Youwei,
Josiah Strong and George
Vacher de Lapouge—stressed that imperial expansion cannot indefinitely proceed on the definite surface of the globe and therefore world empire is imminent. Kang Youwei in 1885 believed that the imperial trend will culminate in the contest between Washington and Berlin. The same year, Josiah Strong bet on the Anglo-Saxons to establish a world empire centered on the United States. Vacher de Lapouge in 1899 estimated that the final contest will be between Russia and America in which America is likely to triumph. Writing the same year,
Charles Oman stressed the technological
annihilation of time-space and estimated that a federal union of the Anglo-Saxon race would submit the whole world.
Gabriel de Tarde, also writing in 1899, supposed a "law of evolution" forming universal empires which, in his comparison, have nothing else in common. Peoples on all inhabited continents inevitably, it seems, end in gigantic social "baobabs" unifying all within each's own sphere. As long as these spheres remain isolated from each other, they are destined for universal pacification by universal conquest. Thus we have had various
pax imperia. Unless the French wake up, the future universal pacification will be either Russian or English. Just as all financial competition tends towards a monopoly and the division of parties towards a one party rule, the division of states, all separately eager for domination, runs towards either the "triumph or accepted preponderance" of one state. The above envisaged contests indeed took place, known to us as World War I and II. Writing during the First,
Oswald Spengler in
The Decline of the West compared two emergences of universal empires and implied for the modern world: The Chinese League of States failed as well as the Taoist idea of intellectual self-disarmament. The Chinese states defended their last independence with bitterness but in vain. Also in vain Rome attempted to avoid conquest of the Hellenistic east. Imperialism is so necessary a product of any civilization that when a strongest people refuse to assume the role of master, it is pushed into it. It is the same with us. The
Hague Conference of 1907 was the prelude of World War, the
Washington Conference of 1921 will have been that of other wars. Napoleon introduced the idea of military world empire different from the preceding European maritime empires. The contest "for the heritage of the whole world" will culminate "within two generations" (from 1922). The destinies of small states are "without importance to the great march of things." The strongest race will win and seize the management of the world. Writing during the next World War, political scientists Derwent Whittlesey,
Robert Strausz-Hupé and
John H. Herz concluded: "Now that the earth is at last parceled out, consolidation has commenced." In "this world of fighting superstates there could be no end to war until one state had subjected all others, until world empire had been achieved by the strongest. This undoubtedly is the logical final stage in the geopolitical theory of evolution." Writing in the last year of the War, American theologian Parley Paul Wormer, German historian
Ludwig Dehio, and Hungarian-born writer
Emery Reves drew similar conclusions. Fluctuating but persistent movement occurred through the centuries toward ever greater unity. The forward movement toward ever larger unities continues and there is no reason to conclude that it has come to an end. More likely, the greatest convergence of all time is at hand. "Possibly this is the deeper meaning of the savage world conflicts" of the 20th century. The famous
Anatomy of Peace by Reves, written and published in 1945, supposed that without the industrial power of the United States, Hitler already might have established world empire. Proposing
world federalism, the book warned: Every dynamic force, every economic and technological reality, every "law of history" and logic "indicates that we are on the verge of a period of empire building," which is "the last phase of the struggle for the conquest of the world." As an elimination contest, one of the three remaining powers or a combination "will achieve by force that unified control made mandatory by the times we live in… Anyone of three, by defeating the other two, would conquer and rule the world." If we fail to institute a unified control over the world in democratic way, the "iron law of history" would compel us to wage wars until world empire is finally attained through conquest. Since the former way is improbable due human blindness, we should precipitate the unification by conquest as quickly as possible and start the restoration of human liberties within the world empire.
