Americas Brazil Brazil is almost entirely dependent on imported fertilizers, with nearly half of its supply transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Given that Brazil accounts for nearly 60% of global
soybean exports and is a major exporter of corn and sugar, particularly to the Middle East, a sustained fertilizer shortage or price surge could compel farmers to reduce usage, causing a drop in crop yields with significant implications for global food security. Analysts from
Rystad Energy suggested that oil exporters looking to diversify their sources from the Middle East could contribute to a fossil fuel boom by the 2030s, particularly in Brazil,
Guyana and
Suriname.
Canada Chile As
sulfuric acid exports from the Persian Gulf were strangled China responded by halting its own exports in an attempt to secure its internal supply. Chilean state-owned company
Codelco estimated in March 2026 that the war had raised its production costs for copper in 5%.
United States In the United States, domestic energy production buffered immediate shocks, but uncertainty risked undermining 2026 growth outlooks. The
second Trump administration declared that the
arms industry quadrupled the weapons production to solve the projected exhaust of its defensive systems due to the military operations in the Iran War, expecting to secure the long-term sustainability of US-Israel interceptor supplies. Trump stated he is not concerned if gas prices go up, saying "If they rise, they rise." The war also puts pressure on the national budget as the cost of war exceeding $200 billion. The first and most important blow to US markets has come from the energy channel. According to the New York Times, the suspension of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of the world's oil passes) and the wandering of about 200 ships in the region have disrupted the supply chain. Saudi Arabia's largest refinery and Qatar's export facilities have also been targeted by drone attacks. These disruptions have been directly transmitted to US markets, with Brent crude jumping 15% to $83 per barrel by 5 March 2026. Gasoline prices in the US rose 7.5% to $3.20 per gallon. US stock markets have also not been immune to this tension. Rising oil and gasoline prices have reduced the purchasing power of American consumers. "Rising oil prices weigh on economic growth and push up inflation," emphasize some economists, according to the Turkish
Anadolu Agency. Goldman Sachs says the risk of a downturn over the next 12 months has risen to 30%, driven by the surge in oil prices. The bank expects the unemployment rate to rise to 4.6% by the end of 2026, up from 4.4% in February, as hiring slows. Several firms now see inflation running closer to 3% this year rather than 2%, eroding disposable incomes and weighing on job creation.
Venezuela After the
U.S. intervention earlier in the year, Venezuela was forecast to increase oil production by 1 million barrels a day by 2035, with an apparent oil boom coming at a beneficial time when key economies aimed to diverge oil imports from the Middle East. Europe's rise in jet fuel shipments from the U.S. appeared to come from oil imported by U.S. refineries that heeded Donald Trump's call to invest in the region. However,
Wood Mackenzie director Dylan White suggested that Venezuela's output, despite having grown impressively between the U.S. intervention and the start of the war, would not be enough to compensate for the disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the rise in production in Venezuela and Brazil could be stopped if the Strait reopened quickly. The conflict has exposed Asian economies' vulnerability to a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. On 4 March LNG spot prices in Asia more than doubled to three year highs, reaching $25.40 per million
British thermal units (MMBtu) as
QatarEnergy declared force majeure at its giant
Ras Laffan LNG plant. Ras Laffan is the world's largest liquefaction facility and is responsible for 20% of global LNG production. The majority (around 80%) of its volumes serve customers in Asia, mostly in China, Japan, India, and South Korea. According to analysts, growth is expected to be cut up to 1.3% in developing Asia and the Pacific countries.
Australia Prices have risen at local petrol stations, and on 12 March, Australian energy minister
Chris Bowen authorised a 60-day suspension of national fuel quality standards, allowing domestic refineries to produce and sell petrol with higher levels of sulphur, which was normally reserved for export. The action aimed to introduce an additional 100 million litres of fuel per month over a 60-day period. The wholesale diesel price rose to per litre by 23 March, and it was feared that the shortage of fertiliser (
urea) could threaten the autumn planting season for the
agricultural sector. On 24 March, the fuel quality standards were also relaxed for diesel. Although local prices had increased, Australia had not yet felt the full impact of oil supply shortages caused by the war, as there is a lag in the supply chain from Asia, and physical shortages have not yet reached Australia's shores. Hundreds of petrol stations reported fuel shortages. The government said that fuel deliveries are assured until mid-April.
China China has been affected by disruption to the trade routes along the
Belt and Road initiative that import petroleum and export manufactured goods. However, China has taken measures to mitigate potential petroleum shortages with reserves and investment in renewable energy. China has engaged in mediation efforts in several regional conflicts including
Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy war,
Afghan conflict and the
2026 Afghanistan–Pakistan War. China officially declared itself
neutral country, while seeking to maintain relations with potential future governments in Iran, as Iran is China's third-largest supplier of crude oil (being expected an increase in China's energy import costs and overall inflationary pressures) and China has invested over US$100 billion in energy and infrastructure projects in Iran (which could be halted by the fighting or by sanctions from the US against the renminbi settlement system between China and Iran). Some surveys have reported a relatively positive public outlook toward the war in China. China restricted exports of fertilizers, including urea, to prioritize domestic
agricultural needs amid rising global prices and supply chain disruptions. This dependency is especially notable in the fertilizer sector, with over 40% of India's
urea and
phosphate sourced from the region. Following a drop in LNG output from Qatar, India reduced production at three urea plants. As a leading global food producer, accounting for approximately 25% of
rice exports in 2024, this dependence may affect global supply chains during periods of regional instability. While India was a major ally of
Iran during the anti-colonial era, New Delhi has strengthened its relationship with
Israel, including Prime Minister
Narendra Modi's visit to the
Knesset in February 2026, which some analysts argue contributed to reduced engagement with Iran, potentially contributing to closer military and economic ties between Iran,
China and
Russia. To mitigate the energy shock caused by the closure of the
Strait of Hormuz, the
U.S. Treasury granted India a temporary 30-day emergency waiver on 6 March 2026, authorizing the purchase of stranded
Russian oil cargoes to stabilize domestic fuel prices. However, the conflict has had significant impacts on the West Asian diaspora; a large-scale departure of foreign residents has followed strikes on civilian infrastructure, leading analysts to conclude that the war has challenged perceptions of cities like
Dubai as stable destinations for migrant workers. The term 'returnees' refers to a socio-economic trend in
India triggered by the war. As of March 2026, over 220,000 Indian nationals have been repatriated from the
Gulf Cooperation Council region and
Iran due to the escalating conflict and the blockade of the
Strait of Hormuz. Unlike the temporary labor migrations of the past, this reverse migration involves a high percentage of skilled professionals and business owners. Economic data from March 2026 indicates that this demographic is bypassing over-congested Tier-1 metros in favor of Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities, driving a 14% growth in these secondary real estate markets. The influx of "Returnee" capital is described by some analysts as a strategy to offset multiple economic pressures, as the Indian economy grapples with falling remittances and rising energy costs ($100+ per barrel) caused by the ongoing war.