Atomic bomb and empire Reves added "Postscript" to the
Anatomy, opening: "A few weeks after the publication of this book, the first atomic bomb exploded over the city of Hiroshima…" This new physical fact however has changed nothing in the political situation. The world empire remains inevitable and nothing else in the book would have been said differently had it been written after August 6, 1945. Not much chance we have to establish
world government before the next horrible war between the two superpowers and whoever is victorious would establish the world empire. The book sold an exceptional 800,000 copies in thirty languages, was endorsed by
Albert Einstein and numerous other prominent figures, and in 1950 Reves was nominated for the
Nobel Peace Prize. The year after the War and in the first year of the nuclear age, Einstein and British philosopher
Bertrand Russell, known as prominent pacifists, outlined for the near future a perspective of world empire (world government established by force). Einstein believed that, unless world government is established by agreement, an imperial world government would come by war or wars. Russell expected a
third World War to result in a world government under the empire of the United States and regretted that the United States is not enough “imperialistic” to launch a
preventive nuclear war for this cause. Three years later, another prominent pacifist, theologian
Reinhold Niebuhr, generalized on the ancient Empires of Egypt, Babylon, Persia and Greece to imply for the modern world: "The analogy in present global terms would be the final unification of the world through the preponderant power of either America or Russia, whichever proved herself victorious in the final struggle." Russian colleague of Russell and Niebuhr,
Georgy Fedotov, wrote in 1945: All empires are but stages on the way to the sole empire which must swallow all others. The only question is who will build it and on which foundations. Universal unity is the only alternative to annihilation. Unity by conference is utopian but unity by conquest by the strongest power is not and probably the uncompleted in this War will be completed in the next. "Pax Atlantica" is the best of possible outcomes. Originally drafted as a secret study for the
Office of Strategic Services (the precursor of the
CIA) in 1944 and published as a book three years later,
The Struggle for the World... by
James Burnham concludes: If either of the two Superpowers wins, the result would be a universal empire which in our case would also be a world empire. The historical stage for a world empire had already been set prior to and independently of the discovery of atomic weapons but these weapons make a world empire inevitable and imminent. "The atomic weapons ... will not permit the world to wait." Only a world empire can establish monopoly on atomic weapons and thus guarantee the survival of civilization. A world empire "is in fact the objective of the Third World War which, in its preliminary stages, has already began". The issue of a world empire "will be decided, and in our day. In the course of the decision, both of the present antagonists may, it is true, be destroyed, but one of them must be." The next year, world historian
Crane Brinton similarly supposed that the bomb may in the hands of a very skillful and lucky nation prove to be the weapon that permits that nation to unify the world by imperial conquest, to do what Napoleon and Hitler failed to do. Combined with other "wonders of science," it would permit a quick and easy conquest of the world. In 1951,
Hans Morgenthau concluded that the "best" outcome of World War III would be world empire: Expert on earlier civilizations, Toynbee, further developed the subject of World War III leading to world empire: The year this volume of
A Study of History was published, US Secretary of State
John Foster Dulles announced "
a knock-out blow" as an official doctrine, a detailed
Plan was elaborated and
Fortune magazine mapped the design. Section VIII, "Atomic Armaments", of the famous National Security Council Report 68 (
NSC 68), approved by President Harry Truman in 1951, uses the term "blow" 17 times, mostly preceded by such adjectives as "powerful", "overwhelming", or "crippling". Another term applied by the strategists was "Sunday punch". Having modeled the rise of the world empire on the cases of previous empires, Toynbee noted that, by contrast, the modern ultimate "blow" would be atomic. But he remains optimistic: No doubt, the modern world has far greater capacity to reconstruct than the earlier civilizations had. A pupil of Toynbee,
William McNeill, associated with the case of ancient China, which "put a quietus upon the disorders of the
warring states by erecting an imperial bureaucratic structure ... The warring states of the Twentieth century seem headed for a similar resolution of their conflicts." The ancient "resolution" McNeill evoked was one of the most sweeping universal conquests in world history, performed by
Qin in 230–221 BC. Chinese classic
Sima Qian (d. 86 BC) described the event (6:234): "Qin raised troops on a grand scale" and "the whole world celebrated a great bacchanal".
Herman Kahn of the
RAND Corporation criticized an assembled group of
SAC officers for their war plan (
SIOP-62). He did not use the term
bacchanal but he coined on the occasion an associating word: "Gentlemen, you do not have a war plan. You have a
war orgasm!" History did not completely repeat itself but it passed close.
Circumscription theory According to the circumscription theory of
Robert Carneiro, "the more sharply circumscribed area, the more rapidly it will become politically unified." The Empires of Egypt, China and
Japan are named the most durable political structures in human history. Correspondingly, these are the three most circumscribed civilizations in human history. The Empires of Egypt (established by
Narmer c. 3000 BC) and China (established by
Cheng in 221 BC) endured for over two millennia. Expert on comparative imperiology, Robert G. Wesson, emphasized the unique in world history "repetition of universal empires" in Egypt and China. German Sociologist Friedrich Tenbruck, criticizing the Western idea of progress, emphasized that China and Egypt remained at one particular stage of development for millennia. This stage was universal empire. The development of Egypt and China came to a halt once their empires "reached the limits of their natural habitat".
Sinology does not recognize the Eurocentric view of the "inevitable" imperial fall; Egyptology and
Japanology pose equal challenges. Carneiro explored the Bronze Age civilizations. Stuart J. Kaufman, Richard Little and
William Wohlforth researched the next three millennia, comparing eight civilizations. They conclude: The "rigidity of the borders" contributed importantly to hegemony in every concerned case. Hence, "when the system's borders are rigid, the probability of hegemony is high". The circumscription theory was stressed in the
comparative studies of the Roman and Chinese Empires. The circumscribed Chinese Empire recovered from all falls, while the fall of Rome, by contrast, was fatal. "What counteracted this [imperial] tendency in Europe ... was a countervailing tendency for the geographical boundaries of the system to expand." If "Europe had been a closed system, some great power would eventually have succeeded in establishing absolute supremacy over the other states in the region". In the 1945 book,
The Precarious Balance, on four centuries of the European power struggle,
Ludwig Dehio explained the durability of the European states system by its overseas expansion: "Overseas expansion and the system of states were born at the same time; the vitality that burst the bounds of the Western world also destroyed its unity." In a
more famous 1945 book, Reves similarly argued that the era of outward expansion is forever closed and the historic trend of expansion will result in direct collision between the remaining powers.
Edward Carr causally linked the end of the overseas outlet for imperial expansion and World Wars. In the nineteenth century, he wrote during the Second World War, imperialist wars were waged against "primitive" peoples. "It was silly for European countries to fight against one another when they could still ... maintain social cohesion by continuous expansion in Asia and Africa. Since 1900, however, this has no longer been possible: "the situation has radically changed". Now wars are between "imperial powers."
Hans Morgenthau wrote that the very imperial expansion into relatively empty geographical spaces in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth centuries, in Africa, Eurasia, and western North America, deflected great power politics into the periphery of the earth, thereby reducing conflict. For example, the more attention Russia, France and the United States paid to expanding into far-flung territories in imperial fashion, the less attention they paid to one another, and the more peaceful, in a sense, the world was. But by the late nineteenth century, the consolidation of the great nation-states and empires of the West was consummated, and territorial gains could only be made at the expense of one another.