Philippines The
Philippines' overall supply of oil has been among the most affected, more so than Thailand and Vietnam, causing the
Philippine Peso (PHP) to drop to a record low of 61.567 PHP per
USD on 29 April 2026. Prior to that, the prices of
petroleum products also increased with diesel prices in the country hiking up by 38.6%. Alongside this, electricity prices all throughout the country have also been slated to go up in response to the increase in usage during the summer months accompanied by high oil prices. In response to rising prices, several government agencies have implemented a four-day work week to reduce electricity costs. On 24 March 2026, President
Bongbong Marcos declared
a state of national energy emergency due to the rising oil prices.
Other petrol station in
Thailand closing with a sign stating "out of diesel" on 22 March 2026 as the country was hit by a fuel shortage due to its reliance on shipping via the Strait of Hormuz The
Sri Lankan government reintroduced a weekly fuel ration it had previously implemented in
2022, and brought in a
four-day work week for government and public education employees to limit fuel usage. In
Bhutan, citizens made long lines outside fuel stations amid fears that the war in Iran will increase gas and fuel prices. The Department of Trade appealed for calm, saying that Bhutan has enough gas and fuel and that there is no indication of any disruption. Many tourists were stranded in Vietnam after airlines were forced to delay or cancel flights through the Middle East.
Africa Since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, fears have developed that it will spill over into
Egypt through the
Gaza theater or the
Red Sea crisis. The
Egyptian government has been considering the conflict as both a general threat to the security of the
Arab World and a question of economic
national security, due to the effects of the higher oil prices that increase the cost of imports for Egypt and place pressures on the
Egyptian economy (specially by straining the public finances and complicating the efforts to stabilise the economy after the
Egyptian Crisis). Another preoccupation for Egypt is that the conflict reduced the traffic through the
Suez Canal, which is declining vital shipping activity and costing approximately $10 billion in losses according to the
World Bank Group. This has led to a situation of near
state of emergency directed against the price-gougers, who could be processed in military courts by
treason due to harming the traffic of shipping companies in Suez and the national interests of Egypt as an import-dependent economy. Another indirect economical effect is that the Iran conflict quietly stalled the
GERD negotiations between Egypt and
Sudan with
Ethiopia (as the projected international mediators, such as the US,
UN and
African Union has diverted its diplomatic efforts to the
2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis), so Ethiopia has been operating the dam without a binding agreement with the other Nile river states. The
Ethiopia economy has been projected severe
price shocks as their economy relies heavily on imported refined petroleum (Ethiopia sources the vast majority of its fuel from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait) due to not producing commercial crude oil. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has provoked skyrocketing risk premiums and maritime insurance costs, which translate immediately into
inflated import prices for Ethiopia, while the Red Sea crisis is threatening the logistical risks due to the fact that 90–95% of its petroleum imports pass through a single chokepoint at the
Port of Djibouti, which is provoking speculation due the fears of renewed Houthis attacks that will be elevating freight costs. Despite this, economists have proposed that Ethiopia could avoid the worst part of a global recession if they capitalize on its 95% renewable electricity generation (driven by projects like the
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam) to accelerate a shift toward electric mobility and so reducing the transport sector's demand for imported petroleum. The
Port of Berbera in
Somaliland (an ally of
Israel and of the
United Arab Emirates, who have a military presence in the area) has been considered a military target by
Houthis (and their
Al-Shabaab allies). The Israel recognition of Somaliland included discussions of Israel having a military base in Berbera, with Houthis warning after the recognition that "Israeli assets in Somaliland would be legitimate military targets", risking regional stability in the
Horn of Africa. Similar notices has been sent by the Houthis to the rival
Presidential Leadership Council, threatening to attack any US or
Saudi military facilities in
Yemen on a
current civil war (as also Iran has reportedly increased diplomatic engagement with Ethiopia in the context of the
Red Sea crisis).
Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, president of
Djibouti and ally of
Saudi Arabia, denounced that both Israel and United Arab Emirates are driving strategic realignments across
Northeast Africa that risk intensifying current conflicts (like the
Somali Civil War,
Sudanese Civil War,
Insurgency in Chad,
Libyan crisis, etc.) and a possible merging of them with the
Iran–Israel proxy conflict. In Kenya, the
Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority announced record high fuel surges in mid April. This resulted in public transport operators hiking their fares by roughly 25% dependent on various factors. These actions are expected to raise inflation and increase prices for basic goods and important services. == See also ==