John H. Herz outlined one "chief function" of the overseas expansion and the impact of its end: Some later commentators drew similar conclusions: The opportunity for any system to expand in size seems almost a necessary condition for it to remain balanced, at least over the long haul. Far from being impossible or exceedingly improbable, systemic hegemony is likely under two conditions: "when the boundaries of the international system remain stable and no new major powers emerge from outside the system." With the system becoming global, further expansion is precluded. The geopolitical condition of "global closure" will remain to the end of history. Since "the contemporary international system is global, we can rule out the possibility that geographic expansion of the system will contribute to the emergence of a new balance of power, as it did so many times in the past." As
Quincy Wright had put it, "this process can no longer continue without interplanetary wars." Sociologist,
Michael Mann, developed the cage metaphor to explain the persistent unity of Egypt. The River Valley was a cage. The whole population was "trapped within the domain of the conqueror," unable to turn backs on emerging authority. A veritable unitary society resulted. Comparing Egypt with other civilizations, Mann concludes: "The social cage was as total as has ever been seen. In this respect it has not been the dominant model of social organization.” Max Ostrovsky remarked that Mann omitted one system which is even more caged—our own. Egypt could be the most caged of historic civilizations but it was not a “total cage’. Modern world system, being global, is a total cage, and this "model of social organization" will remain until the end of history. One of the leading experts on
world-systems theory,
Christopher Chase-Dunn, also noted that circumscription theory is applicable to the global system, since the global system is circumscribed. In fact, within less than a century of circumscribed existence, the global system overcame the centuries-old
balance of power and reached the state of
unipolarity. Given "constant spatial parameters" of the global system, its unipolar structure is neither historically unusual nor theoretically surprising.
Randall Schweller theorized that a "closed international system", such as the global system became a century ago, would reach "
entropy" in a kind of
thermodynamic law. Once the state of entropy is reached, there is no going back. The initial conditions are lost forever. Stressing the curiosity of this fact, Schweller writes that since the moment the modern world became a closed system, the process has worked in only one direction: from many poles to two poles to one pole. Thus, unipolarity might represent entropy—stable and permanent loss of variation—in the global system. in
Qatar Present For
Dominic Lieven, empire is all about unequal distribution of power and consequent domination. Thus the 2000s world order is more imperial than the 19th-century one because instead of several empire of roughly equal power there is one imperial superpower. ‘Empire’ has therefore replaced "
anarchy."
Chalmers Johnson argues that the US global network of hundreds of military bases already represents a global empire in its initial form:
Simon Dalby associates the network of bases with the Roman imperial system:
Kenneth Pomeranz and Harvard Historian
Niall Ferguson share the above-cited views: "With American military bases in over 120 countries, we have hardly seen the end of empire." This "vast archipelago of US military bases … far exceeds 19th-century British ambitions. Britain's imperium consisted of specific, albeit numerous, colonies and clients; the American imperial vision is much more global…" The greatest conquerors who have ever lived only dreamed of a military presence as expansive as the United States has already achieved. Another Harvard historian
Charles S. Maier opens his
Among Empires: American Ascendancy and Its Predecessors with these words: "What a substratum for empire! Compared with which, the foundation of the Macedonian, the Roman and the British, sink into insignificance." On almost any criterion, the American Empire in the 2000s transcends the limits of empire that
John Darwin has observed since 1400 AD. Those writers who compare America to Victorian Britain "betray a staggering ignorance of the history of both." One of the most accepted distinctions between earlier empires and the American Empire is the latter's unprecedented "global" or "planetary" scope. French former Foreign Minister
Hubert Vedrine wondered: "The situation is unprecedented: What previous empire subjugated the entire world...?" The quests for universal empire are old but the present quest outdoes the previous in "the notable respect of being the first to actually be global in its reach."
James Kurth found that there was "only one empire--the global empire of the United States." Another historian
Paul Kennedy, who in 1986
predicted the imminent US "
imperial overstretch," in 2002 acknowledged about the present world system:
Walter Russell Mead observes that the United States attempts to recreate "globally" what the ancient empires of Egypt, China and Rome had each accomplished on a regional basis. Professor Emeritus of Sociology at the University of Leeds,
Zygmunt Bauman, concludes:
Times Atlas of Empires numbers 70 empires in world history. Niall Ferguson lists numerous parallels between them and the United States. He concludes: "To those who would still insist on American exceptionalism, the historian of empires can only retort: as exceptional as all the other 69 empires."
Fareed Zakaria stressed one element not exceptional for the American Empire—the concept of
exceptionalism. All dominant empires thought they were special. "Each empire is unique, each regards itself as holding the truth of the world, each sees its mission as realizing that truth throughout the whole world." Historian Paul A. Kramer suggested a comparative history of imperial exceptionalisms themselves. The five past cases under concern demonstrate that very few policy makers were aware that their state was on the brink of empire when the key transformation occurred. Later authors, knowing the outcome (empire), write either teleological or tautological histories.
Thucydides and
Polybius teleologically described empire as the natural culmination of an impersonal process. Others describe pre-imperial events as rational planning of empire, though the participants of those events had no such idea and acted out of different considerations. One of the contributors to
The Imperial Moment, Roman Historian
Arthur Eckstein, in his earlier research had already asked the same question, "At what point does a state begin to have an empire?" and found that this point pre-dates the collective recognition of the imperial situation. The Mediterranean unipolarity was established in 189 BC, but to many intelligent and experienced Greek politicians, according to Polybius (
Histories 1:1–4; 29:21, 27), this did not actually become clear until after 168 BC. Empires evolve from a long series of events in which empire has not been an intended outcome. Having criticized Thucydides and Polybius for their "teleological" approach, the Authors of
The Imperial Moment drew the same teleological conclusion of empire as the natural culmination of an impersonal process. Empires often seem inevitable after the fact, but inconceivable beforehand. The fact of empire precedes the understanding of the existence of empire. Ideological recognition comes rather late in the game. Views of empire as impersonal process are most prominent in theses related to
defensive imperialism. In the case of the United States, the sixth case in
The Imperial Moment, the attitude is similar. The imperial situation is new but well known in history and commonly called “empire.” To avoid the word, many alternative terms were tried, such as liberal hegemony, hyperpower, unipolarity, and others. The very panoply of terms suggests that Americans find themselves in a new imperial situation, “largely of their own making, which they do not fully understand.” Eventually, some “unusually perceptive individuals” will grasp the imperial reality and announce the final destination of a “torturous” centuries-long journey: “Last stop, ‘empire.’ Everybody off.”
Future In 1945, historian
Ludwig Dehio predicted global unification due to the circumscription of the global system, although he did not use this term. Being global, the system can neither expand nor be subject to external intrusion as the European states system had been for centuries: Fifteen years later, Dehio confirmed his hypothesis: The European system owed its durability to its overseas outlet. "But how can a multiple grouping of world states conceivably be supported from outside in the framework of a finite globe?" During the same time,
Quincy Wright developed a similar concept. Balance-of-power politics has aimed less at preserving peace than at preserving the independence of states and preventing the development of world empire. In the course of history, the balance of power repeatedly re-emerged, but on ever-wider scale. Eventually, the scale became global. Unless we proceed to "interplanetary wars," this pattern can no longer continue. In spite of significant reversals, the "trend towards world unity" can "scarcely be denied." World unity appears to be "the limit toward which the process of world history seems to tend." The same "interplanetary" motif is present also in the
Anatomy of Peace: The era of outward expansion is forever closed. "Until and unless we are able to communicate with another planet, the theater of human history will be limited to geographically determined, constant and known dimensions." The historic trend of expansion will result in direct collision between the remaining powers. Multiplied by modern technology, the centripetal forces will accomplish what the greatest empires of the past failed. "For the first time in human history, one power can conquer and rule the world." Seven later scholars—
Hornell Hart,
Raoul Naroll, Louis Morano,
Rein Taagepera, the author of the circumscription theory
Robert Carneiro and
Jesse H. Ausubel & Cesare Marchetti—
quantitatively researched expanding imperial cycles. Initially, the imperiometric scholars worked with historical atlases but the advent of YouTube created a more dynamic visualization. Later spot-checks with
Wikipedia showed few disagreements. These predictions surprised their many contemporaries, as the 20th century has seen falls of empires, decolonization, and increase in the number of independent states. Nevertheless, the authors explained, when viewed within the millennial context, this recent reversal appears akin to random fluctuation. Since the dawn of history, the total number of separate polities has been reduced from thousands of tribes and states to about 200 and the number was even less in recent history. None of the authors is
determinist: "The future is not obliged to continue past trends; it just often does..." The reversal of the trend in 20th century those scholars stated, according to Max Ostrovsky, does not exist. Instead, the 20th century is the point when the historical atlases they worked with reverse their approach and begin painting every nominal sovereignty in different color. They had not done so for the earlier history. Most imperial provinces in history were nominally independent To preserve the consistent approach, Ostrovsky says, in the 20th century we should switch from historical atlases to the
map of the Unified Combatant Command. Though unnoted by contemporary imperiometric scholars, the phenomenon reflected in the latter map was envisaged by the founder of the
Paneuropean Union,
Richard von Coudenhove-Kalergi yet in 1943, when he drew a specific and immediate future imperial project: After the War America is bound "to take over the command of the skies." The danger of "the utter annihilation of all enemy towns and lands" can "only be prevented by the air superiority of a single power ... America's air role is the only alternative to intercontinental wars." Despite his outstanding anti-imperialism, Coudenhove-Kalergi detailed: Coudenhove-Kalergi envisaged a kind of
Pax Americana modeled on "Pax Romana": This period would be necessary transitory stage before
World State is eventually established, though he did not specify how the last transformation is expected to occur. Coudenhove-Kalergi's follower in the teleological theory of World State, Toynbee, specified two ways. One is by wars going on to a bitter end at which one surviving great power "knocks out" its last remaining competitor and establishes world empire, like the earlier empires used to on the regional scale. The other alternative is the United Nations. Having devoted his life to the study of history and international affairs, Toynbee did not bet on the United Nations. Instead, he identified symptoms of the traditional power politics leading to the world empire by a universal conquest. The next "architect of a Pax Ecumenica," known more commonly as
Pax Americana, demonstrated "more patience, prudence, and tact." Consequently, as President
Dwight Eisenhower put it, the NATO allies became "almost psychopathic" whenever anyone talked about a US withdrawal, and the reception of his successor
John F. Kennedy in Berlin was "almost hysterical," as Chancellor
Konrad Adenauer characterized it.
John Ikenberry finds that the Europeans wanted a stronger, more formal and more imperial system than the United States was initially willing to provide. In the end the United States settled for this "form of empire—a Pax Americana with formal commitments to Europe." According to a much debated thesis, the United States became "empire by invitation." The period discussed in the thesis (1945–1952) ended precisely the year Toynbee theorized on "some future architect of a Pax Ecumenica." Dissociating America from Rome, Eisenhower gave a pessimistic forecast. In 1951, before he became president, he had written on West Europe: "We cannot be a modern Rome guarding the far frontiers with our legions if for no other reason than that these are not, politically, our frontiers. What we must do is to assist these [West European] peoples." Two years later, he wrote: When it was decided to deploy US divisions to Europe, no one had "for an instant" thought that they would remain there for "several decades"—that the United States could "build a sort of Roman Wall with its own troops and so protect the world." Eisenhower assured
Soviet first secretary Nikita Khrushchev on Berlin in 1959: "Clearly we did not contemplate 50 years in occupation there." It lasted, remarks
Marc Trachtenberg, from July 1945 to September 1994, 10 months short of 50 years. Notably, when the US troops eventually left, they left eastward. Confirming the theory of the "empire by invitation," with their first opportunity East European states extended the "invitation."
Oswald Spengler envisaged the "Imperial Age" for the world in both senses of "empire," spatial (as a world-wide unit ruled by one center) and governmental (as ruled by Emperor). Published in 1922,
The Decline of the West predicts the triumph of the strongest race in the fight for the whole world within "two generations" and of "Caesarism" over democracy "within a century." In 2022, the Spenglerian century ended short of global "Caesarism," albeit two years before its end
Donald Trump had been advised to
cross the Rubicon. Chalmers Johnson regards the global military reach of the United States as empire in its "initial" form. For Charles H. Fairbanks, it is an empire "in formation" and for
Kimberly Kagan an "emerging" empire.
Dimitri Simes finds that most of the world sees the United States as a "nascent" imperial power. Some scholars concerned how this empire would look in its ultimate form. The ultimate form of empire was described by Michael Doyle in his
Empires. It is empire in which its two main components—the ruling core and the ruled periphery—merged to form one integrated whole. At this stage the
empire as defined ceases to exist and becomes
world state. Doyle exemplifies the transformation on the case of the Roman Emperor
Caracalla whose
edict in AD 212 extended the Roman citizenship to all inhabitants of the Mediterranean world. Doyle's case of the Roman Empire had also been evoked by
Susan Strange in her 1988 article, "The Future of the American Empire." Strange emphasized that the most persistent empires were those which best managed to integrate the ruling core and the peripheral allies. The article is partly a reply on the published a year earlier bestseller
The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers which predicted imminent US "imperial overstretch." Strange found this outcome unlikely, stressing the fact that the peripheral allies have been successfully recruited into the American Empire. Envisaging a world empire of either the United States or the Soviet Union (whoever is victorious in World War III),
Bertrand Russell projected the Roman scenario too: "Like the Romans, they will, in the course of time, extend citizenship to the vanquished. There will then be a true world state, and it will be possible to forget that it will have owed its origin to conquest." International Relations scholar
Alexander Wendt supposes world empire by universal conquest and subsequent consolidation, provided the conquering power recognizes all conquered members. For his example he also invokes the Roman Empire. In satirical criticism of the European pro-American stance in the wake of September 11, French Philosopher
Régis Debray warned that the logical culmination of the motto "We are all Americans" would be a modernized Edict of Caracalla extending US citizenship to all the West and thus establishing the
United States of the West. In the above views, the
Edict of Caracalla is an advanced form of empire.
Emmanuel Todd and
Magdi Allam disregarded this nuance and compared the Edict with the US citizenship policy in the early 21st century. Todd found the US policy of this time lagging far behind the Roman under Caracalla while Allam stressed that the United States is also a nation forged by immigrants and already the most successful contemporary expression of multiculturalism the world has seen. To the case of Caracalla, Toynbee added the
Abbasid cosmopolitan reformation of 750 AD. Both "were good auguries for the prospect that, in a post-Modern chapter of Western history, a supranational commonwealth originally based on the hegemony of a paramount power over its satellites might eventually be put on the sounder basis of a constitutional partnership in which all the people of all the partner states would have their fare share in the conduct of common affairs." To the cases of Caracalla and the Abbasid revolution, Max Ostrovsky added the
Han overthrow of
Qin in 206 BC and more gradual cosmopolitan reformations he finds characteristic to all persistent empires and expects in the future global empire. The tragedy of empire is that it is disastrous for the conquered in the beginning and eventually for the conquerors, as they lose their privileges and often the very identity, becoming assimilated within the conquered population.
Rein Taagepera called it imperial "self-ethnocide." When this distant stage comes to the American Empire, according to Ostrovsky, the
green card is abolished since all Earth inhabitants have it by birth.
Crane Brinton expected that the world empire would not be built instantly but not as slowly as Rome, for much in the modern world has been speeded up.
Charles Galton Darwin, a grandson of the
father of Evolution Theory, suggested that China, as an isolated and enduring civilization, seems to provide the most relevant model for the global future. As the Chinese Empire, the regions of the world, periodically albeit more rarely, will be united by force into an uneasy world-empire, which will endure for a period until it falls. Along China, Ostrovsky mentions Egypt as a model for the future but, by contrast, estimates that the intermediate periods of the global empire will be shorter and rarer. ==See also==